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View Poll Results: Appel, Gray and Bryant are gone. Your pick is:

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67. You may not vote on this poll
  • Kohl Stewart

    52 77.61%
  • College pitcher

    10 14.93%
  • Reese McGuire

    2 2.99%
  • Someone else

    3 4.48%
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Thread: Poll: Draft Scenario 1

  1. #21
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    It looks like the Astros will take Moran, per multiple sources, so the Twins would really have a choice to make. I assume that either Gray or Appel to the Cubs and Bryant to Colorado, and that leaves one of the 2 "big" college pitchers.

    I'd still take Manaea for the reasons I explained here. If one of the aforementioned pitchers can throw left handed, I'd change my mind
    Manaea might be there for round 2 at the rate he's falling. I don't think I'd take that risk at number 4. If one of Appel/Gray was there, it would be a tough choice between them and Stewart in my opinion. I'd probably take Appel/Gray as the upside is similar but both are closer to the bigs.

  2. #22
    Stewart seems to have the highest upside of anyone outside of the big 3 and fills a need, how do they pass that up? He would seem like a no brainer in this scenario.

  3. #23
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    1.) Stewart
    2.) Ball
    3.) Stanek

    Maybe they can get Manaea in the 2nd round.

  4. #24
    Senior Member MVP
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    Stewart
    stanek
    shipley
    ball

    I want pitching. iMO, they really need pitching, and no hitter is clearly better than any of these pitchers. I will probably avoid the forums for days if they pick McGuire.
    Lighten up Francis....

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    My pick is Trey Ball. Power LHPs are truly rare and have a floor as trade bait or RP. Face it, there just aren't enough LHP with major league arms, "when you get the chance Take IT!"
    HS LHP drafted in round 1 make my knees knock. Matt Garrioch's study showed that they, by far, are the riskiest of the 4 pitching types.

    % that became solid regular MLB pitchers or better:

    RHP LHP
    Coll. 30% 45%
    HS 32% 21%

    On top of that a full 60% of HS LHP drafted in the first round don't make it to the majors in ANY capacity. For the other 3 it is 25%-35%.

    Save me Jeebus!!

  6. #26
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    I am not sure how anyone without "access" can comment on Stewart.

    Do I want him? I want the idea of him - a top line pitcher. But all I have is the same reports everyone else has.

    Have I ever seen him pitch live? No.
    Do I know if he is FB is laser straight or does it move a bit? No.
    Do I know if his offspeed is any good? No.
    Have I sat in his living room to talk about his commitment to A&M? No.

    There should be a choice: The player who twins think is best regardless of position.

    That what I want.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by clutterheart View Post
    I am not sure how anyone without "access" can comment on Stewart.

    Do I want him? I want the idea of him - a top line pitcher. But all I have is the same reports everyone else has.

    Have I ever seen him pitch live? No.
    Do I know if he is FB is laser straight or does it move a bit? No.
    Do I know if his offspeed is any good? No.
    Have I sat in his living room to talk about his commitment to A&M? No.

    There should be a choice: The player who twins think is best regardless of position.

    That what I want.
    I don't know if this helps, doubt it does, but I currently live in Houston and I have seen him live. He went 7 innings, K'd 10, and gave up no ERs. I know nothing about scouting but there were a ton of scouts there when I went. I over heard several say he hit 97 at least once that day. He passed the eye test for me.

    Regarding fastball movement here is what Law had to say: "His fastball is consistently 92-94, touching 97, with good downhill plane and some boring life to his arm side." He gives him 50, average scouting grade, for future and present fastball movement.

    As for his off speed pitch it is considered the worst out of his 4 pitches but it still got a 50 grade by low. Law had this to say about the pitch: "
    He also has a a straight change at 83-85 with solid arm speed but little action."

    I have no idea who has actually gone to talk to Stewart in his living room about his commitment to A&M but I can promise you the Twins will know before they draft him at #4.

    I don't know if you actually wanted someone to answer these or you were being sarcastic. If you did I hope that helps. If you were being sarcastic, I guess I lose the internet. I do agree they should take whomever, regardless of position, is atop their draft board.

  8. #28
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    Would take Stewart is none of the big 3 are there. Would like Appel or Gray if they are there only because of shorter time to the majors

  9. #29
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    Always go BPA available, which I think is Stewart (although Shipley is growing on me). However, if they somehow managed to get McGuire and then they knew that they could get Manaea at 43 and he'd sign, I'd be pretty tempted to do that. But I don't think that would happen and I don't want to lose BPA hoping that it drops that way.

  10. #30
    Senior Member Triple-A InfraRen's Avatar
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    When do we get Mr. Bonnes' take?
    Till I Collapse

  11. #31
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    I'm pretty much good with anything (Which I'm sure surprises many of you).
    So what did you pick in the poll?

  12. #32
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by InfraRen View Post
    When do we get Mr. Bonnes' take?
    I voted Stewart. I'm a BPA guy, and to me, BPA = Stewart. But that might not be the case for the 2nd poll that I'm putting up today....

  13. #33
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    I went with Stewart for this. Seems like he has the highest upside. We have plenty of depth in our farm system right now, I'd rather see them add more high-end quality than gambling on McGuire + ? to add quantity. Essentially all the pitching possibilities bandied about as possibilities leave a bit of concern, so I say go with the one who looks like he has the highest ceiling. Trey Ball is interesting because he's a lefty, but sounds a bit more risky.

    It's funny, I almost wish we weren't picking 4th, cause I really like the possibility of McGuire, a top-end HS catcher hitting our system now would be pretty good timing I would think, we've probably got another 3-4 years of Mauer being the primary catcher, but I just don't think McGuire should be #4.

  14. #34
    Senior Member Double-A Wookiee of the Year's Avatar
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    I actually voted college pitcher, and I would go with Shipley. I like that he's already developed a deceptive change-up; I hear that's usually harder to do than developing a breaking ball, so I'm hopeful that will come.

    Some here are downplaying "closer to the majors" by saying they'll take whoever has more upside, even if they have to wait. To me, the advantage to "closer to the majors" isn't that it comes sooner; it's that by virtue of the fact that it's closer to major league-ready talent, it's more proven and has less room for things to go wrong in development. Closer to the majors = less risk.

    All of that said, if the Twins take Stewart at #4, I trust they made the right decision. If they pass on Stewart at #4, I also trust they made the right decision. I see HS pitching as risky, but I'm no scout; I'm not close enough to Stewart to know if he's worth the risk and/or less risky than it might appear. With the outside knowledge I have, I'd take Shipley, but on whether Stewart is worth the risk of taking a HS pitcher #4, I trust the insiders.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wookiee of the Year View Post
    I actually voted college pitcher, and I would go with Shipley. I like that he's already developed a deceptive change-up; I hear that's usually harder to do than developing a breaking ball, so I'm hopeful that will come.

    Some here are downplaying "closer to the majors" by saying they'll take whoever has more upside, even if they have to wait. To me, the advantage to "closer to the majors" isn't that it comes sooner; it's that by virtue of the fact that it's closer to major league-ready talent, it's more proven and has less room for things to go wrong in development. Closer to the majors = less risk.

    All of that said, if the Twins take Stewart at #4, I trust they made the right decision. If they pass on Stewart at #4, I also trust they made the right decision. I see HS pitching as risky, but I'm no scout; I'm not close enough to Stewart to know if he's worth the risk and/or less risky than it might appear. With the outside knowledge I have, I'd take Shipley, but on whether Stewart is worth the risk of taking a HS pitcher #4, I trust the insiders.
    The recent data coming out shows that there is no difference in risk really between HS and College RHP taken in the 1st round. Now LHP is a different story!

  16. #36
    Senior Member All-Star 70charger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    The recent data coming out shows that there is no difference in risk really between HS and College RHP taken in the 1st round. Now LHP is a different story!
    The "greater risk" of LHP in and of itself makes me skeptical of the usefulness of this study. Unless there's something inherently riskier or more injury-prone in a lefthanded delivery (seems ridiculous), then stats are probably just showing a lot of randomness; i.e. the correlations are not nearly as high as we'd like them to be.

    Given that, it could be that any other category of pitcher is overrepresented or underrepresented with regard to perceived risk. We don't really know, and that's the problem.

  17. #37
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    I'm pretty much good with anything (Which I'm sure surprises many of you).

    I'd be good with Stanek because of how well he's come on, he's advanced, he has been considered a top 10 pick all year.
    i'd be good with Stewart, especially if they believe he'll sign. He may have the best upside.
    I'd be OK (at best) with McGuire and have to trust that he will have enough bat to be a #1 catcher in the big leagues for several years. No one is expecting Mauer, but want something. He's a consensus Top 10 guy too, which means he's pretty good. if they do that, I'll be curious how the savings will affect later picks.

    Frankly, after the Big 3, it's a crapshoot, so get the one that allows most flexibility
    I trust the Twins scouts these days, but I guess I'm hoping that either they concur with Stewart as advertised, or they see something in McGuire and go with the underslot strategy. It'll make things more interesting, and won't it be fun when the board goes ballistic?

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by clutterheart View Post
    I am not sure how anyone without "access" can comment on Stewart.

    Do I want him? I want the idea of him - a top line pitcher. But all I have is the same reports everyone else has.

    Have I ever seen him pitch live? No.
    Do I know if he is FB is laser straight or does it move a bit? No.
    Do I know if his offspeed is any good? No.
    Have I sat in his living room to talk about his commitment to A&M? No.

    There should be a choice: The player who twins think is best regardless of position.

    That what I want.
    Great comment. Berardino's articles on the draft, featuring Twins scout John Wilson and discussions about the Puckett decision and the Trout miss, should be required reading for any one on the board who believes they have a valid opinion about the relative qualifications of prospects.

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by 70charger View Post
    The "greater risk" of LHP in and of itself makes me skeptical of the usefulness of this study. Unless there's something inherently riskier or more injury-prone in a lefthanded delivery (seems ridiculous), then stats are probably just showing a lot of randomness; i.e. the correlations are not nearly as high as we'd like them to be.

    Given that, it could be that any other category of pitcher is overrepresented or underrepresented with regard to perceived risk. We don't really know, and that's the problem.
    The study I'm talking about just looked at what level pitchers ended their careers at (minors, solid regular, all star, all time great). HS LHP were far and away the least successful. I think given the need for LHP it isn't surprising that teams would reach for LHP that probably didn't deserve to go in the first round just because they were left handed.

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