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Thread: MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo released updated prospect list

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by 071063 View Post
    Why do people keep saying Sano might be a September call up? It makes no sense! Rosario is a slim possibility but it will not and should not happen for Sano! Get off it people!
    Maybe people keep saying that because the front office has mentioned it before. A Sept call up doesn't mean they have made the team next year. It is just away to see your prospects and reward them for having a good year.

  2. #22
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    I could see them giving them each a cup of coffee this sept, especially if more and more trades are made.

    Neither one will be up full time until next June and that is a GOOD thing. I know people will prob be calling the Twins cheap etc, but with a guy like Sano you absolutely keep that extra year of team control at any cost, especially since the Twins "real" window probably starts in 2015, even though I think they can compete next year.
    Sano doesn't need to be added to the 40 man this offseason. He's not getting a cup of coffee in September. If they add him to the roster and send him back, they lose an option. He'll get called up in 2014 when the Twins brass decides that they are going to stick with him for the remainder of the season.

  3. #23
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AROG View Post
    When you really look at it, the guys they have listed there almost all have a "potential" to be better then your list. I could see Meija, Walker, and Baxendale having a case to break the list but at the expense of maybe Goodrum, Melotakis and Harrison. And to me I am not sure I think the Meija has better upside then Goodrum, or Walker over Harrison, or Baxendale over Melotakis. The prospect list is all about potential upside to be a star.
    I fully get that different lists have different objectives, but I'm not so sure Eades, Bard, Chargois, Gonsalves, nor Turner have done anything to show the upside of a star. Turner's bat profiles him as the next Drew Butera.

    Again, I'd personally list a number of guys over all five of them. In my opinion, Mayo shows too much love for guys drafted in the top 3 rounds in recent years and not enough love for guys who have actually produced in the minors.

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    Not bad from 1-10, but I agree with the comments about pretty lazy -- especially 11-20.

    I would have liked to see Adam Walker, Albers, Darnell, Tonkin, Pinto, Vargas, Meija, Hicks, Summers, Williams, and a few others before some of the names on there.
    I think Walker, Pinto and a few others are going to get noticed soon. Look at the bright side, there are serveral good prospects that did not make it in the top 20. That is some pretty darn good depth.

  5. #25
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    Again, I'd personally list a number of guys over all five of them. In my opinion, Mayo shows too much love for guys drafted in the top 3 rounds in recent years and not enough love for guys who have actually produced in the minors.
    I think this is a flaw in prospecting in general. Lots of interest in the new girl simply because she's new. That's how guys like Arcia consistently get underrated despite the fact that they've put up results at every stop.

  6. #26
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    I fully get that different lists have different objectives, but I'm not so sure Eades, Bard, Chargois, Gonsalves, nor Turner have done anything to show the upside of a star. Turner's bat profiles him as the next Drew Butera.

    Again, I'd personally list a number of guys over all five of them. In my opinion, Mayo shows too much love for guys drafted in the top 3 rounds in recent years and not enough love for guys who have actually produced in the minors.
    Eades was a top-of-2nd-round pick out of a top college. He's been successful in college and touches 94. I personally have him in a (not-yet-existing, but still-in-my-mind) Top 10.

    Frankly, most (someone else can figure it out) big leaguers were drafted in the first three rounds of the draft, top 100 pick types. So, there's probably some certainty in a list like that. International is always kind of a question mark.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Sano doesn't need to be added to the 40 man this offseason. He's not getting a cup of coffee in September. If they add him to the roster and send him back, they lose an option. He'll get called up in 2014 when the Twins brass decides that they are going to stick with him for the remainder of the season.
    Are you sure about that? I don't think September call ups use an option but I am not positive. I tried to do some searching but my google-fu is poor, I think I need invest some skill points during my next level up, but was only able to find this anything-but-official page clarifying:

    Pirates Prospects » Previewing the September Call-Ups

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I think this is a flaw in prospecting in general. Lots of interest in the new girl simply because she's new. That's how guys like Arcia consistently get underrated despite the fact that they've put up results at every stop.
    People were saying this last year with Buxton when doing their own personal top Twins lists. Players taken in the top 5 picks have a 88% chance to make it to the bigs and a 34% chance to have an impact. While Stewart could be in the 12% that dont, odds are against it. You just don't find many guys with his tools.

  9. #29
    Senior Member All-Star Badsmerf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    Are you sure about that? I don't think September call ups use an option but I am not positive. I tried to do some searching but my google-fu is poor, I think I need invest some skill points during my next level up, but was only able to find this anything-but-official page clarifying:

    Pirates Prospects » Previewing the September Call-Ups
    I'm pretty sure he just has to be on the 40 man and it doesn't burn an option. That is why rosters expand and so many minor league guys get looks.
    Do or do not. There is no try.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    Eades was a top-of-2nd-round pick out of a top college. He's been successful in college and touches 94. I personally have him in a (not-yet-existing, but still-in-my-mind) Top 10.

    Frankly, most (someone else can figure it out) big leaguers were drafted in the first three rounds of the draft, top 100 pick types. So, there's probably some certainty in a list like that. International is always kind of a question mark.
    Picks 1-5 have a 88% chance to make it to the bigs for at least a cup of coffee. Rest of the first round is about a ~70% chance. Supplemental 1st rounders and second rounders have about a 50% chance to make it to the bigs. The farther you go down the draft the less likely you are to make the bigs and/or make an impact.

    Eades is a damn good prospect and according to Christopher Crawford could be one of the first SPs to the bigs.

  11. #31
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    Are you sure about that? I don't think September call ups use an option but I am not positive. I tried to do some searching but my google-fu is poor, I think I need invest some skill points during my next level up, but was only able to find this anything-but-official page clarifying:

    Pirates Prospects » Previewing the September Call-Ups
    Not for being called up in September. They lose an option if they put him on the 40 man this year and then send him to the minors next year. He doesn't need to go on the 40 man until after next season, so the only way he gets put on the 40 man prior to that is if the Twins have no intention of sending him back down at all during 2014 or what's left of that season.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    People were saying this last year with Buxton when doing their own personal top Twins lists. Players taken in the top 5 picks have a 88% chance to make it to the bigs and a 34% chance to have an impact. While Stewart could be in the 12% that dont, odds are against it. You just don't find many guys with his tools.
    I wasn't talking about Stewart in particular. It was more Eades and Turner in relation to where Mayo ranked them. I tend to agree with the high ranking on Stewart and would have him in the top 5 somewhere (though I still place emphasis on actual results).

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Eades is a damn good prospect and according to Christopher Crawford could be one of the first SPs to the bigs.
    Maybe, but considering he was immediately placed in a short season league I'm doubtful. Only four other college age pitchers chosen in the first two rounds have taken the mound as a pro but are not currently in Low A or higher.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Not for being called up in September. They lose an option if they put him on the 40 man this year and then send him to the minors next year. He doesn't need to go on the 40 man until after next season, so the only way he gets put on the 40 man prior to that is if the Twins have no intention of sending him back down at all during 2014 or what's left of that season.
    I don't quite get the discussion of Sano and options... do we really think that we will be wringing our hands in April 2017 because Sano is out of options and he will have to make the team or be lost to waivers? That sounds very unlikely, but that is what it would take if his options were used in 2014, 2015 and 2016!

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRex View Post
    I don't quite get the discussion of Sano and options... do we really think that we will be wringing our hands in April 2017 because Sano is out of options and he will have to make the team or be lost to waivers? That sounds very unlikely, but that is what it would take if his options were used in 2014, 2015 and 2016!
    Agree. If Sano's options become an issue, something went horribly wrong. Service time? Well sure, that's going to be a concern, but if he turns into the next Brandon Wood, the options will be the least of the problem.

  16. #36
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    Frankly, most (someone else can figure it out) big leaguers were drafted in the first three rounds of the draft, top 100 pick types. So, there's probably some certainty in a list like that. International is always kind of a question mark.
    This certainly holds true and I don't mind Stewart's placement or Buxton's last year for true, top-end picks. However, that doesn't jive with why a guy like AB Walker or even a few of the other guys knocking get less love than a 3rd round pick this year. Some of that "new girl" effect seems to hold true, at least in my eyes.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Agree. If Sano's options become an issue, something went horribly wrong. Service time? Well sure, that's going to be a concern, but if he turns into the next Brandon Wood, the options will be the least of the problem.
    The only concern is the 40 man roster crunch in the offseason as prospects/free agents are potentially added, but that is minor at best.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRex View Post
    I don't quite get the discussion of Sano and options... do we really think that we will be wringing our hands in April 2017 because Sano is out of options and he will have to make the team or be lost to waivers? That sounds very unlikely, but that is what it would take if his options were used in 2014, 2015 and 2016!
    That doesn't excuse poor business decisions. He could have a season ending injury in AAA 2014 and spend 2015 rehabbing it and struggle in his first taste of the bigs in 2016 in the middle of a pennant race, kind of like some guy named Jason Kubel did. Things happen, and while the odds are low, that doesn't excuse poor management.

    My point is that there is absolutely zero reason to put him on the 40 man this year. He isn't destroying AA and he's not likely going to open next season in MN. As such, he'll get added next year when there's a spot for him that will remain for the duration of the season, but not until then.

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    That doesn't excuse poor business decisions. He could have a season ending injury in AAA 2014 and spend 2015 rehabbing it and struggle in his first taste of the bigs in 2016 in the middle of a pennant race, kind of like some guy named Jason Kubel did. Things happen, and while the odds are low, that doesn't excuse poor management.

    My point is that there is absolutely zero reason to put him on the 40 man this year. He isn't destroying AA and he's not likely going to open next season in MN. As such, he'll get added next year when there's a spot for him that will remain for the duration of the season, but not until then.
    2014 would still be an option year either way. The only way it matters is if, as you mention, he gets hurt and misses significant time or if the Twins don't plan on him making the majors until September 2014. IMO both are unlikely and a September call up this year, assuming he picks up the pace at AA, is within the realm of possibility and certainly wouldn't be irresponsible.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    2014 would still be an option year either way. The only way it matters is if, as you mention, he gets hurt and misses significant time or if the Twins don't plan on him making the majors until September 2014. IMO both are unlikely and a September call up this year, assuming he picks up the pace at AA, is within the realm of possibility and certainly wouldn't be irresponsible.
    2014 is only an option year if he gets put on the 40 man this year, and he returns to the minors next year. An option is not burned if he's put on it next year and never goes back to the minors.

    But that said, he doesn't need to go on the 40 man this year, and he's only in AA. He will get put on the 40 man next year sometime, whether that be in September (for Sept call ups) or June because he forced the issue with his play in Rochester. That said, when he's added, he will stay with the club for the remainder of the season or they risk losing an option. Players only get 3 options, wasting one when you don't need to simply to give a guy a look isn't a smart business move.

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