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Thread: Article: Geeking Out: OPS Minus Batting Average

  1. #21
    Senior Member All-Star crarko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Badsmerf View Post
    Have I ever said I have a B.S. in Mathematics? I love the numbers in baseball and how to interpret them. There is almost no 2 people that place the same emphasis on the same categories. One of the many reasons I absolutely love this game.
    Huh, me too, although the truths hidden in these numbers is often pretty gray. I would say that Huff should be mandatory reading for anyone who argues baseball statistics.

  2. #22
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    I can't run the numbers myself - I'm a little busy this morning - but would anyone like to do a quick correlation between Seth's OPS-BA stat and Runs scored and share it with us?

  3. #23
    Senior Member All-Star Badsmerf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forever34 View Post
    I'm not an expert on advanced metrics, but I'm trying to start a new stat called Total Batting Productivity. It is calculated similar to slugging in that it assigns 1 point for a single, 2 for a double etc., but also subtracts 1 point for a strikeout, 2 for a GiDP, and 3 for those rare GiTP. All of that is divided by total number of at bats.

    A similar more advanced stat would be Total Offensive Productivity which not only includes 1 point for walks and HBP but also 1 for stolen bases. It also subtracts 1 for a caught stealing and is divided by total plate appearances.
    Problem with that is you are counting things against a play that he has no control over. For example, a ball hit to SS is an out with no runners on and a GIDP with a runner on first, but not on second and possibly an RBI if the runner on 3b is fast and it is late in the game with the SS playing deep. See, too many variables to make it credible.
    Do or do not. There is no try.

  4. #24
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forever34 View Post
    I'm not an expert on advanced metrics, but I'm trying to start a new stat called Total Batting Productivity. It is calculated similar to slugging in that it assigns 1 point for a single, 2 for a double etc., but also subtracts 1 point for a strikeout, 2 for a GiDP, and 3 for those rare GiTP. All of that is divided by total number of at bats.

    A similar more advanced stat would be Total Offensive Productivity which not only includes 1 point for walks and HBP but also 1 for stolen bases. It also subtracts 1 for a caught stealing and is divided by total plate appearances.
    Interesting ideas. Some feedback: I think a big shortfall is assigning full integer values to all outcomes. IE - A strikeout isn't equally as bad as a single is good.

    Stats like wOBA do a pretty good job of measuring all batting outcomes based on their true impact. Here's a link: wOBA | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

  5. #25
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    John, it showed up in the article I linked to earlier (Correlation Between Stats and Runs, etc.) in the alternate form a few people pointed out (ISO+OBP). The r value to runs was .941 compared to .960 for OPS alone.

  6. #26
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    John, it showed up in the article I linked to earlier (Correlation Between Stats and Runs, etc.) in the alternate form a few people pointed out (ISO+OBP). The r value to runs was .941 compared to .960 for OPS alone.
    Thanks. I think this suggests that OPS and OPS-BA are essentially equal in their importance for a team. OPS is SLIGHTLY more important, but that's splitting hairs. They're essentially equivalent.

    So whether you count the hits once or twice, it's about the same, although it might be just a little better to count the hits twice, for whatever reason.

  7. #27
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    As for dropping BA from OPS, IMO we'd all be better off dropping OPS and using the triple slash line instead. All OBP is not created the same. A single is worth more than a walk, for example, and by knowing BA/OBP/SLG you get a pretty clear picture of a hitter...clearer than combining OBP and SLG into one number, IMO.
    For individual players, definitely. You want more than one stat line to judge the efficacy of a player.

    For quick and dirty analysis or team stats, I think OPS has more of a place, as multiple batters tend to cancel out extreme variances in OBP and/or SLG.

  8. #28
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Badsmerf View Post
    OBP skills tend to follow a player much better than SLUG. I agree with valuing OBP in young players because it is so difficult to project power in the MLB.

    I don't know if we are arguing over a point or just having a discussion right now.
    We'll just call it an arcussionment.

  9. #29
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Here's an interesting look at some of Brock's musings on the value of the OBP guy vs the SLG guy. Lineup Styles, Part One - Beyond the Box Score

    "The high-OBP lineup scored about 10% more runs than the high-SLG lineup. In the comments section, he notes that the lower wOBA gets, the OBP-heavy lineups decrease production faster, eventually being passed by SLG-heavy lineups."

  10. #30
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    I hate batting average. I think every team should be coached to hit the way Toronto coaches their hitters. Just swing hard all the time and hit dingers. Maybe now you people can understand why I'm not a big Mauer fan.

  11. #31
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    Obviously my previous post was facetious, but I really get sick of hearing about Mauer's career BA. The guy is big and strong he should be hitting for more power. Remember 09? Where did that go?

  12. #32
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Badsmerf View Post
    Have I ever said I have a B.S. in Mathematics? I love the numbers in baseball and how to interpret them. There is almost no 2 people that place the same emphasis on the same categories. One of the many reasons I absolutely love this game.
    I was only smart enough to get a math minor, so you win... I completely agree with you, and I think through all of the discussion, I really just like putting the Triple Sash together and realizing that all three numbers tell you a little something about the player. Batting average says one thing. On-Base Percentage says something else. Slugging says yet another thing. OPS tries to bring it all together. The only thing I wonder about is batting average really counting twice. Like has been pointed out above, you could also call it Isolated Power + OBP, or SLG + Isolated Patience.

  13. #33
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fairweather View Post
    Obviously my previous post was facetious, but I really get sick of hearing about Mauer's career BA. The guy is big and strong he should be hitting for more power. Remember 09? Where did that go?
    Mauer is a terrific BA guy, and that's not a bad thing. he's an even bigger OBP guy, which is more important. And, where did '09 go? It appears he's approaching those levels again in 2013 in a bigger ballpark.

  14. #34
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fairweather View Post
    Obviously my previous post was facetious, but I really get sick of hearing about Mauer's career BA. The guy is big and strong he should be hitting for more power. Remember 09? Where did that go?
    A Google search reveals that the Twins no longer play home games in the Metrodome.

    Who knew?

  15. #35
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    I've seen it mentioned a few times already, but it really is too bad that stolen bases cant carry any weight in OPS. You could have a .650 OPS but have 80SB a year and have inferior players look better than you by numbers alone.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by edavis0308 View Post
    I've seen it mentioned a few times already, but it really is too bad that stolen bases cant carry any weight in OPS. You could have a .650 OPS but have 80SB a year and have inferior players look better than you by numbers alone.
    Guess that depends on how you value stolen bases

  17. #37
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by edavis0308 View Post
    I've seen it mentioned a few times already, but it really is too bad that stolen bases cant carry any weight in OPS. You could have a .650 OPS but have 80SB a year and have inferior players look better than you by numbers alone.
    I agree. OPS is known to undervalue OBP to start with, but SBs compound it further. Even wOBA, an excellent stat, doesn't account for value added by a SB.

    Since a SB essentially adds a base to the original hit, I wonder what it would look like if we added (SB-CS) to the SLG portion?

  18. #38
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    I agree. OPS is known to undervalue OBP to start with, but SBs compound it further. Even wOBA, an excellent stat, doesn't account for value added by a SB.

    Since a SB essentially adds a base to the original hit, I wonder what it would look like if we added (SB-CS) to the SLG portion?
    You'd want to do more than just add (SB-CS). If no one is on base when the hit/walk occurs, a later CS completely erases any positive effect of the hit/walk so OBP should also be adjusted. If someone is on base when the hit/walk occurred and there is a later CS, you'll need to find some way to measure the positive effect of moving the runner forward but erasing the actual "on-base" benefit of the hit/walk.

  19. #39
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    You'd want to do more than just add (SB-CS). If no one is on base when the hit/walk occurs, a later CS completely erases any positive effect of the hit/walk so OBP should also be adjusted. If someone is on base when the hit/walk occurred and there is a later CS, you'll need to find some way to measure the positive effect of moving the runner forward but erasing the actual "on-base" benefit of the hit/walk.
    You're right. The first situation would seem to happen a lot more often than the second. To keep it relatively simple, what about (SB-2*CS)? This would remove credit for the original hit/walk?

  20. #40
    Senior Member Triple-A Don't Feed the Greed Guy's Avatar
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    Okay, what's the best metric for compiling offensive and defensive statistics? WAR? And if so, I understand that Baseball Reference and Fangraphs have different ways of calculating WAR. Are there other metrics that do this?

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