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Thread: Business of Baseball: Gibson, Hicks, Arcia

  1. #1
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Business of Baseball: Gibson, Hicks, Arcia

    In spring training, there was a ton of talk about service time as it related to Aaron Hicks and if he should be on the Opening Day roster. As was discussed, there were some key dates/timelines.

    1.) For a player not to be a free agent for an extra season,- 20 days
    2.) For a player not to be a Super-2 arbitration candidate - sometime around June 5th maybe.

    So, here is the update:

    Aaron Hicks - would need 20 days to retain him for an extra season.
    Oswaldo Arcia - would need 5 days to retain him for an extra season.
    Kyle Gibson - would need about 2 more weeks in AAA to not be a Super-2 guy.

    I know the Twins are talking about the right things, but they were never going to compete in 2013, so it makes more sense to me to be smart and keep guys around longer term when they're a little better.

    I enjoy watching Hicks and Arcia. I can't wait to see Gibson debut. But I'm a Twins fan through and through and will be for the long term, and I want to see them better longer. That's why I'd be completely fine with Hicks spending 3 weeks (or two months) in AAA as I believe it is better for him long-term as well as for the Twins. I'm comfortable with Arcia going down for a week. And, although I think Gibson will debut in like 10 days at home against the Brewers, I would be fine with waiting two more weeks.

    I know many disagree, but in a year where the Twins won't compete, a couple of weeks is not going to make a difference.

  2. #2
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    So much for "money not being an issue" for this team. Who cares if they are ever fun to watch in the present, as long as they plan for the future (which never comes, as Torii and Johann reminded us). so, ya, I disagree. This team is flooded with money, with almost no future committments at all, actually, none other than Mauer. And people are worried about money.....Gibson is 25, if Super two is an issue, who cares? The team will be Mauer and 24 minimum wage guys, how is this even an issue, for a team that cares about winning?
    Lighten up Francis....

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    would be different if the 2 outfielders were playing like Harper or Trout.
    Waldo is hitting ok , but reminds me of a faster Willingham in the field , as for Mr. Hicks
    he should get some time in AAA with a callup in september , if he goes down and works at his craft...

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    To be fair, Mike, the Twins did call up Hicks and Arcia without "money" being the issue. I believe they should have waited. The Twins didn't wait.

    Gibson? He's 25, but he's still developing. He would have been up two years ago, but he had a little thing called Tommy John surgery. Like I said, I expect him to replace Hernandez in the rotation one of the next two starts. I would prefer they wait one more start beyond that, but I sense that the Twins will call him up sooner, not worrying about the Super-2 thing.

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    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    I thought I heard that the Super 2 arb deadline was now much later in the year, like sometime in July. I believe Gibson would need to stay in the minors much longer than two weeks to reach it. I could be wrong.

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
    I thought I heard that the Super 2 arb deadline was now much later in the year, like sometime in July. I believe Gibson would need to stay in the minors much longer than two weeks to reach it. I could be wrong.
    I hadn't heard that. Last year it was early June still... but I'm not sure.

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    I agree, Seth, they did not care about money (assuming bringing them up was about ability, not about bringing on minimum wage guys instead of vets, which I believe it was about ability) with the OFers, and I'm hoping they do that with Gibson. He's the best pitcher in their entire system, maybe not at the MLB yet, but soon. And he's certainly better than Hernandez, and likely Pelfrey, and probably Diamond and Worley too eventually. And yet, he sits in AAA, leading me to wonder at the Twins' motivation here.

    It would be a lot easier to believe it wasn't about money if they made a move before it mattered.....otherwise there will always be doubt among those of us that believe Ryan cares more about money than winning*

    *and no, I have never said they should spend so much they lose money, never....
    Lighten up Francis....

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    I'I would imagine since it's based on a curve, the Twins early promotions of Hicks and Arcia would actually help the Twins in that it would tilt the deadline a little earlier.

    These situations are different though. I could care less if Gibson gets another arbitration year. On the other hand, I DON'T want to lose a year of Hicks and Arcia. Why does it seem this team bungles every situation lately?

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    I think they are being unfair to Gibson. He's done everything they asked, including waiting 3 months to have TJ surgery. He's already 25 so a lot of his ML earnings power is already gone. Even if they brought him up now, he won't be a free agent until after his age 31 season so he might get one shot at a free agency lotto. Considering he's easily one of our 5 best starters and the team doesn't have major payroll commitments going forward, I think the Twins owe it to him and the fans to bring him up now, esp since they plan on only having him make 14 or so more starts this year.

    As for Hicks and Arcia, I think the Twins have been fair to both and both could do well with some seasoning in AAA so if they decide to do that (and maybe give Benson a shot to grab a 4th OFer position), I'd be ok with that.

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    Would it be unreasonable for the Twins to bring Gibson up for Hernandez's next start and if things go well, option him back to AAA when he hits his inning cap for the season? Maybe mid August?

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    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    I am not clear on Arica. He was a fairly early option in March--does it matter if he's optioned early before the teams start playing regulation games? On Hicks, I think the Twins need to first do what is right for the player. If his development could be increased by sending him to AAA, batting leadoff without the pressure of doing that as a big-league rookie, they should do it and save a year from free agency. On Gibson, I'll say it is only money. As Nick noted, there was a change that makes more 2+ guys eligible for arbitration. Gibson won't be eligible to be a Free Agent until he's well past 30, so the only bone of contention is arbitration. I'm pretty much with Seth on the outfielders, but let Gibson get his feet wet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    I know many disagree, but in a year where the Twins won't compete, a couple of weeks is not going to make a difference.
    But by the same token, those couple weeks aren't going to make much of a difference in the future either. If these guys are any good at all, they're almost certain to sign multi-year deals covering those seasons anyway. When was the last time the Twins went year-to-year with a guy like this?

    (And a player's salary in his last year of arbitration isn't likely to be much different than his annual salary in free agency. Heck, going year-to-year in search of savings through arbitration might cost you MORE if the player has a fluke performance spike.)

    Moreover, any potential contract lengthening or cost savings correlate with player quality. Judging by what we have seen thus far, Hicks might be fortunate to still be a MLB regular by the time he hits free agency -- his service time should be the least of our concerns right now.

    Arcia has obviously looked a lot better (on one side of the ball), and Gibson has promise, but I think people are forgetting that neither one of those guys ever projected to be a superstar. I think Kubel and Radke are better comps, and those guys just don't offer a lot of service time savings opportunities.

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    This thread is more evidence that no matter what the Twins front office does it will be criticized. If they call up young guys it is either too early or they are cheap because they didn't sign a veteran. If they don't call someone up they are cheap because they don't want to start the clock. Or you could take the position of judging each move individually while making sure to point out that the decision of the front office is the wrong one.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    Would it be unreasonable for the Twins to bring Gibson up for Hernandez's next start and if things go well, option him back to AAA when he hits his inning cap for the season? Maybe mid August?
    Yes. That would be a huge issue with the union and is generally an unethical move.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    Would it be unreasonable for the Twins to bring Gibson up for Hernandez's next start and if things go well, option him back to AAA when he hits his inning cap for the season? Maybe mid August?
    Interesting idea. Don't know if I've seen that before, a demotion without any pretense of performance tied to it. Don't think it would fly -- best case, you get a grievance and piss the player off. Worst case, you get all that plus he's awarded full service time anyway as a result of the grievance.

    I seem to recall that the Cubs demoted Steve Trachsel in 1994 just before the strike:

    Trachsel Sent To Minors - Chicago Tribune

    Not sure exactly what happened, but as best as I can tell, he got full service time credit that year.

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    I wonder what Gardenhire, who is allegedly managing for his job this season, thinks of the Twins keeping Gibson at AAA in order to potentially save a couple million dollars a few years down the road.

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    I don't know why anyone would criticize the FO...I mean clearly this year's rotation has been substantially improved as promised.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drjim View Post
    This thread is more evidence that no matter what the Twins front office does it will be criticized. If they call up young guys it is either too early or they are cheap because they didn't sign a veteran.
    There is usually some middle ground in these kinds of decisions. The Twins just don't typically land in it. There probably would have been little reaction had the Twins called Hicks, Arcia and Gibson up before the Super 2 cut off but after the service time exemption.

    Likewise, fans likely would not have gotten upset had they not persued Grinke had they gone after Dempster, Haren or Jackson instead of the bottom of the barrell options the team chose.

    We also likely would not be upset if the Twins gave players two days to test out an injury before putting them on the DL instead of waiting a week and playing with a 24-man-roster during that time.

    Similarly they have almost no ability to find pitchers who can manage an acceptable K% and BB%, they seem to always find guys who are very good at one while terrible at the other.

    So perhaps if this team started operating within an accepted margin of error, we would be more forgiving.

  19. #19
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    Gibson has not pitched well enough to deserve a promotion until the last week or so. His first complete game was against the worst hitting team in all of the minors (and possibly some college teams). This last game was the real deal. But if he comes out with a clunker on Thursday, he does not warrant a call up. All these people talking about saving money is redonk. Why even cheer for the Twins, move to New York, buy some pinstripes, and spend 500 dollars for an upper deck ticket if you want your team to spend 800 million dollars/year. They are not doing a disservice to Gibby by keeping him down, they are doing what is best for the team and him.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    In spring training, there was a ton of talk about service time as it related to Aaron Hicks and if he should be on the Opening Day roster. As was discussed, there were some key dates/timelines.

    1.) For a player not to be a free agent for an extra season,- 20 days
    2.) For a player not to be a Super-2 arbitration candidate - sometime around June 5th maybe.

    So, here is the update:

    Aaron Hicks - would need 20 days to retain him for an extra season.
    Oswaldo Arcia - would need 5 days to retain him for an extra season.
    Kyle Gibson - would need about 2 more weeks in AAA to not be a Super-2 guy.

    I know the Twins are talking about the right things, but they were never going to compete in 2013, so it makes more sense to me to be smart and keep guys around longer term when they're a little better.

    I enjoy watching Hicks and Arcia. I can't wait to see Gibson debut. But I'm a Twins fan through and through and will be for the long term, and I want to see them better longer. That's why I'd be completely fine with Hicks spending 3 weeks (or two months) in AAA as I believe it is better for him long-term as well as for the Twins. I'm comfortable with Arcia going down for a week. And, although I think Gibson will debut in like 10 days at home against the Brewers, I would be fine with waiting two more weeks.

    I know many disagree, but in a year where the Twins won't compete, a couple of weeks is not going to make a difference.
    I agree 100%, this is one of those seasons that you just want to finish and move on to next year.
    Last edited by Brodin4Calder; 05-20-2013 at 12:54 PM.

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