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Thread: Draft Question: Who would disappoint you at #4?

  1. #21
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    Reese Mcguire would really make me mad.

    Bryant, Appel, Gray, Stewart and if Manaea finishes strong would all be good picks. We need pitchers, you cant be an elite team if you dont have a strong roto.

    I keep hearing the Twins are gonna take Stewart.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dance with Disco Dan View Post
    Unlike a lot of posters, I am out on Manaea as a top-5 pick. I think both his peripherals and results have been underwhelming this season. So I'd be disappointed if the Twins take him or Meadows (has a great-talent/doesn't-love-the-game guy ever worked out?) I'd also probably be disappointed with the McGuire scenario primarily because I just don't know enough about the prospects outside the first round that they'd presumably spend the saved bonus pool money on.

    I am riding the Stewart train if the first three go as expected.
    I'm right there with you. Stewart already has two 65+ grade pitches. How many HS kids can say that?

    While I'm leading the anti-Manaea bandwagon I don't know how I feel if the Twins took him. I don't think I would be disappointed but I would want to know what the Twins saw. More I look at his stuff, even the Cape cod level stuff, the less I like him.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    I'm right there with you. Stewart already has two 65+ grade pitches. How many HS kids can say that?

    While I'm leading the anti-Manaea bandwagon I don't know how I feel if the Twins took him. I don't think I would be disappointed but I would want to know what the Twins saw. More I look at his stuff, even the Cape cod level stuff, the less I like him.
    That about sums up what I have been thinking, Stewart has just as much potential if not more than Gray and Appel.

  4. #24
    McGuire would be the biggest reach of those 9, I wouldn't be happy at all if the Twins selected him. It would reek of their tight fisted approach of years past, I just don't know how they would sell that to the fanbase.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Einstein View Post
    McGuire would be the biggest reach of those 9, I wouldn't be happy at all if the Twins selected him. It would reek of their tight fisted approach of years past, I just don't know how they would sell that to the fanbase.
    I am almost 100% sure they wont do that. They have dumped a ton of salary the last couple years (which was all of our good vets like Cuddyer, Kubel, Span....) in order to start rebuilding the team through the draft. They wouldnt scrap 3 seasons if they werent gonna take the best possible players in order to be a good team again. So far they have done that so I dont see them stopping.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I am pretty sure some of us* would rip Ryan for being more concerned about budgets than getting elite talent here.

    *by some of us, I'm pretty sure I would.
    I am pretty sure that some would rip Ryan regardless of what he does. Couldn't resist. Elite talent is hard to come by. Mediocre is easy to find..

  7. #27
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    My mock:

    Appel
    Gray
    Bryant
    Manaea
    Who cares

    If they pass on Manaea, I will be very put out.
    I admit that my draft research has been very limited due to my schedule lately but isn't Manaea throwing 4-5 mph slower than he was last year? Why are so many people still high on him?

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I admit that my draft research has been very limited due to my schedule lately but isn't Manaea throwing 4-5 mph slower than he was last year? Why are so many people still high on him?
    Yeah, even last week when he was throwing better, I saw twitter reports that he was only 90-91 in the first and down to 88-90 in the second. Still putting up great numbers, but against weak competition.

    I think people still look at what he did at the Cape and hope he can recapture that "stuff" with better coaching, even though he never had that kind of velo before or after that summer. With the fourth pick we're in a wierd spot because of the drop off after the big three prospects. Anyone we take will have some risk, whether it's Manaea, Shipley, or a HS player.

  9. #29
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    I will be thrilled if Appel, Gray or Bryant fall to the Twins.

    Stewart is my current choice at #4.

    I will be waiting in the 'I told you so' section if they pick Manaea. It could work and the Twins need pitching but he hasn't done well this spring and there are red flags all over Manaea currently.

    Shipley is growing on me so I could understand this pick.

    Meadows doesn't interest me a lot. he's not a standout even in a weak draft class and the Twins have a lot of toolsy OF'ers.

    Frazier would not be horrible. He is an OF'er but he has legit power which is a weakness of the farm system.

    The Twins better be projecting more power from Moran and he better stay at 3B if picked. not a fan of this pick.

    HS catchers.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I will be thrilled if Appel, Gray or Bryant fall to the Twins.

    Stewart is my current choice at #4.

    I will be waiting in the 'I told you so' section if they pick Manaea. It could work and the Twins need pitching but he hasn't done well this spring and there are red flags all over Manaea currently.

    Shipley is growing on me so I could understand this pick.

    Meadows doesn't interest me a lot. he's not a standout even in a weak draft class and the Twins have a lot of toolsy OF'ers.

    Frazier would not be horrible. He is an OF'er but he has legit power which is a weakness of the farm system.

    The Twins better be projecting more power from Moran and he better stay at 3B if picked. not a fan of this pick.

    HS catchers.
    I agree with most of this although I think the Twins actually have some solid power prospects. Sano, obviously, is the #1 power prospect in baseball right now but Walker and Harrison both have some real pop, too. Arcia, is, at least for a few more weeks, a prospect and he has nice power. And even guys like Rosario and Goodrum look to have some pop for a MIer.

    Right now I'd be ok (assuming the first three is Gray, Appel and Bryant) with either Stewart or Shipley.

  11. #31
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    Anyone but Appel, Gray, Bryant, Frazier, Stewart. Manaea is exactly the guy they would have picked in the past, we've all seen how that's worked out. He may fall out of the first if there is any substantial injury after today.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3rd Inning Stretch View Post
    Manaea is exactly the guy they would have picked in the past, we've all seen how that's worked out.
    Is Manaea a toolsy OF? :-)

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3rd Inning Stretch View Post
    Manaea is exactly the guy they would have picked in the past, we've all seen how that's worked out.
    Care to elaborate?

  14. #34
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    The top 3 seem to be pretty well set for everyone. Beyond that, you seem to see 4-6 names tossed around with no clear indications of superior talent within that band.

    Of course we don't want the Twins to reach for a less talented player to save some money, but would it be such a bad strategy if one of the players in that band was willing to swing a deal to go #4 and load up on extra slot money for later picks? I'm afraid fans are going to overreact to this scenario if it happens.

  15. #35
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    I am all in on two guys (assuming Appel, Gray and Bryant are gone)...Stewart and Frazier. Please no to the HS catchers at #4. Going under slot for a guy like Shipley or another high upside arm is tolerable, but the bust rate in HS catchers is far too great.

    So to answer the OPs question: McGuire

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    The top 3 seem to be pretty well set for everyone. Beyond that, you seem to see 4-6 names tossed around with no clear indications of superior talent within that band.

    Of course we don't want the Twins to reach for a less talented player to save some money, but would it be such a bad strategy if one of the players in that band was willing to swing a deal to go #4 and load up on extra slot money for later picks? I'm afraid fans are going to overreact to this scenario if it happens.
    The problem is that underslot pick appears to be a HS catcher which looks to be in the next tier of talent. Considering the Twins pitching need I think Stewart is almost a lock to be picked but Shipley is growing on me.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    The problem is that underslot pick appears to be a HS catcher which looks to be in the next tier of talent. Considering the Twins pitching need I think Stewart is almost a lock to be picked but Shipley is growing on me.
    Some rumors don't make it a reality. You'd be okay with an underslot deal if Shipley were the pick?

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Care to elaborate?
    Sure...perhaps I'm mistaken, but he was a low 90's pitcher until Cape Cod last summer. Then spiked up to 95, then was back down this year. People were wondering about his "decrease" in velocity, but I think the bigger question is about the "increase" last summer that is the bigger concern. Picking 4th overall, I dont think you go for a small school guy expected to be a low 90's fastball that cannot go and dominate hitters and may be a #3 guy at best (my opinion...). Maybe later in the first round or later rounds, but not 4th overall. Appel and Gray can be those dominating guys, Stewart could be as well (with signability concerns there), I just dont see Manaea as one of those guys. He's not the classic pitch to contact guy, but not more on that end if the velocity is not there, which is where I was going with when I compared him to guys we have drafted prior, and not like the guys we have looked to pick up one way or another recently in May, Meyer, and Berrios.

  19. #39
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    My point is it seems like a lot of folks would rip an underslot deal no matter what because of the Twins' reputation of being cheap. In reality, it'd be just fine for the right player. So, where's the floor of who would be okay for a deal like that?

    For me, (outside of the top 3) that floor contains Stewart, Shipley, and Frazier with Meadows, Moran, and Manaea as borderline.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    Some rumors don't make it a reality. You'd be okay with an underslot deal if Shipley were the pick?
    Shipley is like a survivor on my draft list. Manaea has been dropping. Meadows (and Frazier to a lesser extent) have been dropping. Moran hasn't really impressed me. At this point Shipley is probably my #5 in this draft.

    closer to the top of my list - check
    position of need - check
    okay - check

    I hope that this saves at least 500K but there could also be an argument that Shipley is better than Stewart. The Twins could certainly think this way.

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