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Thread: Percent confidence in management

  1. #21
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Yup, the same guy...

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    Yup, the same guy...
    Before I specifically critique anyone from the front office, I'd like to hear how you support the quality of a job that a guy like Antony has done.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    My confidence in:

    Terry Ryan - 99%
    Rob Antony - 99%
    Mike Radcliff - 99%
    Brad Steil - 99%

    Ron Gardenhire - 89% (most of this isn't up to him)

    Here are Ryan's major deicsions this last year:

    Sign Corriea to a two year deal
    Sign Pelfrey
    Refuse to call up Gibson
    Trade for Vance Worely and Trevor May
    Trade for Alex Meyer
    Not sign any position players
    Trade two starting OFers, with no one ready to take their place
    Call up Hicks

    And you have 99% confidence? I know you know the guy, but you can't see any reason to have doubt in him?
    Lighten up Francis....

  4. #24
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    The Twins could still win 88 games with incompetent leadership. They've done it before under Bill Smith no less.
    Yes. By 2016, I'm confident our homegrown talent base will be more than capable of overcoming Gardy's "old-school" ways and TR's debatable free agent acquisitions.

    On the subject of the post, I tend to have more confidence in TR than Gardy for some reason.

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by silverslugger View Post
    I consider 88 wins a successful season. It may or may not get you a division championship depending on the year. It may or may not get you into the playoffs. It got the Twins into the playoffs in '87 and from their we all know the outcome. What percent confident are you in the following management to do their part to get the Twins to 88 wins by the end of the 2016 season?

    Ryan?
    Gardenhire?
    Anderson?

    I'd put my current confidence levels in those people at:

    Ryan 50%
    Gardenhire 20%
    Anderson 10%

    At the end of last season I would've put those confidence levels at:

    Ryan 80%
    Gardenhire 40%
    Anderson 30%

    I've lost alot of confidence over the off-season and the first six weeks of the season.
    I am 100% confident that 100% of the three guys you mention will not be with the Twins at the end of the 2016 season.

  6. #26
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverslugger View Post
    So your confident Gardy and Anderson won't hurt and will most likely help our pitching prospects such as Gibson, Meyer, and May? I wish I had that confidence. I'm much more confident in our minor league hitters fulfilling their promise, especially with Bruno as the batting coach.
    This team won a lot of games last decade, and in my opinion, that was in spite of the coaching staff, not because of it. I'm not a Gardy supporter (though up until recently I've been a bigger fan of Anderson). I don't think Gardy is the right person for the job going forward either... but in answer to this question, regardless of who is managing, I think the 2016 team will have no problems winning 88 games. Your concern regarding Gardenhire/Anderson is quite valid.

  7. #27
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Here are Ryan's major deicsions this last year:

    Sign Corriea to a two year deal
    Sign Pelfrey
    Refuse to call up Gibson
    Trade for Vance Worely and Trevor May
    Trade for Alex Meyer
    Not sign any position players
    Trade two starting OFers, with no one ready to take their place
    Call up Hicks

    And you have 99% confidence? I know you know the guy, but you can't see any reason to have doubt in him?
    Truth be told, these moves all scream 2015 and beyond. You might not like Ryan, but he's clearly looking out longer term. In terms of confidence, I have far more confidence in the front office than I do the field staff. You and I may not like the decision, but regardless of what the PR folks spun it as, this team is clearly taking a rebuilding approach. Why I have confidence in the front office is that they have done a great job restocking the farm system, and in the case of Ryan, he has done this before with success. The concerns I have is how he's going to augment this team come the latter half of this decade. If there's a big hole in the middle infield or on the mound, how does Ryan fill it? Another KC? If so, then that's where my confidence is gone.

  8. #28
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    Here are the picks after Berrios last year:

    Bard, Melotakis, Chargois....and you are confident in the FO ability to draft players? May has all the problems he had last year, when experts said he was not a starter anymore. Worley has been awful. So, Meyer was maybe a good trade. And Buxton was a good pick, and maybe Berrios was a good pick (there are still experts on line saying his stuff is not as great as it appears). So what is so much better about the future than before last year? If it is Buxton, well, they had the 2nd pick in the draft. Any of hte guys taken there or a few picks later look great.....so that's not like some genius move, imo.

    So, what, exactly, makes you feel they are doing a great job rebulding the system this last year?

    Meyer - plus
    Buxton - plus, but any of the picks right after him would be plusses
    May - big question mark
    Berrios - very mixed opinions on line
    Next three picks - not good, or hurt (like they were in college)
    Worley - awful so far

    So, what did the FO really do that makes you so confident about the future also?
    Lighten up Francis....

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    My confidence in:

    Terry Ryan - 99%
    Rob Antony - 99%
    Mike Radcliff - 99%
    Brad Steil - 99%

    Ron Gardenhire - 89% (most of this isn't up to him)
    Seth,

    I appreciate your insight and your certainly closer and more informed when it comes to management than most on this site. I'd like to have confidence levels that high, but it's becoming more and more difficult for me over time. Name me the last starting pitcher developed by this organization who has had a sustained run of success for the Twins? I have very little confidence in this organizations ability to develop pitching at this point.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    This team won a lot of games last decade, and in my opinion, that was in spite of the coaching staff, not because of it. I'm not a Gardy supporter (though up until recently I've been a bigger fan of Anderson). I don't think Gardy is the right person for the job going forward either... but in answer to this question, regardless of who is managing, I think the 2016 team will have no problems winning 88 games. Your concern regarding Gardenhire/Anderson is quite valid.
    I like your confidence in the 2016 team, but wonder if it isn't a bit misguided. Alot of decisions will have to be made between now and then to fill out a successful 25 man roster. Also, the reality is, most teams rely on more like 3--35 players to get through a season. I'm not certain I see this organization making the right decisions to round out the roster over the next 4 years.

  11. #31
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    I would go 10- 70- 20.

  12. #32
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverslugger View Post
    I like your confidence in the 2016 team, but wonder if it isn't a bit misguided. Alot of decisions will have to be made between now and then to fill out a successful 25 man roster. Also, the reality is, most teams rely on more like 3--35 players to get through a season. I'm not certain I see this organization making the right decisions to round out the roster over the next 4 years.
    As I said previously the rounding out is what concerns me, but the 2016 team has a lot of potential to have stars/above average guys in most postions, with most having some ML experience to go with it.

    C - Mauer/Pinto
    1B - Mauer/?????
    2B- Rosario
    SS- ???
    3B - Sano
    LF - Hicks
    CF - Buxton
    RF - Arcia
    SP - Meyer
    SP - Stewart/Appel/Gray
    SP - Gibson

    My point is that there's pretty good reason to think we will have above average production from all of those spots and star level production from some of them, with the biggest potential drawback being injury (especially to the pitchers). But if these guys are healthy, and their development continues to progress as it has, then plugging average or even worse production into those other spots will still amount to a winning team.

    And that assumes that guys like Parmalee/Plouffe/May/Benson/Walker/Vargas/Santana/Berios/Darnell/Banxendale don't develop into something that can contribute as well. All of those guys have good reason for people to be skeptical, but they could still easily pan out into something useful.

  13. #33
    Senior Member All-Star James's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Here are the picks after Berrios last year:

    Bard, Melotakis, Chargois....and you are confident in the FO ability to draft players? May has all the problems he had last year, when experts said he was not a starter anymore. Worley has been awful. So, Meyer was maybe a good trade. And Buxton was a good pick, and maybe Berrios was a good pick (there are still experts on line saying his stuff is not as great as it appears). So what is so much better about the future than before last year? If it is Buxton, well, they had the 2nd pick in the draft. Any of hte guys taken there or a few picks later look great.....so that's not like some genius move, imo.

    So, what, exactly, makes you feel they are doing a great job rebulding the system this last year?

    Meyer - plus
    Buxton - plus, but any of the picks right after him would be plusses
    May - big question mark
    Berrios - very mixed opinions on line
    Next three picks - not good, or hurt (like they were in college)
    Worley - awful so far

    So, what did the FO really do that makes you so confident about the future also?
    That is a convenient place to stop to make you're point, but doesn't really represent what we've gotten out of the 2012 draft so far. The next three picks (starting with round 3): Adam Walker, Zach Jones and Tyler Duffy.

    So, in actuality, of the first 8 picks of last years draft, 5 have started off the season well.

    It's still too early to really know what we got from last year's draft, but I don't think it's as obviously bad as you're trying to make it out to be.

    And you're also excluding the signing of international prospects Minier and Thorpe.

    I'm not sure how well all of Ryan's rebuilding efforts will go, but I think he's adding a lot of talent.
    You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.

  14. #34
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    talent is normally added in a draft...this is nothing new...it happens with every team every year.

    It's also not news the GM has little to do with the draft.

  15. #35
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    We are just going to disagree on this one, I think. No biggie, at this point we are both doing projections that are years out......
    Lighten up Francis....

  16. #36
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    Golly, who knew 2013 would be a rebuilding year--I sure didn't.

  17. #37
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    The question wasn't about 2013. I said 73 wins all along would be optimistic, even for me. But I do like the direction. I do have confidence in Ryan. I don't know that Gardy's going to get a chance to keep going, and I have mixed thoughts on that. I don't really know what Anderson could do with what he's been given, though I've never thought he was as good as he was given credit.

    The question about about 88 wins by 2016, and I'll choose to be optimistic on that one. I do think good things are happening in the system. I'm not naive enoguh to think that everyone will pan out, but I'll take my chances.

  18. #38
    Senior Member All-Star James's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    We are just going to disagree on this one, I think. No biggie, at this point we are both doing projections that are years out......
    We are very much projecting.
    You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.

  19. #39
    Head Moderator MVP glunn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverslugger View Post
    Seth,

    I appreciate your insight and your certainly closer and more informed when it comes to management than most on this site. I'd like to have confidence levels that high, but it's becoming more and more difficult for me over time. Name me the last starting pitcher developed by this organization who has had a sustained run of success for the Twins? I have very little confidence in this organizations ability to develop pitching at this point.
    I have the same concern. I am not sure who is to blame, but I would love to hear Seth's take on this.

  20. #40
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Those kind of confidence levels defy the results if nothing else.

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