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Thread: Article: Mixed Developments For Future of Twins Rotation

  1. #21
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by orangevening View Post
    Most if not all major league hitters can hit a 97 mph fastball down the middle. What is more important IMO is command, movement and speed difference. A 85 mph fastball looks like a 90 mph fastball when you can throw a 70 mph change up. A 90 mph fastball with late movement on the outside corner on the knees is harder to hit than a 100 mph down the middle. Velocity is nice and can cover up mistakes, but not the most important.
    Please re-read my post instead of arguing against a point you think I'm trying to make. I never said it was the most important. I just pointed out that it is a major factor.

  2. #22
    Senior Member Double-A chuchadoro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thegrin View Post
    I wish everyone would stop focusing on the speed of pitches. Location and baseball smarts are more important than mph. Gibson looks like he has a good off-speed out pitch. Let us hope he develops to become a Cy Young candidate, using smars & skills, instead of speed.
    Is this because I mentioned in passing that Gibby throws harder than Webb? Did you see the first part of the statement that was very complimentary of Webb's sinker?

    I don't remember writing "Gibson throws harder, therefore he'll be better than Webb." Apparently, you misinterpreted what I wrote or are aggravated by "everyone's" emphasis on power pitchers.

  3. #23
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    Watching Gibson he reminds me of a young Kris Benson. Now we all hope he has a better, healthier, more successful career than Benson, but that's who he reminds me of.

  4. #24
    Senior Member Double-A chuchadoro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fairweather View Post
    Watching Gibson he reminds me of a young Kris Benson. Now we all hope he has a better, healthier, more successful career than Benson, but that's who he reminds me of.
    Thanks. We also hope he's less of a d bag and is able to steer clear of mentally unstable strippers.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    Velocity allows for a little more margin for error in location, but coupled with good command and two good secondary pitches, that makes an ace. But velocity alone is not enough.
    No doubt about that but with a lot of good coaching and luck, a pitcher can improve comand and learn secondary pitches. Velocity is generally a natural attribute though, which is why a lot of baseball people seem to focus on that first and hope the other two traits later come together.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Now, more than ever, why didn't the Twins get John Lannan thrown into the deal, when the Nats were going to avoid arbitration and cut him anyway? At least they would have had a still-young (only 28) and proven innings-eater to show for the "blockbuster" trade.
    Securing the right to pay Lannan twice as much through arby as he got as a free agent doesn't exactly seem like added value.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
    It's not like they traded our best outfielder and leadoff guy guy for Meyer.
    Shoulders are dicey but probably a little premature to call Meyer dead.

  8. #28
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    Maybe the Twins should sign a free agent pitcher this off-season to take Meyer's place in the 2014 rotation?

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Terry Ryan, what are you doing on this site?
    That always cracks me up...

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by drjim View Post
    Securing the right to pay Lannan twice as much through arby as he got as a free agent doesn't exactly seem like added value.
    Compared to what the Twins have now? The worst SP staff in all of baseball?

    Assuming Lannan doesn't hurt his leg in April, Lannan would have been a huge value, if he had just performed at his career numbers (and he had started the season strong before the injury). Either as a proven, but still young, back-end innings-eater for a Correia-type cost.... or as a future potential trading chip or throw-in, the Twins had more than enough payroll space to take on his cost----and it's been more than demonstrated in real-time-spades that the Twins rotation options were... and for the most part still are.... simply awful.

    Sorry, Lannan would have been very good value at whatever cost arbitration would have decided upon.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by drjim View Post
    Shoulders are dicey but probably a little premature to call Meyer dead.
    I don't see anyone on this thread who has posted anything close to "calling Meyer dead"- prematurely or otherwise. Legitimate concerns started with the OP and have followed through, from the Twins FO on all the way down to the other respondents in this thread.

    To assert anything like what you have inferred was said is, IMO, disingenuous.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I don't see anyone on this thread who has posted anything close to "calling Meyer dead"- prematurely or otherwise. Legitimate concerns started with the OP and have followed through, from the Twins FO on all the way down to the other respondents in this thread.

    To assert anything like what you have inferred was said is, IMO, disingenuous.
    It was a response to someone complaining about giving up Span. I think there is a lot of time to go before the full verdict of that trade can be made.
    Papers...business papers.

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Compared to what the Twins have now? The worst SP staff in all of baseball?

    Assuming Lannan doesn't hurt his leg in April, Lannan would have been a huge value, if he had just performed at his career numbers (and he had started the season strong before the injury). Either as a proven, but still young, back-end innings-eater for a Correia-type cost.... or as a future potential trading chip or throw-in, the Twins had more than enough payroll space to take on his cost----and it's been more than demonstrated in real-time-spades that the Twins rotation options were... and for the most part still are.... simply awful.

    Sorry, Lannan would have been very good value at whatever cost arbitration would have decided upon.
    I'm not overly impressed with a guy who spent most of his age 27 season at AAA, but if the Twins would have wanted him they could have signed him for less than the arby figure as a free agent. There was no reason to include him in the trade.
    Papers...business papers.

  14. #34
    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    With regards to the "importance of velocity" discussion... below, I've ranked every Twins pitcher by ERA, with their average fastball velocity accompanying (min. 25 innings, although I had to throw in Gibson because he fits so perfectly):

    Pitcher - ERA - FB velo (MPH)

    Glen Perkins - 2.05 - 94.6
    Ryan Pressly - 2.63 - 92.9
    Kyle Gibson - 3.00 - 92.2
    Anthony Swarzak - 3.08 - 91.3
    Sam Deduno - 3.32 - 90.2
    Josh Roenicke - 3.38 - 91.1
    Jared Burton 3.57 - 91.6
    Casey Fien - 3.58 - 90.1
    Brian Duensing - 3.81 - 92.0
    Kevin Correia - 4.08 - 90.2
    Scott Diamond - 5.40 - 88.2
    Pedro Hernandez - 5.54 - 88.4
    P.J. Walters - 6.03 - 89.7
    Mike Pelfrey - 6.11 - 91.9
    Vance Worley - 7.21 - 89.5

    Now, let me be very clear that this is a vast oversimplification, and Pelfrey is an obvious exception, but you can't help being struck looking at that pattern. The difference between 89 and 91 is a mere fraction of a millisecond, but in baseball, those count. It means added margin for error. When you don't have great stuff or consistently precise command (as is the case with most of these current Twins' starters) you need that margin for error.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    If it's a sticky shoulder surgery situation for Meyer, by the time they properly diagnose and schedule it, he probably would have little chance to be ready to pitch next spring.

    But it could be even worse than that. Recent studies have been done that show that while around 85% of elbow surgeries end up in pitchers equaling or exceeding previous performance levels......for shoulders, it's less than 50%. This is very, very disconcerting news and the Twins extreme caution is well-justified. If things don't take a turn back to the positive, it's now getting too uncomfortably near the area wherein it's less than a coin flip that Meyer still projects to being the potential Ace pitcher we once all hoped for.

    Now, more than ever, why didn't the Twins get John Lannan thrown into the deal, when the Nats were going to avoid arbitration and cut him anyway? At least they would have had a still-young (only 28) and proven innings-eater to show for the "blockbuster" trade.
    The reportsMRI was negative. Do you have some inside information or just having pessimism?
    Proven innings eater was out two months. I guess that is the qualification you are calling innings eater. Below average era for the NL to boot.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
    With regards to the "importance of velocity" discussion... below, I've ranked every Twins pitcher by ERA, with their average fastball velocity accompanying (min. 25 innings, although I had to throw in Gibson because he fits so perfectly):

    Pitcher - ERA - FB velo (MPH)

    Glen Perkins - 2.05 - 94.6
    Ryan Pressly - 2.63 - 92.9
    Kyle Gibson - 3.00 - 92.2
    Anthony Swarzak - 3.08 - 91.3
    Sam Deduno - 3.32 - 90.2
    Josh Roenicke - 3.38 - 91.1
    Jared Burton 3.57 - 91.6
    Casey Fien - 3.58 - 90.1
    Brian Duensing - 3.81 - 92.0
    Kevin Correia - 4.08 - 90.2
    Scott Diamond - 5.40 - 88.2
    Pedro Hernandez - 5.54 - 88.4
    P.J. Walters - 6.03 - 89.7
    Mike Pelfrey - 6.11 - 91.9
    Vance Worley - 7.21 - 89.5

    Now, let me be very clear that this is a vast oversimplification, and Pelfrey is an obvious exception, but you can't help being struck looking at that pattern. The difference between 89 and 91 is a mere fraction of a millisecond, but in baseball, those count. It means added margin for error. When you don't have great stuff or consistently precise command (as is the case with most of these current Twins' starters) you need that margin for error.
    I would suggest that velocity for a starter and a reliever are quite different, as it is well documented that starters moving to a bullpen role frequently add 2-3 mph to their fastball.

    If you agree, another look at the starters on your chart indicates NO significant correlation.

    Sam Deduno - 3.32 - 90.2
    Kevin Correia - 4.08 - 90.2
    Scott Diamond - 5.40 - 88.2
    Pedro Hernandez - 5.54 - 88.4
    P.J. Walters - 6.03 - 89.7
    Mike Pelfrey - 6.11 - 91.9
    Vance Worley - 7.21 - 89.5

    That being said, I certainly think it is better to be Gibson and throw 92-93 with movement than to be Correia and throw 90-91 with movement.

  17. #37
    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRex View Post
    I would suggest that velocity for a starter and a reliever are quite different, as it is well documented that starters moving to a bullpen role frequently add 2-3 mph to their fastball.
    And get better results.

    That's why starting pitchers who can work in the mid-90s for an entire game are such valued assets.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    The reportsMRI was negative. Do you have some inside information or just having pessimism?
    Proven innings eater was out two months. I guess that is the qualification you are calling innings eater. Below average era for the NL to boot.
    You are factually wrong on Lannan.

    Injuries to his leg, first significant time off in his career. Please check back on his career stats for his proven qualifications.

    Lannan's career ERA through 2012 is 4.01. The NL average ERA for SPs over Lannan's career time-frame (2007-12) is 4.23. His IP over that time ranks 27 overall, and counting his minor league innings over the last 5 years, he's averaged 188 IP/YR. with 32 games started per year.

    Regarding Meyer, why aren't you asking this of the OP and the Twins FO, as well? The MRI was negative, but the Twins are publicly expressing concern about the lack of improvement in his condition since the shutdown, and now the special trip to Minneapolis. That is certainly not the type of news developments that lead to positive thoughts.

    My comment was in regards to Meyer possibly facing surgery at some point if this is leading to something that hasn't yet shown on the MRI- It has been shown that shoulder injuries requiring surgery generally don't lead to more good outcomes over bad ones.

  19. #39
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRex View Post
    I would suggest that velocity for a starter and a reliever are quite different, as it is well documented that starters moving to a bullpen role frequently add 2-3 mph to their fastball.

    If you agree, another look at the starters on your chart indicates NO significant correlation.

    Sam Deduno - 3.32 - 90.2
    Kevin Correia - 4.08 - 90.2
    Scott Diamond - 5.40 - 88.2
    Pedro Hernandez - 5.54 - 88.4
    P.J. Walters - 6.03 - 89.7
    Mike Pelfrey - 6.11 - 91.9
    Vance Worley - 7.21 - 89.5

    That being said, I certainly think it is better to be Gibson and throw 92-93 with movement than to be Correia and throw 90-91 with movement.
    the correlation might not be as significant with just the starters, but then again, our starters tend to throw at about the same speed, and you left Gibson off. That said, your comment that it is well documented that relievers can add a few ticks to their pitches plays into exactly what Nick was saying. What likely can mess up those stats is that reliever that comes in and lets all of his inherited runners to score (affecting the pitcher) while still getting his outs vs. a guy like Perkins whose job is to pitch one inning.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by drjim View Post
    I'm not overly impressed with a guy who spent most of his age 27 season at AAA, but if the Twins would have wanted him they could have signed him for less than the arby figure as a free agent. There was no reason to include him in the trade.
    The decision to send Lannan down by the Nats was a controversial one, and a close call made at the close of spring training. It was largely a function of the Nats SP numbers game as they continued to improve their rotation depth with young arms- not a reflection of a sudden drop-off in Lannan. The Twins didn't want him, that is a given- as they had already "moved on" to being shrewd and "thrifty" with their dumpster diving methodology and rather peculiarly signing a starter just 8 months off of TJ surgery. So you and I can look at what the Twins are trotting out in the rotation now---- and the numbers that are the worst in baseball for starting pitchers--- and one can't possibly come to the conclusion that there "was no reason to include him in the trade." To the contrary, other than Deduno, Lannan would have been the best option coming out of spring training- better, and a more durable and reliable track record than Worley and Correia, at a cost of just one year's worth of Correia.

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