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Thread: The Value of Losing

  1. #21
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    I agree with vervehound......go all in on the rebuild. You aren't tanking, you are still playing the best players you have, they just might not be ready (or good) yet. But that's as much about playing for the future and getting guys' feet wet, and seeing what you have as anything else that might happen.
    Lighten up Francis....

  2. #22
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    This same issue is discussed ad nauseum by NFL fans every December and January. Even in the NFL where drafted players have a much more immediate impact, the consensus is that you never intentionally lose a game just to improve your draft status. Let's leave this silly talk for the NBA.

  3. #23
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Carlos. Rodon.

    (And there is no way the Twins can outsuck the suckiest. Best thing since Strasburg... and he'll be better long-term.)

    If the Twins were in the mix for #1 on Sept 1, they should absolutely play guys 26-40 as much as possible. But they won't be.

  4. #24
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    I don't think the players that play the game can try to lose. You get where they are by being a highly competitive presence. Management could set the team up to lose but even that would not be a guarantee that the team would lose given that the players would be trying to win.

    I am going to take the low road on this one despite though despite the facts. I just feel whether justifiable or not that the higher draft picks tend to have greater superstar potential. Although there are many, many examples of this assumption not working out I still believe picking higher throughout all rounds not to mention in the International draft is more advantageous than picking lower.

    If my team isn't likely to crack 500 then I am rooting for the players to do well but for the team to somehow lose. I think this season might be the last one where the twins will have a chance at the top 5 and then I think they are on their way up again if they find the pitching they need.

  5. #25
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    Do not like losing for the sake of losing. It can become a culture. Twins are far closer to rebuilding than most of the examples here. Most of the bad examples sold off their high price talent almost all the time. Their was no core to help the young players get over the hump. Here there is the core, hope it works out. That said selling parts that will not be of use 2 - 3 years from now should be done if you can get a good return. Unless that player really wants to be here, then it becomes an issue of what example are you setting. This is why the Morneau issue is such a problem.

  6. #26
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    This is not a playoff team and TR isn't going to sign big time free agents to get there. He will try building with the draft and minor league signings, trades. (kind of on the cheap) The point isn't to play to lose but to play the guys that might be there in a few years that will help you win. We have a bunch of guys that are still big question marks and need to play full time. Guys like Willy, Doumit, Carroll and even Morneau are not the long term answer. So get what you can for these guys so young guys that may be the answer can play full time. Find out what you have and what you need to get if they aren't the answer. The side benifit of this is you likely will lose a few more games and get higher picks but the real benifit is you find out what the young guys can do.
    This comment brought to you from the Rosedale Mall studio by Hamm's Beer, brewed in the land of sky blue waters.

  7. #27
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vervehound View Post
    there's another solution outside of tanking. 1) sell off all of your mediocre veteran talent and get something in return for them. 2) play prospects and anyone with long term upside. 3) if you win, you're setting yourself up for the long term, if you lose you get at bats and innings to guys you have questions about while also improving draft position.

    4) the twins are too stubborn an organization to likely consider 1). the fact that they don't know if they're buyers or sellers as of a week ago is utterly laughable. this team is smoke and mirrors at this point and the concept of selling high doesn't seem in their fabric.
    Basically what I was saying, though much more articulate. It isn't tanking per say, but I suspect the end result would be a bit of a drop in the standings.

  8. #28
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    I kind of felt the same way as CMB but then Shipley fell to #15 in this last draft, Appel fell to 8 in 2012 and Russell fell to 11. In 2011, Fernandez went 11, Bradley went 7 (seriously loaded draft). Sale went #13 in 2010 and so on. The draft is so unpredictable that the Twins should get a good player regardless if their scouts are doing their job. The elite talent will go in the first few spots but there usually isn't more than 3-4 elite players in a draft and we can't lose enough to catch up with a top 4 spot.

    My guess is the Twins won't finish with the 11th worst record. My guess is they'll finish around 7 or 8 and I do think Ryan will make several deadline trades. (I think the Twins are better than the White Sox, Seattle, Houston, Miami, Mets and Cubs for sure. After that, it's closer).

    (Oh, and I wanted Stewart over Gray).

  9. #29
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    I don't think the players that play the game can try to lose. You get where they are by being a highly competitive presence. Management could set the team up to lose but even that would not be a guarantee that the team would lose given that the players would be trying to win.

    I am going to take the low road on this one despite though despite the facts. I just feel whether justifiable or not that the higher draft picks tend to have greater superstar potential. Although there are many, many examples of this assumption not working out I still believe picking higher throughout all rounds not to mention in the International draft is more advantageous than picking lower.

    If my team isn't likely to crack 500 then I am rooting for the players to do well but for the team to somehow lose. I think this season might be the last one where the twins will have a chance at the top 5 and then I think they are on their way up again if they find the pitching they need.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vervehound View Post
    there's another solution outside of tanking. 1) sell off all of your mediocre veteran talent and get something in return for them. 2) play prospects and anyone with long term upside. 3) if you win, you're setting yourself up for the long term, if you lose you get at bats and innings to guys you have questions about while also improving draft position.

    4) the twins are too stubborn an organization to likely consider 1). the fact that they don't know if they're buyers or sellers as of a week ago is utterly laughable. this team is smoke and mirrors at this point and the concept of selling high doesn't seem in their fabric.
    This is hardly a fact. I've seen nothing that shows any indication that they are buyers and it is a fact several players are being openly shopped. The rebuilding process is a process and will take time. We're in much better shape than we were a year ago, and I've seen no indication this momentum is anywhere near slowing. Also, I know for a fact, the concept of selling high is not foreign to the Twins. I think Brock said it best recently. Posters fall into the trap where they feel they know more than GM's etc. and have the ability to hose said GM's in trades. It's another fact, that no poster has ever done this.

  11. #31
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    I'm against the full on blow it up rebuild being advocated by a few people here.

    First, I like it when the Twins win.

    Second, this team is further along than we may have thought gokng into the season. Competing as soon as next year might be realistic.

    Third, some of the guys mentioned in these trades could very much contribute to the team next year. In addition, the return for these guys will be minimal. What is the point of trading Doumit? He is signed for a reasonable contract next year, fits a need, isn't blocking a significant prospect, and wont result in much return. He has value to the Twins.

    Fourth, I think there is value in a winning culture (or at least a competent culture). The Twins are breaking in several young players this year that will hopefully form a successful core going forward, and I believe that is done easier on a somewhat successful team as opposed to starting from scratch.

    I am not opposed to a few smart trades - maybe Willingham and Burton, perhaps some guys that won't be on the roster next year. In short, only players with clear replacements for this year.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by drjim View Post
    I'm against the full on blow it up rebuild being advocated by a few people here.

    First, I like it when the Twins win.

    Second, this team is further along than we may have thought gokng into the season. Competing as soon as next year might be realistic.

    Third, some of the guys mentioned in these trades could very much contribute to the team next year. In addition, the return for these guys will be minimal. What is the point of trading Doumit? He is signed for a reasonable contract next year, fits a need, isn't blocking a significant prospect, and wont result in much return. He has value to the Twins.

    Fourth, I think there is value in a winning culture (or at least a competent culture). The Twins are breaking in several young players this year that will hopefully form a successful core going forward, and I believe that is done easier on a somewhat successful team as opposed to starting from scratch.

    I am not opposed to a few smart trades - maybe Willingham and Burton, perhaps some guys that won't be on the roster next year. In short, only players with clear replacements for this year.
    I don't see how. Over the next season we're going to start breaking in a whole bunch of rookies. Meyer, May, Sano, Rosario, Pinto, Santana, Tonkin, Achter should all get looks next year with other possibilities being Baxendale, Danny Ortiz, Cole Johnson, Angel Morales, James Beresford, Logan Darnell, Andrew Albers, Duffey, Wimmers, Vargas, Mejia, Eades, Zach and Tyler Jones. That doesn't even include Hicks, Arcia and Gibson from this year. That is just WAAAAAY to many rookies getting playing time to hope we'll be competitive. What we see this year is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. Next year begins the real transfer of power.

  13. #33
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    I guess some people took what I wrote wrong. I wasn't suggesting the Twins should tank. I'm not saying the Twins should purposefully try to throw games. All I was trying to do is show that with losing, rebuilding, there is value in having a few extra L. While tanking and rebuilding have some similarities, they are not the same thing.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I kind of felt the same way as CMB but then Shipley fell to #15 in this last draft, Appel fell to 8 in 2012 and Russell fell to 11. In 2011, Fernandez went 11, Bradley went 7 (seriously loaded draft). Sale went #13 in 2010 and so on. The draft is so unpredictable that the Twins should get a good player regardless if their scouts are doing their job. The elite talent will go in the first few spots but there usually isn't more than 3-4 elite players in a draft and we can't lose enough to catch up with a top 4 spot.

    My guess is the Twins won't finish with the 11th worst record. My guess is they'll finish around 7 or 8 and I do think Ryan will make several deadline trades. (I think the Twins are better than the White Sox, Seattle, Houston, Miami, Mets and Cubs for sure. After that, it's closer).

    (Oh, and I wanted Stewart over Gray).
    I completely agree. You don't have to get a player from the "expert" proclaimed top tier of talent to get a great player. Your examples definitely prove that. The one thing I will say is that the higher the pick the greater chance of big league success. BA actually did a study right before this last draft showing that the higher the pick the better chance of big league success. Which shouldn't come as a shock to anyone.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    This is hardly a fact. I've seen nothing that shows any indication that they are buyers and it is a fact several players are being openly shopped. The rebuilding process is a process and will take time. We're in much better shape than we were a year ago, and I've seen no indication this momentum is anywhere near slowing. Also, I know for a fact, the concept of selling high is not foreign to the Twins. I think Brock said it best recently. Posters fall into the trap where they feel they know more than GM's etc. and have the ability to hose said GM's in trades. It's another fact, that no poster has ever done this.
    there is empirical evidence that suggests we haven't realized when we've sucked before, see the 2011 season as exhibit a, nor have we proactively shopped guys even when we're out of it (see willingham and others last year). couple that with the comments interspersed on the main board (will not shop correia, etc.) and you seem to have the misguided notion that we think we may be better than we are.

    i think we can agree to let their (in)actions speak for themselves and i'd rather have zack wheeler than travis harrison (pseduo kidding).

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vervehound View Post
    there is empirical evidence that suggests we haven't realized when we've sucked before, see the 2011 season as exhibit a, nor have we proactively shopped guys even when we're out of it (see willingham and others last year). couple that with the comments interspersed on the main board (will not shop correia, etc.) and you seem to have the misguided notion that we think we may be better than we are.

    i think we can agree to let their (in)actions speak for themselves and i'd rather have zack wheeler than travis harrison (pseduo kidding).
    I think you're comparing apples to oranges. We had a different GM in 2011. Ryan has been known to make trades in seasons like this - he made a bunch of them in the 90s and he also traded Castillo in 2007 when the Twins had a winning record and were 7 games back. He's a realist. He's not afraid to make trades we he has the opportunity and he hasn't been bullied into making bad ones. The Twins didn't have to make any moves at the deadline last year. The best rumor out there for Willingham was a #4 type starter - Sean Gilmartin was floated around a bit. So, he didn't see a deal he liked so he kept Span and Willingham and Burton and he might make another move this deadline or this offseason.

  17. #37
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    I really don't think tanking exists in the majors. Obviously, you could argue that selling at the deadline is, but really, teams want to win whatever they can get. Every player will try their best and do what it takes to win. I think the whole "tanking" is a fan perception and that's okay. Do you really want your team to lose for it to pay off larger dividends later? Or do you want to win despite the nearly non-existent chances of competing for a pennant now? Personally, I like tWINs and in baseball the incentives for "tanking" aren't substantial. Even at the end of an unsuccessful season (when they're eliminated), I want to win as much as they possibly can.

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