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Thread: Oswaldo Arcia as a Rookie of the Year Candidate?

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chance View Post
    I just figured that if parmelee can play a decent RF so could Arcia and wouldnt Hicks speed be better served in LF? Maybe I'm wrong, that was just my thought process.
    Hicks is better OF, and he has a better arm, IMO. That's why, when Buxton comes up, I'd move Hicks to RF and have Arcia in LF. When we were in the dome, LF was harder to play than RF due to the lights being right in your face and more room to roam. RF had the baggy but less room to roam. Most parks, however, make it necessary to have your worst OF in LF, though Target field is very close in terms of room to roam, with LF only having a little bit more space. The arm is the biggest factor for TF.
    Last edited by ThePuck; 06-24-2013 at 02:12 PM.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldgoat_MN View Post
    Oswaldo Arcia:
    April - .216/.275/.405 (.680)
    May - .279/.343/.475 (.819)
    June - .289/.357/.553 (.910)
    The important thing here is that Arcia was sent back to Rochester in May before returning in June. As you might expect, he has been much better in his second stint than the first:

    1st stint (April and May): .767 OPS 7.5% BB 28% K .27 BB/K
    2nd stint (June) : .910 OPS 8.5% BB 21% K .4 BB/K

    His BB and K numbers are pretty similar to what he posted last season in Ft. Myers and New Britain (roughly 9.5% BB, 20%K).

    I wouldn't expect Arcia to post a .910 OPS the rest of the year, but it seems like something might have clicked during his demotion to Rochester. Hopefully the Twins keep Hicks in AAA "rehabbing" for a few weeks and something will click for him too.

  3. #43
    Senior Member Triple-A mcrow's Avatar
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    The thing with rookies is they are prone to be streaky. He's in a good stretch now so whether or not he wins AL ROY will depend on how long the next slump will be.

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Schad View Post
    What I like about him is that he exceeds expectations.
    A high BABIP (.340 as of today) will help a guy do that.

    I am still concerned about his strikeout and walk rates, and the fact that his defense has wiped out his offensive value to this point. I hope that he can improve those aspects of his game; if not, it's really going to lower his ceiling. I'm not so sure that he's going to be the future All-Star LF that most Twins fans imagine. A young guy who strikes out a lot, doesn't walk too much, and can't cover Leftfield might turn out to be a decent 1st baseman for a few years, but that isn't exactly a cornerstone of the next contending Twins team, is it?

  5. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by Boone View Post
    The important thing here is that Arcia was sent back to Rochester in May before returning in June. As you might expect, he has been much better in his second stint than the first....
    Also worth noting that his June split is a sample of 47 PA. And he has a .367 BABIP since his return. He looks great right now, but at some point pitchers will make adjustments, balls in play won't fall in for him so much... and then we'll see. We might not be able to get a good read on him at all this season. We might have to wait until next season, maybe longer, for him to start settling toward his true level.

  6. #46
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by frightwig View Post
    I'm not so sure that he's going to be the future All-Star LF that most Twins fans imagine. A young guy who strikes out a lot, doesn't walk too much, and can't cover Leftfield might turn out to be a decent 1st baseman for a few years, but that isn't exactly a cornerstone of the next contending Twins team, is it?
    I'm not so sure I've seen most people proclaiming "future All-Star", but you make some good points otherwise. How he adjusts and continues to develop will certainly determine his outcome. The Kubel comp seems very achieveable and Jason was a big part of the team for a number of years.

  7. #47
    Senior Member Triple-A Steve Lein's Avatar
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    well, he's leading American League Rookies (per MLB.com), in doubles, HR's (tied with Hicks), RBI's, and is second in OPS (to Jose Iglesias of all players), so yes, I'd say he's a legitimate candidate!
    Scouting Report: Tools - Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)
    Spring Training Regular since 2011.

  8. #48
    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by frightwig View Post
    A high BABIP (.340 as of today) will help a guy do that.

    I am still concerned about his strikeout and walk rates, and the fact that his defense has wiped out his offensive value to this point. I hope that he can improve those aspects of his game; if not, it's really going to lower his ceiling. I'm not so sure that he's going to be the future All-Star LF that most Twins fans imagine. A young guy who strikes out a lot, doesn't walk too much, and can't cover Leftfield might turn out to be a decent 1st baseman for a few years, but that isn't exactly a cornerstone of the next contending Twins team, is it?
    I think you're judging his negatives a little too harshly. He's 22. Not at all uncommon (or noteworthy) for green rookies to have some plate discipline & fielding issues.

  9. #49
    Senior Member Triple-A mcrow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
    I think you're judging his negatives a little too harshly. He's 22. Not at all uncommon (or noteworthy) for green rookies to have some plate discipline & fielding issues.
    Yes, there are not many rookies that don't ahve discipline (at the plate or not) or fielding issues (many times both!).

  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    He's more than a legitimate candidate - he might be the frontrunner.
    By fWAR, here are the top 5 rookie position players in the AL right now (min 100 PA):

    Jose Iglesias (Red Sox): .426/.479/.529 in 121 PA, 1.4 WAR
    Yan Gomes (Indians): .257/.277/.505 in 112 PA, 1.1 WAR
    Brandon Barnes (Astros): .263/.316/.375 in 178 PA, 1.0 WAR
    Leonys Martin (Rangers): .282/.335/.418 in 188 PA, 0.9 WAR
    Nick Franklin (Mariners): .283/.359/.489 in 103 PA, 0.8 WAR
    ...
    10) Oswaldo Arcia (Twins): .271/.338/.486 in 154 PA, 0.1 WAR

    (I'll leave out pitchers, because there isn't a great rookie SP or hot rookie closer right now.)

    Now, Iglesias will cool off, but could wind up with an impressive line anyway, given a start as hot as that. And playing SS/3B in Boston will not go unnoticed, either.

    Gomes has a poor OBP, but a Catcher with some pop in his bat could get votes.

    Barnes, as a 27 year-old outfielder without much pop... probably not a real contender.

    Martin isn't a great masher, either, but a Centerfielder with a decent slash line for a contending team might get ROY notice this year.

    Franklin got a relatively late start, but like Arcia he's a highly rated prospect, age 22, and has impressed out of the gate. Plus, he'll get bonus points for playing 2nd base.

    Arcia should be in the ROY conversation if he can sustain his batting numbers, because his defense probably won't hurt his chances much, if at all, but I think there are at least 4 other candidates who look as likely at this point to take home the award.
    Last edited by frightwig; 06-24-2013 at 03:49 PM.

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
    I think you're judging his negatives a little too harshly. He's 22. Not at all uncommon (or noteworthy) for green rookies to have some plate discipline & fielding issues.
    For comparison, Nick Franklin, the Mariners 2nd base prospect, who is also 22, has a 10.7% walk rate, 15.5% strikeout rate in his initial 103 PA "at the major league level" (circle me, Bert). Arcia in 154 PA is at 7.8% and 26.0%. Actually, Arcia's strikeout rate is about the same as Aaron Hicks' 26.5%, and his walk rate is a bit worse than Hicks' 8.5%. The biggest difference between them is luck on balls in play. Arcia looks like a potential ROY with his .340 BABIP, while poor Aaron Hicks looked like he didn't belong on the team with his .217 BABIP.

    The other day, Gleeman posted something about how Arcia's OPS stacked up against other 22 year-olds in Twins history, like Hrbek, Ortiz, Mauer, and Brunansky.

    Did they have such problems with plate discipline at age 22?

    Let's see...

    Hrbek: 9.1 BB%, 13.5 K%
    Ortiz: 12.0 BB%, 22.1 K%
    Mauer: 11.0 BB%, 11.6 K%
    Brunansky: 10.0 BB%, 15.5K%

    Nope, not really. David Ortiz's strikeout rate was a bit high, which I'd guess was a reason Tom Kelly made him spend the next season in AAA, but it wasn't as high as Arcia's--and Ortiz even at 22 knew how to work a walk. The rest of those guys had a solid plate approach from a young age, which was a good indication of their successful careers to come. Oswaldo Arcia is not in their class. He needs to do a lot of work on his plate approach if he's going to be mentioned in that kind of company again, after this year.
    Last edited by frightwig; 06-24-2013 at 04:31 PM.

  12. #52
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    frightwig, love the information! love the data!

    thanks, context is always good.
    Lighten up Francis....

  13. #53
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    To toss a few more numbers out there. Comparison to recent big name rookies:

    Player BB% K%
    O.Arcia 7.8% 26%
    B.Harper 9.4% 20.1%
    J.Segura 7.8% 13.9%
    A.Rizzo 7.3% 16.8%
    M.Machado 4.5% 18.8%
    G.Stanton 8.6% 31.1%
    C.Headley 8.2% 28.3%
    C.Davis 6.3% 27.8%
    C.Gonzalez 4.1% 25.6%

    Out of 194 rookies debuting in the last 5 years Arcia's walk % would rank 70th as it stands today. His strike out rate would rank him 25th worst. As you can see from the names above rookie stats mean little going forward. Each of those players have turned into big producers despite their "low" walk rates or high K rates. What is more important is what he does this off season to improve.

  14. #54
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by frightwig View Post
    By fWAR, here are the top 5 rookie position players in the AL

    Arcia should be in the ROY conversation if he can sustain his batting numbers, because his defense probably won't hurt his chances much, if at all, but I think there are at least 4 other candidates who look as likely at this point to take home the award.
    As you mention in the very last paragraph, defense won't matter (much). The problem is, that's exactly where he's losing his WAR value. Arcia is 2nd in wOBA and 3rd in wRC+, better measures of offensive contributions (and more relevant for this discussion) than WAR.

  15. #55
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by frightwig View Post
    The biggest difference between them is luck on balls in play. Arcia looks like a potential ROY with his .340 BABIP, while poor Aaron Hicks looked like he didn't belong on the team with his .217 BABIP.

    The other day, Gleeman posted something about how Arcia's OPS stacked up against other 22 year-olds in Twins history, like Hrbek, Ortiz, Mauer, and Brunansky.

    Did they have such problems with plate discipline at age 22?

    Let's see...

    Hrbek: 9.1 BB%, 13.5 K%
    Ortiz: 12.0 BB%, 22.1 K%
    Mauer: 11.0 BB%, 11.6 K%
    Brunansky: 10.0 BB%, 15.5K%
    Assigning BABIP differences solely to luck is a common fallacy. While Hicks will inevitably improve on his, he wasn't making great contact and was striking out at truly obscene rates. A .340 for Arcia might be a shade high, but it isn't anywhere near unreasonable for a guy who can hit the ball and make hard contact frequently like he can. Even ZIPS projects .330 for the rest of the season.

    As Oxtung also illustrated here, trying to compare him to players from a different era doesn't work. Of course those previous Twins players had a better K-rate, the league average has increased 30% since just 10 years ago.

    Oswaldo needs to continue improving, but overly selective data doesn't prove much. 22 year olds that can hold their own tend to turn into solid contributors.
    Last edited by jay; 06-28-2013 at 09:48 AM.

  16. #56
    Twins Contributor Big-Leaguer Cody Christie's Avatar
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    If they gave away a rookie of the year award for the first half of the season, he might get the award for the American League.

  17. #57
    Let's just appreciate the player in arcia who has flown through the Twins minor league system faster than anyone would have ever expected. He is 22 and is batting 5th in the lineup. He is making clutch hits. I don't know what his ceiling will be, but his floor looks pretty good right now.

    Also keep in mind that he is in a division with some pretty good pitchers.

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