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Thread: Draft Question: Who would disappoint you at #4?

  1. #41
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    Underslot only works if there is a guy in round 2 to sign, and they succeed in signing him. What are the odd of that working? 20%? 40%? I just think it is too risky to pass on potentially elite talent, get a lesser talent, and MAYBE sign another less talent....and how much better is that player you take in round 2, than the guy you would have taken anyway?

    If you could get Moran and Manaea, would you rather have that, or Bryant/Stewart?
    Lighten up Francis....

  2. #42
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Underslot only works if there is a guy in round 2 to sign, and they succeed in signing him. What are the odd of that working? 20%? 40%? I just think it is too risky to pass on potentially elite talent, get a lesser talent, and MAYBE sign another less talent....and how much better is that player you take in round 2, than the guy you would have taken anyway?

    If you could get Moran and Manaea, would you rather have that, or Bryant/Stewart?
    I agree with you completely about not passing on talent, but we don't see a guy who is clearly superior on talent for #4...

    No one wants them to reach, but if it's a coin flip and one guy is willing to take less... why not? Even if it's only 20-40% chance of paying off like you're saying.

  3. #43
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    With Manaea's injury AND if, big if, Stewart tells teams not to take him the Twins will be put in a rough spot. That leaves Frazier (who they have been heavily linked to), Moran (gross), and Meadows. Just a bad year for the Twins to have the #4 pick.

  4. #44
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    I don't think it is a bad year to have a top pick. ESPN had a story today redoing the 2003 draft and had a link to a 2002 redo. To tell you the truth, the picks are hilarious. In both drafts, the top 5's were filled with guys who never made the bigs. I feel it is less about WHO you draft, and more about WHO drafts them. The Twins do a great job of developing high school hitters, so why not go with what you know you can have success at?

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    I don't think it is a bad year to have a top pick. ESPN had a story today redoing the 2003 draft and had a link to a 2002 redo. To tell you the truth, the picks are hilarious. In both drafts, the top 5's were filled with guys who never made the bigs. I feel it is less about WHO you draft, and more about WHO drafts them. The Twins do a great job of developing high school hitters, so why not go with what you know you can have success at?
    That's a fair point.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    With Manaea's injury AND if, big if, Stewart tells teams not to take him the Twins will be put in a rough spot. That leaves Frazier (who they have been heavily linked to), Moran (gross), and Meadows. Just a bad year for the Twins to have the #4 pick.
    It seems like Meadows & Frazier have slipped a little lately. After the top three, the only other player who seems like a high impact, top line prospect is Stewart. The Twins could certainly use a power arm.

    I say take Stewart...if he doesn't sign they get the #5 pick next year & that seems better than Moran, Frazier or Meadows.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    I don't think it is a bad year to have a top pick. ESPN had a story today redoing the 2003 draft and had a link to a 2002 redo. To tell you the truth, the picks are hilarious. In both drafts, the top 5's were filled with guys who never made the bigs. I feel it is less about WHO you draft, and more about WHO drafts them. The Twins do a great job of developing high school hitters, so why not go with what you know you can have success at?
    Great point. These were both interesting reads and clear indicators why you don't "punt" picks.

  8. #48
    If we don't get one of Appel, Gray, Bryant, or Stewart I will be extremely disappointed. I don't like all of this talk about going for Shipley or McGuire to sign them under-slot.

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    I don't think it is a bad year to have a top pick. ESPN had a story today redoing the 2003 draft and had a link to a 2002 redo. To tell you the truth, the picks are hilarious. In both drafts, the top 5's were filled with guys who never made the bigs. I feel it is less about WHO you draft, and more about WHO drafts them. The Twins do a great job of developing high school hitters, so why not go with what you know you can have success at?
    It is an interesting point, and I don't disagree, but I think the consensus isn't that it's a bad year to have a top pick, just that it's a bad year to have top pick just outside of the top 3.

    Personally, I'd be disappointed if they picked up McGuire. I'm aboard the Stewart train too.

  10. #50
    Senior Member Triple-A InfraRen's Avatar
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    McGuire
    Till I Collapse

  11. #51
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    Filling a Blackhole

    I have no problem taking our future catcher at #4. Maybe it's just me, but it seems 50% of all top pitching prospects are injured, and the other 50% are just waiting their turn. I would always take a position player this high in the draft.

  12. #52
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    Any of the OFers would really bother me. Stewart concerns me--unless he convinces me that a MLB career is his passion and that FB was just a HS fancy. A kid who struggles the least bit might start listening to "feelers" from FB coaches. Those type of distractions might derail a BB career.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    Any of the OFers would really bother me. Stewart concerns me--unless he convinces me that a MLB career is his passion and that FB was just a HS fancy. A kid who struggles the least bit might start listening to "feelers" from FB coaches. Those type of distractions might derail a BB career.
    So who doesn't concern you?

    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    I have no problem taking our future catcher at #4. Maybe it's just me, but it seems 50% of all top pitching prospects are injured, and the other 50% are just waiting their turn. I would always take a position player this high in the draft.
    I find it ironic that you would avoid a starter early in the draft because of risk but support the choice of a HS catcher.

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