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Thread: Article: 2013 Minnesota Twins Trade Tutorial

  1. #1
    Twins Daily Writer Big-Leaguer Cody Christie's Avatar
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    Article: 2013 Minnesota Twins Trade Tutorial


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    I was planning on writing something similar to this. My 2 cents, FWIW:

    It's pretty rare to see more than a couple guys traded unless there's a larger multi-player swap. People tend to miss that. It takes time and there's a limited amount of that. My guess is that in spite of all the rumors, only a few guys will get traded. My prediction is that Doumit and Burton will go and maybe Correia and Pelfrey (though I think Pelf will likely be an August trade). I think I'd be happy if the Twins could trade all of these guys, or even half of them. There will be little market for Morneau, and I think given Willingham's play this year, unless he goes crazy suddenly, it would be wise to roll the dice for another season for a higher payday.

    You forgot Doumit. I think he gets traded. He's a catcher that posts an .800 OPS. Definitely cannot play every day, but for a national league team, having a guy who can be a DH for them is of use as well. I wouldn't be surprised if he brought back a 100-150 type prospect from a NL team that needs some offense, and I don't see his value increasing at all next season. This is a sell high guy.

    If there's demand for Plouffe and Perkins, these would be the type of trades that make Ryan famous. I don't see the Twins wanting to part ways with either player as both have a potential role in the future. Perkins is probably the more expendable of the two given his age and has the most value, so a team desparate for a shutdown setup man or closer woud likely overpay, and that isn't terribly uncommon at the trade deadline. I think it would take 2 top 100 prospects to make it work or 1 top 20 guy at a position of need with an intriguing long shot/high reward throw in. I would like to see that happen as I tend to think closers are overrated, but the Twins tend to disagree and he's a fan favorite, so I doubt that it happens.

    Plouffe has 3 more years of team control, and he could feasibly play any infield position. I think the Twins would be silly to trade him unless someone blows them away, and I don't see a scenario where that happens with Trevor, but agree he's a dark horse.

  3. #3
    I'm sure the Twins would give away Pelfrey for "future considerations". Of course, I'm not sure anyone would be willing to pay that much.

    Correia is an interesting case. He's been our best starter (think about how sad that statement is), but it's probably true that his stock will never be higher than it is right now, and maybe the Twins should cash in.

    I'm opposed to trading Willingham and Morneau for reasons I've stated previously: a lack of right handed bats (Willingham) and the fact I don't see anyone who can replace Morneau's production. Plus he's a fan favorite, and that counts for something.

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    Senior Member Double-A troyhobbs's Avatar
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    I don't see a lot of value in any twin's trade chips except Perkins but the bigger issue is the older guys blocking the way for the up comers. Twins erred on not unloading Willingham last year, his stock is way down but I'm all for trading for anything we can get with all these guys except for Plouffe, but he'd certainly be on my trade watch list for next year.

  5. #5
    Doumit needs to go, and will have a little bit of value.
    Burton could be a value if teams don't want to give up a lot to improve their bullpen.
    Morneau should be traded, but I doubt anyone will want him.

    Plouffe, Correia and Willingham all have more value to the Twins than they would on the open market which means the Twins would need to be blown away on an offer for anyof them. They are all pretty cheap for 2014, and none are really blocking any of our upcoming prospects. Some might believe Willingham and Plouffe are blocking players, but both could fill the DH spot regularly, and I am not counting on Sano breaking Spring 2014 with the club. Better to have too many productive players than trading them at a lower value and depending on your young players to contribute before they are ready.

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    My prediction is Willingham, Burton and Carroll get traded. Correia is a long shot, just find it doubtful any team gives up enough to make it worthwhile.

    A couple other points:

    -I suspect Willingham's value last year was lower than most people think. Obviously it was higher than right now so the Twins would have gotten something more valuable, but they still would have had an obvious hole at the position that would have needed to get filled last offseason.

    -Why do people want to trade Doumit? He is not going to bring much value in return, and he fills an obvious need for the Twins next year and is signed to a very reasonable contract.

    I think you make a deadline trade for three reasons:
    1. The player is going to be a free agent and does not fit into your plans for next year (think Carroll or possibly Morneau).
    2. The player has an obvious replacement that will be ready by the start of next season, or you have confidence that you can fill the hole in free agency the next offseason (think Willingham, Burton and/or Correia).
    3. The value offered is too high to say no (think Perkins).
    Papers...business papers.

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    I guess I tend to think Doumit is worth more than you do. I agree with your thoughts on why to do a trade, and yes I think Carol should be on the block too, but I don't see anyone wanting him. I would argue though that anyone not in the long term plans should be considered. Doumit is not a long term fixture, and I think Pinto could assume that role as soon as next season.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drjim View Post
    My prediction is Willingham, Burton and Carroll get traded. Correia is a long shot, just find it doubtful any team gives up enough to make it worthwhile.

    A couple other points:

    -I suspect Willingham's value last year was lower than most people think. Obviously it was higher than right now so the Twins would have gotten something more valuable, but they still would have had an obvious hole at the position that would have needed to get filled last offseason.

    -Why do people want to trade Doumit? He is not going to bring much value in return, and he fills an obvious need for the Twins next year and is signed to a very reasonable contract.

    I think you make a deadline trade for three reasons:
    1. The player is going to be a free agent and does not fit into your plans for next year (think Carroll or possibly Morneau).
    2. The player has an obvious replacement that will be ready by the start of next season, or you have confidence that you can fill the hole in free agency the next offseason (think Willingham, Burton and/or Correia).
    3. The value offered is too high to say no (think Perkins).
    4. the team saves money.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I guess I tend to think Doumit is worth more than you do. I agree with your thoughts on why to do a trade, and yes I think Carol should be on the block too, but I don't see anyone wanting him. I would argue though that anyone not in the long term plans should be considered. Doumit is not a long term fixture, and I think Pinto could assume that role as soon as next season.
    Carroll will be a "thanks for your service good luck as a backup on a contender" type of trade. They won't get anything worthwhile for him other than a little salary relief.

    I disagree that Pinto can jump in next year and equal what Doumit is doing. He is fine depth but Doumit has a clear role, especially at the beginning of the season. That is enough future value to hold on to him.

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    i doubt Twins trade any one. They tend to over value both their veterans & prospects. i.e. Cuddyer, Kubel, Nathan

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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    4. the team saves money.....
    How could I forget the one thing that drives Terry Ryan above all else...

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    Quote Originally Posted by rickyriolo View Post
    i doubt Twins trade any one. They tend to over value both their veterans & prospects. i.e. Cuddyer, Kubel, Nathan
    Different gm and different circumstances. Plus Kubel was hurt at the deadline and Nathan had a no trade and no value.

    Liriano is the obvious counterfactual.

  13. #13
    Super Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    My Gut feeling... The Twins do very little at the Deadline.

  14. #14
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    I think this year is a year of change from "do little" and "do nothing". The plan is much more obvious--the guys on the block won't be here when the Twins are good again and there will be demand for a couple of them.

  15. #15
    Senior Member Triple-A Monkeypaws's Avatar
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    I don't see the point in trading these guys just to trade them, especially for middling prospects that will likely never have an impact.

  16. #16
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Monkeypaws View Post
    I don't see the point in trading these guys just to trade them, especially for middling prospects that will likely never have an impact.
    I do. Beside saving money, the Twins would then have a chance to see if Colabello and Parmelee can be contributors along with Josmil Pinto.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stringer bell View Post
    I do. Beside saving money, the Twins would then have a chance to see if Colabello and Parmelee can be contributors along with Josmil Pinto.
    Parmelee I can understand.

    But I have no desire to see 29 yr old Colabello except in an emergency.

  18. #18
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    If the Rangers' Cruz gets suspended, then Willingham might be a real nice fit in Texas. IIRC, they have an over abundance of pitching prospects.

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