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Thread: Gleeman: Buxton/Sano vs. past top prospect duos

  1. #21
    Senior Member All-Star 70charger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hawkeye forever View Post
    Who is Cabela?
    Cornelius Cabela. We don't know much about him since he signed out of Indy Ball, but he has been working out with Sidd Finch in Tibet, so I have high hopes.

  2. #22
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    As far as absolute floors go, I think Sano's is probably somewhere between a Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn. The strikeouts are concerning. Reynolds was a 20-30% strikeout guy in the minors but like Sano (and unlike Delmon) knows how to take a walk. I think we would have to be a bit disappointed if Sano turned out like Reynolds or even Dunn, but his power is comparable, and if he can hit even a little better you're already looking at a pretty valuable hitter.

    For Buxton I think a BJ Upton floor may be a bit ungenerous (which if you ignore this year still looks pretty good). Upton was a super athletic prospect, but Buxton is a step above, he's got Willie Mays like athleticism. I think his floor is maybe Upton's bat with better defense and probably a few more infield hits. If his bat is better then look out.

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    Man a lot of you guys are disappointing me, let me tell you why its insane to compare duos like BJ Upton/Young and Hosmer/Moustakas to Buxton/Sano .

    What have Buxton/Sano done throughout their lives that Upton/Young and Hosmer/Moustakas didn't? Buxton/Sano have dominated every league they have played in, they have been dominant in baseball at every age in every league. They put up big numbers everywhere they go, something the other 2 pairs didn't do. All 4 of the players from those 2 pairs weren't nearly as dominant in the minors(Especialy in the first couple years) as Buxton/Sano. Most top 10 prospects that become busts are those type of guys that kinda come out of nowhere later in the minors(Not really out of nowhere but kinda). The Guys like Mauer and Trout who dominate right away in the minors are the ones who become stars. Buxton and Sano are both gonna be great, especialy Buxton. Seriously you have to look at a players track record from there first year in the minors.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Bull View Post
    Man a lot of you guys are disappointing me, let me tell you why its insane to compare duos like BJ Upton/Young and Hosmer/Moustakas to Buxton/Sano .

    What have Buxton/Sano done throughout their lives that Upton/Young and Hosmer/Moustakas didn't? Buxton/Sano have dominated every league they have played in, they have been dominant in baseball at every age in every league. They put up big numbers everywhere they go, something the other 2 pairs didn't do. All 4 of the players from those 2 pairs weren't nearly as dominant in the minors(Especialy in the first couple years) as Buxton/Sano. Most top 10 prospects that become busts are those type of guys that kinda come out of nowhere later in the minors(Not really out of nowhere but kinda). The Guys like Mauer and Trout who dominate right away in the minors are the ones who become stars. Buxton and Sano are both gonna be great, especialy Buxton. Seriously you have to look at a players track record from there first year in the minors.
    I'll add to this thought.

    A couple other bust profiles:
    -those that have high draft pick or big signing bonus pedigrees but don't dominate and stay in rankings because of said pedigree or non-hit tools.
    -those that "hold their own" while they are young for a level

    Like Red Bull said - those that don't bust are those that dominate at every level. The only slight pause I have is Sano's K rate. I fully expect him to improve on that over the next couple of months, but the fact is is that he will always be a K guy.
    Papers...business papers.

  5. #25
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Thoughts?

    in random order:

    - I think that Sano should be rated higher than Buxton. Period. FSL is the league that you have to prove yourself and I am still waiting for Buxton to do it, while Sano killed it.
    - I saw DJ Baxendale (Sano's teammate now) make a total fool of Buxton last spring in 3 pitches (and everyone else as well; this is more of a Baxendale comment, who is back btw and healthy).
    - SSS. This is for the above, as well as Sano's work in Hardware City this season.
    - I really do not buy what BA has to say about rankings. I suspect that Harmon Killebrew (arguably the best position player to wear a Twins/Senators uniform) would not have made that list because he was lacking a couple of tools (D and Speed). Also, the best pitcher to wear a Twins/Senators uniform (Walter Johnson) would probably not have made their list because he had only one pitch (fastball) so he would be doomed to a middle reliever ceiling...

    In other words, I really take these with a huge grain of salt, unless they are accompanied with actual performance data. Both Sano and Buxton have been performing great this season. It will be great to see them challenged further, follow their development and hope they make it...
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  6. #26
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2wins87 View Post
    As far as absolute floors go, I think Sano's is probably somewhere between a Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn. .
    2 words why I really dislike the "floor" comparables when talking about prospects:

    Bo Jackson

    Sano's floor (and everyone's) is Bo Jackson. But Bo Jackson not making it to the majors before the injury....

    I'd rather talk about comparables and potential... And if someone had to twist my arm for names, I'd say Harmon Killebrew for Sano and Rickey Henderson for Buxton. But that is ceiling and potential and they have to be around for 20 more years to reach it...
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  7. #27
    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    Red Bull, have you seen B.J. Upton's numbers from his first two years in the minors? He skipped rookie ball altogether, and put up a .930 OPS in Triple-A at age 19. If he was a lesser prospect than Buxton, it wasn't by much. Only reason he wasn't ranked No. 1 is some dude named Mauer.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    In his last 9 games, he is hitting .111/.200/.185 (.385) with two doubles, 3 walks and 12 strikeouts.

    My concern rate is like 0.5%, but it is one of the worst slumps of his career. My concern is low because of his age and because he has shown in the past that he can make adjustments. My assumption is that within a short time, he'll go on a strong run again and be just fine.
    My concern rate is -50%. Are we really debating the fates and fortunes of a very young man's career- on what essentially amounts to statistical noise concerning Sano's first 26 games- all the while being the youngest player in AA?

  9. #29
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    My concern rate is -50%. Are we really debating the fates and fortunes of a very young man's career- on what essentially amounts to statistical noise concerning Sano's first 26 games- all the while being the youngest player in AA?
    I'd be careful in calling this statistical noise. Statistical noise involves what is essentially a small sample size coupled with the randomness of what is being measured. Players routinely struggle when being promoted to AA, which tends to mean they have to adjust. That's not random, and while sample sizes can come into play, Sano has routinely shown through his career that strike outs are an issue. He was clearly able to adjust from Beloit to Fort Meyers, but his promotion to New Brittian has shown that he still has some issues to work on.

    I'm not terribly worried about it just yet. He's 20 (the youngest in his league, in AA, and still keeping an OPS around .800, which to me at least is the measure of a good hitter. That said, major league pitchers are much better than AA pitchers at exposing the holes in his swing. He either needs to fix the gaps in his swing or learn to lay off the pitches out of the zone (or both). Given his progression in the area this season, I suspect that those numbers will improve at some point.

    That said, this is a does of reality to people who think he's going to be in Minnesota sometime before next September.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I'd be careful in calling this statistical noise. Statistical noise involves what is essentially a small sample size coupled with the randomness of what is being measured. Players routinely struggle when being promoted to AA, which tends to mean they have to adjust. That's not random, and while sample sizes can come into play, Sano has routinely shown through his career that strike outs are an issue. He was clearly able to adjust from Beloit to Fort Meyers, but his promotion to New Brittian has shown that he still has some issues to work on.

    I'm not terribly worried about it just yet. He's 20 (the youngest in his league, in AA, and still keeping an OPS around .800, which to me at least is the measure of a good hitter. That said, major league pitchers are much better than AA pitchers at exposing the holes in his swing. He either needs to fix the gaps in his swing or learn to lay off the pitches out of the zone (or both). Given his progression in the area this season, I suspect that those numbers will improve at some point.

    That said, this is a does of reality to
    people who think he's going to be in Minnesota sometime before next September.
    I was following you until the conclusion. Struggling for a couple of weeks doesn't mean it will take over a year to put it together. He could just as easily start clicking following the all star break and futures game.

  11. #31
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Bull View Post
    Man a lot of you guys are disappointing me, let me tell you why its insane to compare duos like BJ Upton/Young and Hosmer/Moustakas to Buxton/Sano .

    What have Buxton/Sano done throughout their lives that Upton/Young and Hosmer/Moustakas didn't? Buxton/Sano have dominated every league they have played in, they have been dominant in baseball at every age in every league. They put up big numbers everywhere they go, something the other 2 pairs didn't do. All 4 of the players from those 2 pairs weren't nearly as dominant in the minors(Especialy in the first couple years) as Buxton/Sano. Most top 10 prospects that become busts are those type of guys that kinda come out of nowhere later in the minors(Not really out of nowhere but kinda). The Guys like Mauer and Trout who dominate right away in the minors are the ones who become stars. Buxton and Sano are both gonna be great, especialy Buxton. Seriously you have to look at a players track record from there first year in the minors.
    This is just way too much generalization. If your point is true some evidence/direct analysis would help. I pull up those four and see BJ Upton killing AAA pitching at 19 and Delmon skipping the minors almost altogether. So it's for me to take your position on fairly without deeper analysis.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Bull View Post
    Man a lot of you guys are disappointing me, let me tell you why its insane to compare duos like BJ Upton/Young and Hosmer/Moustakas to Buxton/Sano .

    What have Buxton/Sano done throughout their lives that Upton/Young and Hosmer/Moustakas didn't? Buxton/Sano have dominated every league they have played in, they have been dominant in baseball at every age in every league. They put up big numbers everywhere they go, something the other 2 pairs didn't do. All 4 of the players from those 2 pairs weren't nearly as dominant in the minors(Especialy in the first couple years) as Buxton/Sano. Most top 10 prospects that become busts are those type of guys that kinda come out of nowhere later in the minors(Not really out of nowhere but kinda). The Guys like Mauer and Trout who dominate right away in the minors are the ones who become stars. Buxton and Sano are both gonna be great, especialy Buxton. Seriously you have to look at a players track record from there first year in the minors.
    Did you actually look at their minor league numbers? Like Nick said Upton did dominate at every level of the minors. Delmon dominated A ball as an 18 year old (albeit with his characteristically bad plate discipline), skipped to AA as a 19 year old and continued to put up the same numbers there. The point is that the step up to the major leagues is bigger than any other that a prospect will make. Even top prospects who perform at every level of the minors don't always do it so well. Having a floor of a productive major league starter isn't such a bad thing. For the record I think they are both going to be significantly better.

    If you want to talk about ceilings, how about Willie Mays for Buxton and maybe Reggie Jackson with a more walks for Sano.

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by Red Bull View Post
    Man a lot of you guys are disappointing me, let me tell you why its insane to compare duos like BJ Upton/Young and Hosmer/Moustakas to Buxton/Sano .

    What have Buxton/Sano done throughout their lives that Upton/Young and Hosmer/Moustakas didn't? Buxton/Sano have dominated every league they have played in, they have been dominant in baseball at every age in every league. They put up big numbers everywhere they go, something the other 2 pairs didn't do. All 4 of the players from those 2 pairs weren't nearly as dominant in the minors(Especialy in the first couple years) as Buxton/Sano. Most top 10 prospects that become busts are those type of guys that kinda come out of nowhere later in the minors(Not really out of nowhere but kinda). The Guys like Mauer and Trout who dominate right away in the minors are the ones who become stars. Buxton and Sano are both gonna be great, especialy Buxton. Seriously you have to look at a players track record from there first year in the minors.
    That all makes sense if you ignore the fact that Upton and Young crushed as 18 to 20 year olds.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    I really do not buy what BA has to say about rankings. I suspect that Harmon Killebrew (arguably the best position player to wear a Twins/Senators uniform) would not have made that list because he was lacking a couple of tools (D and Speed). Also, the best pitcher to wear a Twins/Senators uniform (Walter Johnson) would probably not have made their list because he had only one pitch (fastball) so he would be doomed to a middle reliever ceiling...


    I'm not saying BA is the authority on rating prospects, but you dislike them because of how you suspect they would have rated guys that played over half a decade ago? How is that logical?

    Also, I can think of one guy who's dominated the majors with basically one pitch in recent years and that's Mariano Rivera, I think it's reasonable to be skeptical of most guys with only one pitch in this era.

    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    2 words why I really dislike the "floor" comparables when talking about prospects:

    Bo Jackson

    Sano's floor (and everyone's) is Bo Jackson. But Bo Jackson not making it to the majors before the injury....
    Are you saying Sano or Buxton might get injured playing football? Seems unlikely to me

  15. #35
    Comparing them to prior prospect duos is fun but a little silly. Wouldn't it make more sense to compare Buxton to other #1 prospects and Sano to other #3 prospects? That wouldn't tell us much either but at least you're comparing them to a larger pool of prospects.

    It's less sobering to compare Buxton to Bryce Harper, Jason Heyward, Matt Wieters, Jay Bruce, Delmon Young, Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira, Josh Hamilton, JD Drew, Ben Greive, Andruw Jones, A-Rod, Cliff Floyd, Chipper Jones.

    Or Sano to Mike Trout, Jesus Montero, Giancarlo Stanton, Colby Rasmus, Delmon Young, Brandon Wood, Jose Reyes, Hank Blalock, Corey Patterson, Eric Chavez, Adrian Beltre, Ruben Rivera, Chipper Jones, Jeffrey Hammonds, Cliff Floyd, Ryan Klesko.

    Top 3 prospects work out pretty often. There are some clunkers in there but we all know there are no guarantees. Cross your fingers and hope we get Andruw Jones and Giancarlo Stanton instead of Ben Grieve and Ruben Rivera.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by CharacterGroove View Post
    That all makes sense if you ignore the fact that Upton and Young crushed as 18 to 20 year olds.
    What are you/you guys talking about? BJ did not "Crush" when he entered the minors. Yea he was pretty good(.882 OPS) but his number in 139 games weren't amazing, and he got worse in 106(.769 OPS) games the next year even though he was on the same team. So please tell me how that is crushing? And its not like AAA is the best minor league level lol, look at collabello. And Young in Tripple A had less than an .800 OPS in over 130 games... So what are you talking about?

  17. #37
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    My concern about Sano remains unchanged. He dominated the FSL but the K's were still there. He could be awesome or he could merely be a useful MLB'er. The important part is that he could be awesome. Same goes for Buxton but his floor is a little higher because of defense and the lack of a major red flag.

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by 2wins87 View Post
    As far as absolute floors go, I think Sano's is probably somewhere between a Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn. The strikeouts are concerning. Reynolds was a 20-30% strikeout guy in the minors but like Sano (and unlike Delmon) knows how to take a walk. I think we would have to be a bit disappointed if Sano turned out like Reynolds or even Dunn, but his power is comparable, and if he can hit even a little better you're already looking at a pretty valuable hitter.

    For Buxton I think a BJ Upton floor may be a bit ungenerous (which if you ignore this year still looks pretty good). Upton was a super athletic prospect, but Buxton is a step above, he's got Willie Mays like athleticism. I think his floor is maybe Upton's bat with better defense and probably a few more infield hits. If his bat is better then look out.

    Adam Dunn has hit 430 HR in the majors. If Sano hits 300 HR, I think everyone would be ecstatic considering that only Harmon has hit more than 293. I would take Adam Dunn. Batting average is only one stat. The dude can hit bombs and that is what he will be in the lineup to do.

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by UCLA_YANKEE_COLA View Post
    Comparing them to prior prospect duos is fun but a little silly. Wouldn't it make more sense to compare Buxton to other #1 prospects and Sano to other #3 prospects? That wouldn't tell us much either but at least you're comparing them to a larger pool of prospects.
    But 1 and 3 aren't quite their "true" rankings for comparison either. Those are midseason rankings, after higher ranked prospects have been promoted but before the draft and international signings have been added, right?

    Maybe it's just me, but I will trust these rankings and comparisons a lot more if they can finish strong in 2013 and maintain these rankings going into 2014.

  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    But 1 and 3 aren't quite their "true" rankings for comparison either. Those are midseason rankings, after higher ranked prospects have been promoted but before the draft and international signings have been added, right?

    Maybe it's just me, but I will trust these rankings and comparisons a lot more if they can finish strong in 2013 and maintain these rankings going into 2014.
    Right, the rankings don't really mean much. I won't trust them until they're both several hundred AB's into the big leagues. But using the same exercise as Gleeman (comparing prospects at their current ranking) is slightly more useful if you look at them as individuals instead of as a duo.

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