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Thread: Souhan: Free Agent Pitchers Not The Answer

  1. #21
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks View Post
    How can you call the Revere trade solid so far??
    Given that Revere has a .561 OPS, I think it's safe to say that it hasn't panned out for Philly.

  2. #22
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    Free agency isn't the route to long term success.
    Since when is it either/or? You can do both.

  3. #23
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    As much as I like Ryan,and his ability to mine the scrap heap, I do think the game has past him by.
    The Twins should not be where they are right now. To waste a talent like Mauer with these poor pitching staff is almost criminal. This team has amazing amount of flexibility when it comes to money. There is no high priced prospect needing to get paid for at least 4 years. There is no risk of blocking almost any prospect who does not play Outfield. Twins should be dumping good money after bad to keep the team competitive, the fan base interested and try to build something around Mauer.

    Instead Ryan gambled that his low rent style would pay off. Right now his gamble is unraveling.
    Hopefully Gardy can tie it back together but its not looking good right now.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Since when is it either/or? You can do both.
    The problem with doing both is long term commitments can conflict with the arrival of youth. If you are the Yankees, this isn't a problem. Just absorb the salaries and let go of older players that become liabilities. If you are the Twins or most teams, you end up with declining players in the third or later year of their contract with commitments too large to throw them to the side. Teams that do this end up in a cycle of mediocrity. Far better to have a focused plan and direction and go all in towards that goal.

  5. #25
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    Free agency isn't the route to long term success.

    Signing an over 30 guy to a multiyear almost guarantees being stuck with the decline phase of the player.

    One year or even two year guys often are not very good to begin with or are already in decline. Someone has probably done the study, but it sure seems like the majority of last winters bargains are struggling.

    The route to long term success is to develop pitching from within. Adding young pitchers like Meyer, May and even Worley is a step in that direction.
    To me, there is a difference between trying to buy a team or rotation (free agency isn't the route to long-term success) AND bottom feeding in the guys you DO acquire especially when you have a staff that was in as dire of shape as this one was last year.

    They had plenty of money available. They might have had to overpay especially if they wanted someone on a reasonably short deal (e.g. 1-3 years) but a young staff could desperately use some veteran, quality pitching to lead it.

    While I agree that the route to long-term success is developing pitching from within, that should not be a reason to TOTALLY IGNORE acquiring some quality pitching through FA.

  6. #26
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    I don't think that the Twins have THAT MUCH quality pitching in the minors that acquiring a decent FA starter would block them down the road. That assumes that virtually everyone will pan out.

  7. #27
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    The problem with doing both is long term commitments can conflict with the arrival of youth. If you are the Yankees, this isn't a problem. Just absorb the salaries and let go of older players that become liabilities. If you are the Twins or most teams, you end up with declining players in the third or later year of their contract with commitments too large to throw them to the side. Teams that do this end up in a cycle of mediocrity. Far better to have a focused plan and direction and go all in towards that goal.
    If you worry about prospect development with handing out contracts you're making a number of mistakes:

    1) Prospects fail. All the time. Even elite ones. Worry about what they will earn in 6-7 years is nothing more than shooting in the dark. You have no idea and planning for something you can't predict and can't control is a horrible way to make decisions.

    2) Going "all-in" is a popular phrase but rarely works. Most teams that go after that one or two big names to help their team usually have to sacrifice prospects, not money. So then it defeats the very thing you're talking about and only marginally increases your chances.

    You are far better off to add talent at positions of need when you have the resources to do it and let the future chips fall where they may. That doesn't mean you buy an entire rotation or half your roster, but you do go after a few big additions that can supplement what you want your roster to look like.

    Again, St. Louis and Atlanta are OUTSTANDING examples of the right model. Washington too. One, two, or three FA contracts are not going to cripple you if you stagger when you sign them and the value you place on them. Completely omitting one major way of adding talent just seems ludicrious on the face of it.

  8. #28
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    I don't think it would have been wise to commit to any pitcher a large on contract in 2015. The likelihood is too great that they will not be effective or injured in the third year.

    Once it narrows down to the guys willing to sign for one or two years, the player still has to choose to sign with the Twins and pitch in front of their poor defense.

    The Twins have had two successful runs in the last thirty years. In both cases they went very young first 1981-1982 and 1999-2000 and built from there. Look at the cycle from 1993-1998 to see how trying to do both worked out.

    In fact with the signings of old guys like Willingham, Doumit, Carroll and Correia, I would suggest that are trying to be both competitive while rebuilding. They aren't doing it very well. I would prefer they dump and go young.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    If you worry about prospect development with handing out contracts you're making a number of mistakes:

    1) Prospects fail. All the time. Even elite ones. Worry about what they will earn in 6-7 years is nothing more than shooting in the dark. You have no idea and planning for something you can't predict and can't control is a horrible way to make decisions.

    2) Going "all-in" is a popular phrase but rarely works. Most teams that go after that one or two big names to help their team usually have to sacrifice prospects, not money. So then it defeats the very thing you're talking about and only marginally increases your chances.

    You are far better off to add talent at positions of need when you have the resources to do it and let the future chips fall where they may. That doesn't mean you buy an entire rotation or half your roster, but you do go after a few big additions that can supplement what you want your roster to look like.

    Again, St. Louis and Atlanta are OUTSTANDING examples of the right model. Washington too. One, two, or three FA contracts are not going to cripple you if you stagger when you sign them and the value you place on them. Completely omitting one major way of adding talent just seems ludicrious on the face of it.
    St. Louis and Atlanta are not building from 65 win teams and haven't been. They never let their farm system deplete like the Twins prior to 2011.

    Washington did have some very poor years and went young. I found two free agent pitcher signings in that range. They signed Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis. Sounds like the Twins to me.

    They did sign Edwin Jackson and trade for Gio Gonzalez prior to 2012 but they already had a foundation of a .500 team at that point.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    Free agency isn't the route to long term success.

    Signing an over 30 guy to a multiyear almost guarantees being stuck with the decline phase of the player.

    One year or even two year guys often are not very good to begin with or are already in decline. Someone has probably done the study, but it sure seems like the majority of last winters bargains are struggling.

    The route to long term success is to develop pitching from within. Adding young pitchers like Meyer, May and even Worley is a step in that direction.
    I don't think anyone is saying that we should be building through Free Agency.
    It can be used to supplement a roster though.
    If Ryan had the courage to go out and spend on a legit FA starting pitcher to supplement our homegrown talent during his first regime, our playoff record would probably be different, and we might even have a 3rd WS banner hanging.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Given that Revere has a .561 OPS, I think it's safe to say that it hasn't panned out for Philly.
    After 2 months huh?
    It's an incomplete so far for both teams. Nothing more, nothing less.

  12. #32
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Guys willing to sign for one or two years are generally garbage players. Especially pitchers. Now you might find some luck with hitters that way, but far less likely pitchers.

    I would argue our 2000 core would've benefited GREATLY from two well timed FA signings. (A legit middle of the order bat where they had 1B/DH open at times during the run and another very good SP)

  13. #33
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    \Washington did have some very poor years and went young. I found two free agent pitcher signings in that range. They signed Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis. Sounds like the Twins to me.
    How about Jayson Werth? Signing Matt Capps and flipping him into Wilson Ramos?

    They did sign Edwin Jackson and trade for Gio Gonzalez prior to 2012 but they already had a foundation of a .500 team at that point.
    Our foundation is closer than you think. Why not get ahead of the game at MASSIVE areas of need?

    As for Atlanta, they were a 72 win team and then went out and got Vasquez, Derek Lowe, and others to help their team.

    No matter how you shake it, utterly ignoring the FA market is absurd.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    If you worry about prospect development with handing out contracts you're making a number of mistakes:

    1) Prospects fail. All the time. Even elite ones. Worry about what they will earn in 6-7 years is nothing more than shooting in the dark. You have no idea and planning for something you can't predict and can't control is a horrible way to make decisions.

    2) Going "all-in" is a popular phrase but rarely works. Most teams that go after that one or two big names to help their team usually have to sacrifice prospects, not money. So then it defeats the very thing you're talking about and only marginally increases your chances.

    You are far better off to add talent at positions of need when you have the resources to do it and let the future chips fall where they may. That doesn't mean you buy an entire rotation or half your roster, but you do go after a few big additions that can supplement what you want your roster to look like.

    Again, St. Louis and Atlanta are OUTSTANDING examples of the right model. Washington too. One, two, or three FA contracts are not going to cripple you if you stagger when you sign them and the value you place on them. Completely omitting one major way of adding talent just seems ludicrious on the face of it.
    I documented that the Giants were in a similar place as the Twins just a few years ago, they have also done perhaps the best in taking the big picture approach model. They've made a mistake or two on big-name FAs without crippling the franchise in the process. Exactly the opposite of what the Twins have done.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post



    1) Our foundation is closer than you think. Why not get ahead of the game at MASSIVE areas of need?


    2) No matter how you shake it, utterly ignoring the FA market is absurd.
    This! For the life of me, how are these obvious points even debatable?

  16. #36
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I documented that the Giants were in a similar place as the Twins just a few years ago, they have also done perhaps the best in taking the big picture approach model. They've made a mistake or two on big-name FAs without crippling the franchise in the process. Exactly the opposite of what the Twins have done.
    I never thought about the Giants, but you're right. They whiffed with Rowand and others, but it was the right idea.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks View Post
    After 2 months huh?
    It's an incomplete so far for both teams. Nothing more, nothing less.
    These are the same people that pronounced the Angels offseason as a complete flop after the first month of the season. (LA is currently on an 8 game winning streak as their bigger-name players are beginning to produce at rather predictable career rates of production)

    FWIW, after today, Revere for the month of May is now slashing at: .333/.377/.383. That SSS argument means as much in terms of evaluating the trade as what the original poster proffered. IE, nothing.

  18. #38
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    Missed the Jason Werth signing as I looked at pitchers, though I don't think many would say that was a good signing.

    I saw Capps and his 5.96 ERA prior to signing and inexpensive contract. Do you want the Twins to sign more guys like Capps prior to 2010? Is he their best example of who he Twins need to look for in a free agent pitcher? So I guess if only the Twins would sign guys like Hernandez, Marquis and Capps they can return to a competitive team like Washington.

    As for the Braves, do I really need to point out how different their roster was following the 2008 season? Look at all the guys 24-28 on that roster already successful in the majors. If you think the 2012 Twins are a comp to that team, then you are correct... The Twins are closer than I think.

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I never thought about the Giants, but you're right. They whiffed with Rowand and others, but it was the right idea.
    Rowand and Zito at the top of the whiff list, yet 2 World Series to show for their alleged "risky and franchise-crippling" lack of prudence and foresight. Their payrolls essentially match the Twins until very recently, and even now is only in the $130M+ range- a number that could easily be justified is within shooting distance for the Twins "devote 50% of revenues to payroll model" claim- with a full ballpark nightly and the new TV deal.

  20. #40
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    I don't think it would have been wise to commit to any pitcher a large on contract in 2015. The likelihood is too great that they will not be effective or injured in the third year.
    Money isn't an issue for the Twins now, and it won't be an issue in the mid term future.

    The only risk is that the Twins might have a pitcher or two getting paid a lot of money not to pitch. That would have exactly zero impact on the 2015 team. The only impact it would have would be on the Pohlad's bottom line.

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