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Thread: In Defense of Defense

  1. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by VodkaDave View Post
    632 PA isn't exactly a small sample size. And his OPS outside of rookie ball and low A was .728 and decreased every single level he progressed. The reason this happened was because MLB MI > AAA MI > AA MI > A+ MI > A MI >ROOKIE BALL MI

    The bull**** infield hits he was getting against raw 17-19 year olds weren't happening as he moved up levels.
    I for one think Revere has the potential to become a surprisingly solid player, but to pretend that his track record indicates he should automatically get the benefit of the doubt at the plate is highly misguided.

    As mentioned above, Revere has to figure out a way to hit with some more pop, and increase his average to the .320 or so range in the majors to even be considered a close to average every day player.

    Also, you say Revere's . 606 OPS isn't a big deal, then Dismiss Doumits .775 a few sentences later. a .175 difference in OPS is pretty significant.
    Exactly. Revere is not a home run hitter, nor does he need to become one. If he hits one this season I'll be pleasantly surprised. But if Revere is going to be a starter, specifically one at a corner outfield spot, he needs to hit the ball to the outfield more. Revere is fun to watch, and you can tell he plays hard every game, but that alone doesn't make you a starter at a position that is typically reserved for your better hitters in the lineup.

    And to be clear, I'm not a huge fan of doumit or plouffe, but their bats represent a significant improvement over revere's at this moment.

  2. #42
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    I'm not saying Revere is a slam dunk. I'm saying he's the best of our current options. Its actually 484 PA and that is a small sample size especially since he's facing Verlander and Bruce Chen now. It's not even a year of work. Only the absolute elite rookies come flying out of the box so please give the kid a break. He's young... Young players improve or they are forced to change careers. Saying he has to hit .320 to earn his job is flat out misguided but I respect your right to say it and his track record suggests that he just might do that.

    I'm only dismissing Doumits OPS because he's a vet and what he is... has been established. Im happy with Doumit in a Twins uniform. We need the help. I just don't buy the argument that he hits enough to risk the range and defensive ability with our pitching staff and questionable overall Twins offensive potential. A once a week ball that doesn't get cut off or caught could be 3 runs and we can't afford 3 runs. Not THIS TEAM. We are not the Rangers and everyone here knows that. That's my argument and I stand by it so go ahead and throw every stat at me. I know what they mean and It means nothing because Revere played last year for the first time and I thought he played well and my expectations of the rookie were realistic.

    I've seen too many rookies come up and get eaten alive only to ride it out and become ballplayers a couple of years later. Revere was a rookie last year and he didnt get eaten alive. He just isn't your kinda ballplayer. I've been forced to defend the little guy and his value and potential. It has turned into this Revere man crush from me and in reality I would relegate Revere to my bench the minute Mike Trout or Corey Hart is traded for.

    You can argue stats with me all day long... lol... Maybe Revere starts gapping some balls in the weeks, months or years to follow. Maybe he just keeps beating out bull**** IF singles. I don't care. Either way he's on base and he is manning a corner and preventing extra base hits with his wheels and glove. His stats are fine... Better than Plouffe or Parmelee overall so far but that isn't the point.

    Baseball is more than stats that's the point. There is room for power and there is room for speed. Don't hold the
    lack of speed against Adrian Gonzalez and don't hold the lack of power against Michael Bourn.

    If you want to overlook defense and the effect on stats... Look at the performance of Mr. Velencia yesterday. No errors were charged to him but his bad defense on two plays cost the Twins and Liriano 3 runs. Lirianos ERA went from 4.50 to 11.25 because of Danny. This stuff happens all the time and pitchers ERA's are effected by it. The Twins defense was unwatchable last year and all of our starters stats were inflated as a result. The easiest way to lose a game is to give the opponent extra outs. Defense is huge... From a morale and scoreboard standpoint and if you don't realize that, you need to watch the game and take your nose out of the stats for a second... I know that last line sounded snotty but I do say that respectfully...

    You can sacrifice defense for hitting but you gotta have the hitting to do it. We don't!!! That's the point. The point really isn't Revere.

  3. #43
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    This is just a discussion and opposite points of view. I'm hopeful that everyone takes the discussion in that spirit. I want vodkadave and the greatest poster alive to realize that I'm on your side even if I'm against your side.
    Last edited by Riverbrian; 04-08-2012 at 09:19 PM. Reason: Typing on an iPad with one finger

  4. #44
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    I think our argument with your point is that you are stating that Revere has the best chance of not making outs at the best rate at the major league level, whereas the counter argument is that he has not demonstrated to do that in a year's worth of plate appearances in the majors yet. He might and probably will eventually, but he hasn't yet.

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
    This is just a discussion and opposite points of view. I'm hopeful that everyone takes the discussion in that spirit. I want vodkadave and the greatest poster alive to realize that I'm on your side even if I'm against your side.
    Oh yeah totally, believe me I think the best thing for this team would be for Revere to prove to be a capable every day outfielder (hitting wise) that would allow us to have two above average options at CF and allow us to trade one of them (prob Span) for some pitching help or INF help.

    The thing is out of our current 1st, DH and OF options currently "ahead" of Revere on the depth chart: Willingham, Doumit, Mauer, Morneau and Span all have had pretty significant injury issues over the past 2 years or so. So more likely then not Revere will get a chance for at least another 350-400 PA this year and we should know where he stands.

    Just at this point I am pretty hesitant on Revere's long term potential to be an everyday player (more so at an important offensive position like RF or LF) If you had an INF of Cano, Jeter, A-Rod and Tex then maybe you can live with a sub .700 in RF, but on this current team the Twins need bats in the corner OF. With all that said, I think Revere has a pretty decent career ahead of himself one way or another, guys like Pierre have had a nice little career as a role player/bench guy/occasional stop gap starter.

    If by some reason Willingham, Doumit, Span, Morneau (DH spot), Mauer (every day catcher) all stay healthy and effective throughout the year then we have a really good problem on our hands

  6. #46
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by edavis0308 View Post
    I think our argument with your point is that you are stating that Revere has the best chance of not making outs at the best rate at the major league level, whereas the counter argument is that he has not demonstrated to do that in a year's worth of plate appearances in the majors yet. He might and probably will eventually, but he hasn't yet.
    Im cool with that. I also believe that Revere hasn't proven anything. He played well last year but so did Velencia two years ago.

    I believe that Doumit has proven what he can do and it isn't enough to negate the defensive risk. I like Doumit at DH and backup catcher and even backup OF and 1B on occasion. Play him just don't kill your OF range potential for a 15 dinger guy when Revere is in the dugout.

    Given the choice... Revere is my guy because he has .300 potential based on his contact rate speed and minor league track record. 50 Stolen base potential based on 34 steals in roughly two thirds of a season and I believe he can improve his walk rate and most importantly... The ball is gonna get knocked around the park and we need guys who can chase them down and provide defensive inspiration(which can be infectious) for what looked last year like a defense stuck in mud.

    In a nutshell...I believe Revere has earned the starting job based on a decent rookie performance last year set against a backdrop of the worst baseball played since Calvin Griffith owned the team and sold everyone. I do not believe that Terry Ryan has brought in a better option. Revere hasn't earned the job yet nor has he played badly enough to have it ripped from his hands either.

  7. #47
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by VodkaDave View Post
    Oh yeah totally, believe me I think the best thing for this team would be for Revere to prove to be a capable every day outfielder (hitting wise) that would allow us to have two above average options at CF and allow us to trade one of them (prob Span) for some pitching help or INF help.The thing is out of our current 1st, DH and OF options currently "ahead" of Revere on the depth chart: Willingham, Doumit, Mauer, Morneau and Span all have had pretty significant injury issues over the past 2 years or so. So more likely then not Revere will get a chance for at least another 350-400 PA this year and we should know where he stands.Just at this point I am pretty hesitant on Revere's long term potential to be an everyday player (more so at an important offensive position like RF or LF) If you had an INF of Cano, Jeter, A-Rod and Tex then maybe you can live with a sub .700 in RF, but on this current team the Twins need bats in the corner OF. With all that said, I think Revere has a pretty decent career ahead of himself one way or another, guys like Pierre have had a nice little career as a role player/bench guy/occasional stop gap starter.If by some reason Willingham, Doumit, Span, Morneau (DH spot), Mauer (every day catcher) all stay healthy and effective throughout the year then we have a really good problem on our hands
    I get the Cano point. I dont believe certains positions have to be a certain type of hitter. In a ballpark like target field I am not afraid to lineup Revere and Span together side by side. I remember Lonnie Smirh and Willie Wilson giving the Twins fits in 1985 and using that formula all the way to the World Series. I'm not saying that will happen this year if Gardy takes my advice tho lol... The trade bait is another angle and I agree 100 percent. Look what the Braves paid for Bourn last year. Actually the Astros got hosed but the Braves wanted Bourn. There are teams that value speed and really need it. We have holes to fill.
    Last edited by Riverbrian; 04-08-2012 at 10:21 PM. Reason: I remembered that The Astros got hosed

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Greatest Poster Alive View Post
    OPS is not only affected by HR's. It also takes into account extra base hits. A player with his speed should be hitting more doubles and triples, but he simply isn't. The vast majority of his game is infield singles, and that simply isn't sustainable. Ben Revere is a 4th outfielder at best, I'm glad that's the position he's been given this season.
    Vast majority? Really? If your argument relies on telling fibs, it's not likely a well-constructed one.

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDog View Post
    Vast majority? Really? If your argument relies on telling fibs, it's not likely a well-constructed one.
    From a quick google search:
    While playing around with Fangraphs, I found quite an interesting statistic. Going back to 2001 (as far back as FanGraphs’ batted ball data goes) among all players with at least 450 plate appearances in a season, Ben Revere holds the record for most ground balls per fly ball at 5.91. His closest competition? Luis Castillo who posted a 4.13 mark in 2005.

    While Ben Revere is an exciting player, he is also hitting groundballs at an unheard of rate. Just take a look at his hit chart from Bill James’ Baseball IQ:


    Looks like a lot of ground balls in the infield (and a TON to the pitcher)

  10. #50
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    Revere's Infield Hit % is also on fangraphs. It's not the vast majority of them. Or a majority at all. Or a third of them. Or a quarter. Or a fifth. Or...

  11. #51
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by VodkaDave View Post
    From a quick google search:
    While playing around with Fangraphs, I found quite an interesting statistic. Going back to 2001 (as far back as FanGraphs’ batted ball data goes) among all players with at least 450 plate appearances in a season, Ben Revere holds the record for most ground balls per fly ball at 5.91. His closest competition? Luis Castillo who posted a 4.13 mark in 2005.

    While Ben Revere is an exciting player, he is also hitting groundballs at an unheard of rate. Just take a look at his hit chart from Bill James’ Baseball IQ:


    Looks like a lot of ground balls in the infield (and a TON to the pitcher)
    Im sure you know that coaches at all levels tell players with speed like Ben has and power like Ben has to hit the ball on the ground. Looks to me like a coachable kid who listens. lol...

    Even better, I love the concentration of action up the middle. That explains the consistent .300 batting average. I'm disappointed that there isn't any blue around the 500 foot line!

    Seriously... Not to speak for Cdog... I think it was the word hits... Assuming base hits that he was questioning. If the ball scoots through the infield it's not an infield hit. I don't believe the vast majority of his base hits were infield hits either. It maybe a question of phrasing.

  12. #52
    Calling Doumit a "super utility" player is kind of like using that term for Adam Dunn or Mat Gamel. He's actually a player without a position that has hit well enough in short bursts to allow him to pretend to play a variety of different positions. He's also a product of playing for a bad team in the NL where the DH isn't an option...they HAD to find a position for him to try and get some degree of help to his offense, that doesn't mean he can actually PLAY any of those positions.

    The defense sucked all weekend - and for all the talk about Carroll, his glove was actually quite good (the bat...not so much). Doumit is the opposite problem: He's going to suck in the field, but the problem isn't as much that as the fact that his bat isn't good enough to put up with this level of defense at any of these positions.

    When I said all winter that I didn't like the Doumit signing too much, that was under the assumption that Butera was on a "scholarship" and we were carrying 3 catchers for sure. With that not happening (at least for now...could change obviously), it's pretty terrifying to have Doumit catching any time Mauer is getting a break. The double steal yesterday was an example of that. The perception of a bad defensive catcher is almost as harmful as the bad defense itself.

    I think Parmalee and Plouffe would probably also suck in RF, but there's also the possibility of a full season with 20 HR's there, and Doumit isn't going to offer that. Like him fine as a pinch hitter and emergency fill-in at various positions, but that's about it. With Parmalee the everyday 1B now, we probably should be doing Plouffe, Joe Benson, or some type of platoon in RF.

  13. #53
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    The thing is though, is that you are referencing his minor league OBP like we should expect it to go up from the .310 last year. If he can't hit the ball out of the infield, no major league pitcher is going to throw him anything out of the zone to let him walk at any higher of a rate anyway. He is going to have to hit about 50 points higher on his average for him to make his OBP anything to remotely write home about.

  14. #54
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Since when was Revere a .300 hitter at the ML level?

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by The Greatest Poster Alive View Post
    Exactly. Revere is not a home run hitter, nor does he need to become one. If he hits one this season I'll be pleasantly surprised. But if Revere is going to be a starter, specifically one at a corner outfield spot, he needs to hit the ball to the outfield more. Revere is fun to watch, and you can tell he plays hard every game, but that alone doesn't make you a starter at a position that is typically reserved for your better hitters in the lineup.

    And to be clear, I'm not a huge fan of doumit or plouffe, but their bats represent a significant improvement over revere's at this moment.
    Agree. There are really only two things that a right fielder has to be able to do, and Revere is terrible at both of them - (1) hit for some degree of power/run production and (2) Throw the ball well to cutoff/3rd base. It makes no sense to make Revere an everyday RF at this point in his development. If the "upside" of Revere's career is a Juan Pierre type player - he'll struggle to get everyday play as a LF, let alone in RF.

    These decisions cannot be viewed in a bubble. It's easy to sit here and make judgments out of context about Revere such as "I like his defense". We're talking about right field. People have slammed guys like James Loney and Andre Ethier as not having enough power for their positions, but those are guys capable of hitting around .300 with 15+ HR power (and probably a lot of doubles). Revere hit 5 HR's in 380 minor league games, and you can look at him physically trying to play the game and figure out that's never going to change. He is what he is, and it was a bad reach by the Twins to take a guy like that in the first round.

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by StormJH1 View Post

    When I said all winter that I didn't like the Doumit signing too much, that was under the assumption that Butera was on a "scholarship" and we were carrying 3 catchers for sure. With that not happening (at least for now...could change obviously), it's pretty terrifying to have Doumit catching any time Mauer is getting a break. The double steal yesterday was an example of that. The perception of a bad defensive catcher is almost as harmful as the bad defense itself.
    The double steal wasn't on Doumit at all, it was on the pitcher for not even looking back. The guy was 5 feet from third when Doumit caught the ball. Doumit won't win any gold gloves behind the plate, but he is more then serviceable at C (esp for a back up), he was never really signed to be a RF/1B type guy, he was signed to be the back up C and the primary DH, however with Morneau being moved to DH and the emergence of Parmelee they are trying to mix and match to get his bat in the lineup.

    Ultimately he will be "ok" in RF, below average no doubt but he won't be Delmon out there, and ideally his bat more then makes up for it.

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