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Thread: When the window's open........

  1. #21
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I wonder what the Twins would look like if they let Andrew Friedman, Brian Sabean, John Mozeliak, Dave Dombrowski, Frank Wren, John Daniels or Billy Beane run the organization.
    A number of those options are based off how the team has performed recently. Not far in the past, fans of those clubs were calling for their GMs to be fired. Sabean (2005-2008), Dombrowski (2005, 2008) in specific. It wasn't too long ago that the Twins were the model franchise and receiving praise from the front office on down.

  2. #22
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    I wonder what the Twins would be like if ownership was committed first and foremost to winning, rather than financial security.
    More like the Tigers, except with a better farm system?

  3. #23
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    I wasn't trying to play a game, or take a jab at the front office or any of the posters here. It's clear that people don't agree with what Terry Ryan and the rest are doing, but it's also clear that there are some far-fetched ideas being thrown around. I was just wondering what it would be like if the fans had a say in the organization.

  4. #24
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    I'll try to find middle ground here. There has been a giant failure for two years--players let go that should have been kept, players brought in that don't belong in MLB, and I think the Twins acknowledge this. I was OK with putting a few bandages on in 2012 and they mostly worked, at least among the position players (Willingham, Doumit, and Carroll), but the pitching hasn't been addressed satisfactorily from outside the organization. More later.

  5. #25
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    Our active roster would consist of 9 albatross contracts and 16 19-year-old prospects that we want to develop at the MLB level.
    Only nine albatross contracts? Hell, I can think of a few posters who have advocated more than that by themselves.

  6. #26
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Only nine albatross contracts? Hell, I can think of a few posters who have advocated more than that by themselves.
    Tis true!

    I was thinking there'd be some kind of financial limitations in place and nine would probably get us there. Then for the other 16 spots, we wouldn't consider anyone over 27 who isn't an all-star because they are AAAA filler. We'd definitely want that great prospect on the roster who could benefit next year from MLB time this year because service time (nor proper development) are even anywhere near a concern.

  7. #27
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    A number of those options are based off how the team has performed recently. Not far in the past, fans of those clubs were calling for their GMs to be fired. Sabean (2005-2008), Dombrowski (2005, 2008) in specific. It wasn't too long ago that the Twins were the model franchise and receiving praise from the front office on down.
    Ding ding ding. Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

    Ask Giants fans what they thought of Sabean from 2005-2008.

    Or Tigers fans what they thought of Dombrowski in the early 2000s.

    Or As fans what they thought of Beane in the late 2000s.

    This argument is based on survivorship... Basically, the examination of success stories only at the time they are succeeding.

    Four years ago, the Twins would have been included on that list? Why? Because they were winning. That list is not constructed by philosophy, attitude, or any other metric not called "winning".

    Which is the wrong way to compile a list. Because winning is fleeting for anyone with tenure and a GM you would have considered good at his job three years ago is now bumped off that list because his team stopped winning. Or, in the case of Brian Sabean, that GM was the laughing stock of much of baseball after the Pierzynski trade, had a handful of losing seasons, was considered a failure, and now is on that list due to recent success. Was he an awful GM in 2004 and is now a great one? Unlikely.

  8. #28
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Keep in mind that any of these "big trade splashes" would have meant us trading multiple top prospects back in the day, guys such as Liriano, Morneau, Kubel etc just for a rental.

  9. #29
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    Not all prospect trades are for rentals. And, even if they were, would you trade 4 years of decent/goodness, followed by this mess, for 1 or 2 WS championships? It's not like keeping all those great draft picks in the mid-2000s has led to a great team right now.....

    Not all prospects turn out.....what if they had dealt, say, Joe Benson when he was a good prospect?

    How is TX doing, signing all those FAs and making all those trades? And, before we write off the Jays as "proof" that going for it is a bad idea, we may want to wait until the fall......
    Lighten up Francis....

  10. #30
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    And, before we write off the Jays as "proof" that going for it is a bad idea, we may want to wait until the fall......
    Then use the Brewers. Or the Dodgers. Or any number of teams that have banked everything on 1-2 years and absolutely collapsed because of it.

    The failures are far more common than the success stories.

  11. #31
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Not all prospect trades are for rentals. And, even if they were, would you trade 4 years of decent/goodness, followed by this mess, for 1 or 2 WS championships?
    I would....if that worked. Look back at the last 10-15 years of WS titles and tell me what big trades landed them that title. Truth is, your odds of winning the WS are about the same.

    Most trades are more about getting you into the playoffs, after that it's virtually a crapshoot.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    In fairness, it's hard to slam an opposing view if you don't use extremes to make a point...
    Yeah, because the side that wants a change in philosophy is all-about, and only about, $300M FA contracts and trading away big-time prospects for marginal 2-year FA upgrades.

  13. #33
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I would....if that worked. Look back at the last 10-15 years of WS titles and tell me what big trades landed them that title. Truth is, your odds of winning the WS are about the same.

    Most trades are more about getting you into the playoffs, after that it's virtually a crapshoot.
    This, this, this.

    I hate to be the guy who yells "Scoreboard!" as proof of anything, but it needs to be done in this thread.

    We're not lacking in examples here. Just look at the past 20 years. It's a selective memory that forgets all those teams that pushed their chips to black and watched the ball land on red. They're far more common than those teams that actually won after risking it all.

    Risking it all is a bad bet, particularly on a game that relies so heavily on chance. The best team in history still lost 25% of its games. This isn't the NFL or NBA.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Yeah, because the side that wants a change in philosophy is all-about, and only about, $300M FA contracts and trading away big-time prospects for marginal 2-year FA upgrades.
    exactly.

  15. #35
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    I'm actually fine with how the Jays approached it. They built their farm but couldn't get over the hump, so they made some aggressive moves to turn some prospects into MLBers.

    Similar approach by KC this offseason, but the Jays were probably closer to contention and I liked their moves better.

  16. #36
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    Are you guys arguing that the Twins of the 2000s would not have benefited from getting a real DH in exchange either for money or a prospect?

    The Yankees of 2009, they had guys they traded for.
    Philly in 2008
    2012 Giants had some guys they traded for....
    The Red Sox had guys they traded for

    As a matter of fact, I find it hard to find a team that did not use FA and trades to get WS championships......
    Lighten up Francis....

  17. #37
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    I'm actually fine with how the Jays approached it. They built their farm but couldn't get over the hump, so they made some aggressive moves to turn some prospects into MLBers.

    Similar approach by KC this offseason, but the Jays were probably closer to contention and I liked their moves better.
    The Jays are in a difficult situation that doesn't apply to the Twins. They're in the AL East. They can't let a slow trickle of prospects develop and then build a franchise over a 5-6 year period. They'll never be good enough to compete with the Yankees and Sox, so they choose a season where both the Yankees and Sox look weak and they go for it. I don't fault them for that.

    But the Twins don't have to play by that system. They're in the Central, a division that they can win (and remain dominant) by allowing a slow trickle of prospects to continually feed that well.

    Do it enough times and you will win a ring.

  18. #38
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Are you guys arguing that the Twins of the 2000s would not have benefited from getting a real DH in exchange either for money or a prospect?

    The Yankees of 2009, they had guys they traded for.
    Philly in 2008
    2012 Giants had some guys they traded for....
    The Red Sox had guys they traded for

    As a matter of fact, I find it hard to find a team that did not use FA and trades to get WS championships......
    They did pick up players. Reed, Stewart, and then... mostly crap, really. Maybe I'm forgetting someone. Ryan was too cautious in the second half of the 2000s, IMO.

    I'm not against trading any prospect. I think it's a good idea to occasionally let a B or C prospect go to boost that year's team. Not every season, but it won't kill you if you do it every so often.

    But after posting on Twins forums for the past 14 seasons, there are many people who think it's a good idea to trade someone like Buxton for a run at 2014 (supposing the Twins are in contention in 2014).

    And that's just dumb. And it rarely works out for anyone other than the team receiving the prospect in return for the veteran.

  19. #39
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    In fairness, it's hard to slam an opposing view if you don't use extremes to make a point...
    So you advocate using extreme viewpoints to make your case in any and all circumstances? You know who else held that position, in Germany in the 1930s?

  20. #40
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Are you guys arguing that the Twins of the 2000s would not have benefited from getting a real DH in exchange either for money or a prospect?

    The Yankees of 2009, they had guys they traded for.
    Philly in 2008
    2012 Giants had some guys they traded for....
    The Red Sox had guys they traded for

    As a matter of fact, I find it hard to find a team that did not use FA and trades to get WS championships......
    You're changing your argument. Please list the players. If you just cited Cody freakin Ross to defend your argument (the definition of a lucky fluke that really worked out), it would be more intellectually honest to lay it out there.

    You claimed trades win WS titles - let's see the proof. Here's a hint, we did this back on BYTO a few years ago - you won't find it, but feel free to try.

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