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Thread: Draft prospects

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    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Draft prospects

    Keith Law recently updated his Top 50 prospects. He still has Buxton at #1 with Zunino, Appel, Zimmer and Correa rounding out the Top 5.

    After scrolling through and reading a little about each guy, I found his last couple sentences to be the most interesting to a Twins fan:
    "If I had to guess right now, I'd say the draft's first four picks go Buxton, Zimmer, Zunino, Appel, but if the Astros decide to pass on Buxton, the Twins could take him and push one of those college arms down to Kansas City at No. 5."

    I don't put a ton of stock into Keith Law most of the time, but he seems to think the Twins have Zimmer and Buxton as 1 and 1A on their board right now.

  2. #2
    Senior Member All-Star James's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jnygaard View Post
    Keith Law recently updated his Top 50 prospects. He still has Buxton at #1 with Zunino, Appel, Zimmer and Correa rounding out the Top 5.

    After scrolling through and reading a little about each guy, I found his last couple sentences to be the most interesting to a Twins fan:
    "If I had to guess right now, I'd say the draft's first four picks go Buxton, Zimmer, Zunino, Appel, but if the Astros decide to pass on Buxton, the Twins could take him and push one of those college arms down to Kansas City at No. 5."

    I don't put a ton of stock into Keith Law most of the time, but he seems to think the Twins have Zimmer and Buxton as 1 and 1A on their board right now.
    Can you provide a link? I'd be interested in reading that.
    You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.

  3. #3
    James, the above info i posted is from ESPN Top 50 list just posted yesterday.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer righty8383's Avatar
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    I would not be happy at all if the Twins took Buxton. Thats not meant to be a knock, just that we need pitching way more than another toolsy outfielder. It should be Appel or Zimmer. Even Gausman could be considered.

    Here is the link James, but you have to be an insider...

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story...raft-prospects

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    Senior Member Double-A Cap'n Piranha's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jnygaard View Post
    Keith Law recently updated his Top 50 prospects. He still has Buxton at #1 with Zunino, Appel, Zimmer and Correa rounding out the Top 5.

    After scrolling through and reading a little about each guy, I found his last couple sentences to be the most interesting to a Twins fan:
    "If I had to guess right now, I'd say the draft's first four picks go Buxton, Zimmer, Zunino, Appel, but if the Astros decide to pass on Buxton, the Twins could take him and push one of those college arms down to Kansas City at No. 5."

    I don't put a ton of stock into Keith Law most of the time, but he seems to think the Twins have Zimmer and Buxton as 1 and 1A on their board right now.
    Obviously Giolito's injury forced him out of the top 5, but will he fall enough that we could use on of our compensation picks on him, and hope he recovers?

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    Quote Originally Posted by righty8383 View Post
    I would not be happy at all if the Twins took Buxton. Thats not meant to be a knock, just that we need pitching way more than another toolsy outfielder. It should be Appel or Zimmer. Even Gausman could be considered.

    Here is the link James, but you have to be an insider...

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story...raft-prospects
    Well, there are a lot of reasons to think the Twins will take him. 1) He might be the best player available at #2 2) A few years ago, the Twins decided that they needed to do more scouting in the southeastern US and they put Terry Ryan in charge of that area. The immediate result was drafting Nico Goodrum in the second round but Ryan has probably personally scouted Buxton. 3) Drafting toolsy high schoolers is part of the Twins draft strategy, that Ryan created. They aren't going to avoid drafting a guy like Buxton simply b/c they have too many OFers or b/c it's not an exciting pick.

  7. #7
    Senior Member All-Star James's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by righty8383 View Post
    I would not be happy at all if the Twins took Buxton. Thats not meant to be a knock, just that we need pitching way more than another toolsy outfielder. It should be Appel or Zimmer. Even Gausman could be considered.

    Here is the link James, but you have to be an insider...

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story...raft-prospects
    Agreed. We need the pitching.

    Thanks for the link as well. This is interesting stuff. We'll have to see how these rankings change between now and June.
    You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Buxton will go to the Astros and the Twins should take Appel.

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    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cap'n Piranha View Post
    Obviously Giolito's injury forced him out of the top 5, but will he fall enough that we could use on of our compensation picks on him, and hope he recovers?
    That's going to be the hairy part of the new CBA. With every pick that passes, the chances of Giolito signing goes down. Whoever drafts him would have to come up with a lot of money elsewhere. The Twins - with the biggest bonus pool - would be one team that might be able to get it done. The ripple effect would be a lot of college seniors drafted in rounds 2-10 (who take less than slot) followed up by a lot of high demand, hard-to-sign guys in rounds 11-20, in case Giolito doesn't sign after spending little on the easy-to-sign guys.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shanewahl View Post
    Buxton will go to the Astros and the Twins should take Appel.
    Well, it is the Twins. How about a scenario where the Twins take SS Merrero (probably slotted to go somewhere around 6th or later) and pay him 1m less than the cap for a #2 pick and use (pocket) that extra million somewhere else?

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    I would be pretty disappointed with Merrero. If the Twins pick offense, they need run producers, and Merrero is another defensively safe, top of the order bat.

    I don't think this list means a whole lot right now. We'll need to wait until the weather heats up, then we'll see pitchers fly up the rankings as they get the extra 4-5 MPH on their fastball and the have a couple more months mastering their second and third pitches.

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    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jnygaard View Post
    That's going to be the hairy part of the new CBA. With every pick that passes, the chances of Giolito signing goes down. Whoever drafts him would have to come up with a lot of money elsewhere. The Twins - with the biggest bonus pool - would be one team that might be able to get it done. The ripple effect would be a lot of college seniors drafted in rounds 2-10 (who take less than slot) followed up by a lot of high demand, hard-to-sign guys in rounds 11-20, in case Giolito doesn't sign after spending little on the easy-to-sign guys.
    yeah, this is definitely the downside of the new CBA. The thing about Giolito is that he will be pitching again before the draft... If things look good, I could see them drafting him... In all honestly, they need pitching. I don't care if they go lower ceiling quicker to the show (Appel, Zimmer, Gausman) or a higher ceiling with Giolito, but the bottom line is that they need impact pitching, as they presently have little.

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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    yeah, this is definitely the downside of the new CBA. The thing about Giolito is that he will be pitching again before the draft... If things look good, I could see them drafting him... In all honestly, they need pitching. I don't care if they go lower ceiling quicker to the show (Appel, Zimmer, Gausman) or a higher ceiling with Giolito, but the bottom line is that they need impact pitching, as they presently have little.
    I don't see how Twins can take Giolito. Assume Gio needs 4m (that's what BA.com cited) and Twins have just over 12m to spend. They also have 13 picks in the first 10 rounds. IIRC, the cap on the #2 pick is 6.2m. The Twins can't realistically get to 4m unless they draft someone at #2 that'll take several million less than that and then hope that no one else takes Giolito before pick #32.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by James View Post
    Agreed. We need the pitching.

    Thanks for the link as well. This is interesting stuff. We'll have to see how these rankings change between now and June.
    I disagree vehemently. You always go BPA and figure it out later. It just depends on who is BPA on their list. If Buxton is that guy, you trust your scouts and pull the trigger.

    There are solid to great major league pitchers available every year, and they can be had with the right set of prospects. We just need to be a lot more aggressive in these situations and a lot smarter (no Ramos for Capps garbage) when they present themselves.

    If Benson, Hicks, Arcia and Morales are all good to great and Buxton is shooting up the minors and dominating at every level, you cannot tell me we couldn't move 2 of them for some serious pitching value.

    Heck, we're probably better off if the pitchers are developed outside of the organization given our recent results.

  15. #15
    Senior Member Double-A shs_59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by righty8383 View Post
    I would not be happy at all if the Twins took Buxton. Thats not meant to be a knock, just that we need pitching way more than another toolsy outfielder. It should be Appel or Zimmer. Even Gausman could be considered.

    Here is the link James, but you have to be an insider...

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story...raft-prospects

    Mistake #1
    Common misconception among some fans here I see.

    YOU TAKE THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE

    If Buxton is there at #2 you absolutely take him, he likely could develop into a Jason Heywaard like star, in the meantime if 1 or 2 of Hicks, Benson, Arcia, Morales and Kepler pan out you HAVE the option to deal Buxton for a Matt Garza (or Better) like young arm when the situation presents itself.

    with that said, everyones big board is different, Marcus Stroman RHP from Duke would be my #1 on my Board if he could grow just another 2 inches over night.

    my way too early prediction:

    Astros - Appel
    Twins - Zuzino or Buxton, maybe Zimmer
    Mariners - Zuzino or Buxton
    O's - -- Zimmer or Beck
    Royals - Zimmer or Guasman
    Cubs - Marcus Stroman
    Pirates - Carlos Correa or Devin Marrero
    Last edited by shs_59; 04-11-2012 at 11:42 PM.
    Top Twins prospects ? 1.Byron Buxton (OF-A+)
    2.Miguel Sano (3B-AA) 3.Alex Meyer (SP-AA) 4. Kohl Stewart (SP-RK) 5. Nick Gordon (SS-RK) 6. J.O. Berrios (P-A) 7. Josmil Pinto (C-AAA) 8. Eddie Rosario (2B-AA) 9. L. Thorpe (SP-RK) 10. Travis Harrison (3B-A) 11.Kennys Vargas (1B-A+) 12. Trevor May (SP-AA) 13. Jorge Polanco (2B-A) 14. Max Kepler (OF-A) 15. Miguel Sulbaran (SP-A) Just Missed:P Zach Jones, SS Aderlin Mejia, P Stephen Gonsalves, C Stuart Turner.

  16. #16
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    If you compare him to Justin Upton sure, but Jason Heyward isn't exactly a future Hall-of-Famer.

    The problem with Buxton is that he is playing in a rural Georgia school district. It would be like if someone said the best player in the country was playing in Hibbing. He's likely not facing many pitchers who can even touch 85 MPH on the radar gun, and it's doubtfull that any pitcher's breaking pitches actually break.

  17. #17
    I would not take a pitcher necessarily at the No. 2 overall pick unless he is a can't miss. There are, however, no can't miss pitchers in this draft. Appell and Zimmer are good pitchers, but not my choice. I like Zunino because Mauer will not catch forever. I would not take Buxton either because we have enough outfielders in our system. It is difficult to take a pitcher with your first pick. Gibson and Wimmers are good examples of that.

  18. #18
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    The baseball minds at BA think that Buxton is the consensus #1 talent. They also seem to think the Astros aren't willing to take the risk of drafting a HS at #1.

    I'm all for taking the BPA, but if the Twins have a pitcher rated close to equal to Buxton, I'd error on the side of adding a pitcher to the stable. If they don't... well, would it be terrible to add the top-rated player on a lot of draft boards?

  19. #19
    Senior Member Triple-A jtrinaldi's Avatar
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    The Astro's would be dumb not to take Buxton, who I think is the 1 premier talent in this years draft compared to last years with Bundy, Bradley,Bauer,hultzen,starling,cole.
    The Twins are getting Shafted for having such a bad record, compared to who they would have been able to take at 2 in last years draft class.
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  20. #20
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Buxton is the no. 1 pick, easily, And the Astros will take him. The Twins should take Appel. He goes to FTM immediately.

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