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Thread: Article: The Key for Mike Pelfrey

  1. #21
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    I may be misinterpreting the philosophy, but PTC seems to stress the importance of inducing double plays as a means of working through jams, without taking into account all those times where contact is induced and a double play isn't the result.

    In my opinion, when a runner gets on base, that's the worst time to try to induce contact. I don't care how many outs there are, you should be looking to get strike one over and then your goal should be to strike that batter out.

  2. #22
    Senior Member All-Star
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    Digging a little deeper into the inability to get a strikeout with men on base I found this trend. For his career, Mike Pelfrey has performed much different in low, medium and high leverage situations.

    Low: 221K in 1466 PA = 15.0% K rate
    Medium: 243K in 1971 PA = 12.3% K rate
    High: 77K in 785 PA = 9.8% K rate

    Then trending upward

    Low: 93 BB in 1466 PA = 6.3%
    Medium: 173 BB in 1971 PA= 8.7%
    High: 73 BB in 785 PA = 9.2%

    It should go without saying we would all prefer those numbers to be going the opposite direction. He has a 77/73 K/BB rate in high leverage situations. It seems to me that this is at least a factor in his struggles.

  3. #23
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    In my opinion, when a runner gets on base, that's the worst time to try to induce contact. I don't care how many outs there are, you should be looking to get strike one over and then your goal should be to strike that batter out.
    And that's fine, but the only way to do that is to throw pitches, and when you throw pitches, there is a chance that the ball is put in play, especially with better hitters up. The pitches you strike people out on, are also often the pitches that hitters make some contact with, or they take for a ball.

  4. #24
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Digging a little deeper into the inability to get a strikeout with men on base I found this trend. For his career, Mike Pelfrey has performed much different in low, medium and high leverage situations.

    Low: 221K in 1466 PA = 15.0% K rate
    Medium: 243K in 1971 PA = 12.3% K rate
    High: 77K in 785 PA = 9.8% K rate

    Then trending upward

    Low: 93 BB in 1466 PA = 6.3%
    Medium: 173 BB in 1971 PA= 8.7%
    High: 73 BB in 785 PA = 9.2%

    It should go without saying we would all prefer those numbers to be going the opposite direction. He has a 77/73 K/BB rate in high leverage situations.
    These are certainly numbers we don't want to see...

  5. #25
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    And that's fine, but the only way to do that is to throw pitches, and when you throw pitches, there is a chance that the ball is put in play, especially with better hitters up. The pitches you strike people out on, are also often the pitches that hitters make some contact with, or they take for a ball.
    But that doesn't appear to be the goal. Look at Pelfrey's zone charts with two strikes. There are a lot of meatballs there.
    None of them is a strikeout pitcher but I think the goals are different and so are the results.

    edit: pics in another post
    Last edited by Willihammer; 06-18-2013 at 03:20 PM.

  6. #26
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    But that doesn't appear to be the goal. Look at Pelfrey's zone charts with two strikes. There are a lot of meatballs there.


    That's an ugly chart, but why does Pelfrey only get a sample size of this year vs LHH and the other two get samples since '07 vs both RHH and LHH?

  7. #27
    Twins Moderator All-Star twinsnorth49's Avatar
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    I think the key with Pelfrey is us finding the right team to trade him to at the best price.

  8. #28
    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    Nice writeup Seth. But I have to wonder how much less we'd be straining to find positives if Kyle Gibson had made Mike Pelfrey's last five starts.

  9. #29
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    That's an ugly chart, but why does Pelfrey only get a sample size of this year vs LHH and the other two get samples since '07 vs both RHH and LHH?
    Because I screwed up. The charts vs. both LH and RH for 2013 are as follows:







    Not as stark but there's still a visible difference in approaches I think

  10. #30
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    Quote from nicksaviking
    I don't think it's a lack of effort, it's a lack of ability. However many pitchers with the ability to miss bats do have higher strikeout numbers in high leverage situations, which tells me they in fact can bear down and dial up the heat or make a pitch break a little bit more in a clutch situation.

    There are curretnly 100 qualifying starting pitchers. 55 of them have a K/9 over 7.00, 45 of them have a K/9 of 7.5. So I guess I'd give a satisfactory chance at acquiring a strikeout in high leverage situations to roughly 50% of the pitchers in the league.

    I'd just like to point out that with a 7 K/9 a pitcher is still getting 74% of his outs some other way than a strikeout. As opposed to getting 80% of your outs some other way with a 5 K/9 rate. It is nice to get a strikeout when you need it, but even for guys with strikeout rates at 9 K/9 rates, you get 67% of your outs some other way.


    It may be a more satisfactory chance but it really is not that high a chance.

  11. #31
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Not as stark but there's still a visible difference in approaches I think
    Agreed. Pelfrey - shooting inside, but all over. Buerhle - inside. Norris - inside and low.

    I think it's important to look at how Pelfrey is approaching it this year vs his career norm. Not a huge difference, but he's had too many pitches this year land middle and up. Hopefully his control continues to improve and he can keep the ball down.

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