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Thread: Article: Decrease in velocity should be a concern for Pavano

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    Owner All-Star Parker Hageman's Avatar
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    Article: Decrease in velocity should be a concern for Pavano


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    Senior Member Triple-A Steve Lein's Avatar
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    This was one thing I noticed immediately watching the game and from Pitch f/x on the gamecast. Pitch f/x was calling all of his fastballs "changeups". It'd throw in "sinker" every once in awhile, but he obviously wasn't throwing that many changeups.

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    Owner All-Star Parker Hageman's Avatar
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    Right, GameDay's classifications always seem off for Pavano because of (1) his low velocity and (2) the movement on his fastball. Baseball Info Solutions had a more accurate read of his pitch types saying he threw 75% fastballs (two, four and sink) and 16.8% changeups.

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    Watching the game, I didn't pay much/any attention to the radar readings, but through at least the first three innings I did find myself thinking how much extra movement Pavano's fastball seemed to have. That's based on perception, though, and not any actual data. And it's early in the year and there's other factors that could have my perception fooling me. I don't have the knowledge to know if the extra movement could be caused by the lower velocity, or the other way around, or neither, though. Anyone have enough experience and expertise to have a valid thought on that?

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Mr. Ed's Avatar
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    Move him asap. Find a taker. I'll take Swarzak in his spot the rest of the year, no problem.

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    Senior Member Triple-A Steve Lein's Avatar
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    Ya, the velocity readings were still the first thing that made me go "what's up with Pavs?" before I even noticed the pitch f/x data. low-to-Mid 80's heat was not what I was expecting. Used to him being High 80's touching low 90's.

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    1-2 mph slower at the start of the season is OK, but 4-5 mph less is scary. He was healthy during spring training and had plenty of time to get the arm back in shape. Let's hope is was just a fluke and next start he is at 88-90 again or it could be a long year for Pavano.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jimbo92107's Avatar
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    And yet, with a fastball clocked at 85mph, Carl Pavano managed to pitch pretty well, and the hits were on mistakes. Velocity can be a big weapon, but knowing how to pitch is even more important.

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    And yet, with a fastball clocked at 85mph, Carl Pavano managed to pitch pretty well, and the hits were on mistakes.
    That's true. As I noted, he's got other resources like his changeup and slider and throws the fastball with very good precision that moves a lot. He rarely walks people and gets a high amount of grounders. He's overall decent. The concern is, going forward, he may not have the same margin for error when he misses his spots now that the velocity has diminished and his fastball and change are starting to converge.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CDog View Post
    ...I don't have the knowledge to know if the extra movement could be caused by the lower velocity, or the other way around, or neither, though. Anyone have enough experience and expertise to have a valid thought on that?
    Here's my 2 cents. Greater or lesser movement (besides a knuckleball that relates to different phenomena) is caused by a corresponding increase or decrease in RPMs. We used to call gettin' good RPMs a "good finish".

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    Senior Member Triple-A whydidnt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimbo92107 View Post
    And yet, with a fastball clocked at 85mph, Carl Pavano managed to pitch pretty well, and the hits were on mistakes. Velocity can be a big weapon, but knowing how to pitch is even more important.
    I guess I disagree, I don't call giving up 4 runs in 7 IPs "pretty well". It's more my definition of pretty mediocre. He gave up about as many runs as he deserved based upon his performance, and his ERA sits over 5. If the entire staff pitched that well all year, none of us would be happy with the results.

    I'm certainly concerned, the Twins need the Pavano of 2009-2010 if they are going to be at all competitive this year.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jimbo92107's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by whydidnt View Post
    I guess I disagree, I don't call giving up 4 runs in 7 IPs "pretty well". It's more my definition of pretty mediocre. He gave up about as many runs as he deserved based upon his performance, and his ERA sits over 5. If the entire staff pitched that well all year, none of us would be happy with the results.

    I'm certainly concerned, the Twins need the Pavano of 2009-2010 if they are going to be at all competitive this year.
    I was in San Diego during Gregg Maddux's last year. He could still get people out when his heater clocked 88mph, but when he couldn't get it above 86, they started clubbing him pretty bad. I suppose by his age he started losing some precision, too. He'd start to tire by the 5th inning, and then his stuff would start drifting over the middle...Boom.

    Pavano's a little like that. The velocity's not as important as with other pitchers because he can spot the ball so well. When he can't spot the ball anymore, then he's done. So far, he's hanging on with control. If that starts to go, then giving up a mere four runs per outing will be the good old days.

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