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Thread: First quarter over...on pace for 89 losses

  1. #21
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Twins Twerp's Avatar
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    More of a crapshoot than other major sports. I am not saying its even less than a 50 percent chance you get you get a star. But in baseball a pitcher can blow out his elbow and not make the majors; a position player is 3 to 4 years away from the bigs. Alot can go wrong is what im trying to say. The royals tried this losing for winning thing and it has been iffy at best.

    With basebal you just do not know how a kid will handle the grind of playing every day...mentally or physically.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    It's inexplicable, but teams often seem to get a spark once the high salary vets get traded and the manager gets canned.
    Thanks for lightening our heavy load with a levity-break, Nick!

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    ...different manager...
    Ha, couldn't have said it better myself. Well not faster anyhow.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
    Various reasons. Better pitchers plugged into the rotation, Hicks/Arcia hopefully settling in a bit more, etc.
    So the minimum wage SPs have to come to the rescue yet again? What was all that offseason movement and acquisition flurry all about again?

    I think it's reasonable to project that Arcia and Hicks will have decent 2nd halfs, Plouffe might also have a dominating stretch or two that the Twins can climb on his back with. But- you also have to offset the likelihood of big holes in the lineup once the salary-dumping begins in earnest, as a result of that likelihood, I think you'll be lucky with a net-net wash on the position side of things.

    So it will all come back to pitching- a shuddering prospect to contemplate yet again- you may as well call up Gibson at his Arb-Free date, let him get his remaining available innings, as well as the cast of suspect SPs for their various curtain calls and pitch-to-uncertainties, and finally, Meyer and May for 10 or so starts in August and September.
    Last edited by jokin; 05-19-2013 at 11:50 PM.

  5. #25
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Four types of players that the Twins need to make decisions on in the remaining three quarters of the season: 1) Veterans--keep and pay them, or trade them? This would include the oft mentioned Morneau, Doumit, Willingham, Carroll, Burton and Perkins. 2) Young non-rookies--should they be penciled in for the forseeable future or discarded? This is Dozier, Plouffe, Parmelee, Florimon, Escobar, and Pedro Hernandez. 3) Talented rookies--what is best for their development? Major league time, staying in the lineup/rotation through their struggles or triple A time in Rochester? That would be Hicks, Arcia, and Gibson. 4) Finally, minor-league producers without star projection. Do these guys have enough talent to help a rebuilding big league club on the rise? This would include A Richardson, Colabello, Deduno, Walters, Albers, De Vries and Pinto.

  6. #26
    Super Moderator All-Star ChiTownTwinsFan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    ...different manager...
    Not that I don't agree, but will the Twins do it? I just don't think they will.

  7. #27
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    You never punt on a season?
    Didnt we do that when they brought back
    Terry Ryan and Ronnie?

  8. #28
    Super Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownTwinsFan View Post
    Not that I don't agree, but will the Twins do it? I just don't think they will.
    I don't actually think they will either. But just cause you ain't gettin' a pony for Christmas don't mean you can't wish for one!

  9. #29
    Super Moderator All-Star ChiTownTwinsFan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    I don't actually think they will either. But just cause you ain't gettin' a pony for Christmas don't mean you can't wish for one!
    Settin' yourself up for some big hurt, aren't you? heh. Okay ... worse would be ... let's say they do get rid of Gardy ... and then give the job to .... <wait for it> ....





    Ulger!

    imo, that would be worse. But if they actually do fire Gardy, I'd hope it's a sign they have more sense than that.

  10. #30
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Of course the Twins have been known to frequently draft the guys they know they can sign below slot over TBA. Buxton was a nice departure, let's see what happens in June.
    I know they've done this in the past but it's starting to become the distant past, isn't it?

    Hicks wasn't underslot.
    Gibson wasn't underslot.
    Wimmers wasn't underslot, was he?
    Michael wasn't underslot (but damn, that didn't work out for them at all).
    Buxton obviously wasn't underslot.

    Sure, Revere was underslot but a lot has happened since 2007.

  11. #31
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
    I hate to say it, but I think things are going to look really bad about a month from now. The Twins are playing some of their worst ball of the season at the moment, and now must head to Atlanta and Detroit, the beginning of a stretch in which they play 15 of 20 on the road.

    On the bright side, I think they'll have a pretty decent second half and finish short of 90 losses. But I'm bracing for the worst in the short-term.
    This is how I see it playing out as well. The rotation is going to get really ugly in the short-term against tough teams on the road.

    Then we'll see some player movement and the team will probably improve as the front office jettisons a few of those 5+ ERAs for something closer to league average.

  12. #32
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    It's not all Gardy fault. He is doin all he can, If you can't find him better pitching there isn't much hope.

  13. #33
    Super Moderator All-Star ChiTownTwinsFan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Top Gun View Post
    It's not all Gardy fault. He is doin all he can, If you can't find him better pitching there isn't much hope.
    I don't disagree with that, either. But I do think a change is necessary. I'm not on the 'worst manager ever' bandwagon, but I think his era is coming to a close, one way or another. It's just time. And the fact that he hasn't been extended already I think is a sign. My guess ... why give the job to someone new in a year when they knew it was still gonna be bad. So when they turn the corner (hopefully next year) it's with fresh skills. I think it's his last year unless lightning strikes.

  14. #34
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    I also think that things will look really bad a month from now. I'm not so sure about finishing with less than 90 losses though, especially with the OP's original projected pace of 89 losses (sorry, I've been in a dark hole for the last month and hadn't looked at the numbers).

    I suspect they will finish with less losses than the last 2 years -- somewhere in the low 90's. The thing we will need to judge is the progress (or lack thereof) they have made toward re-shaping this team to be more competitive in future years.

  15. #35
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Top Gun View Post
    It's not all Gardy fault. He is doin all he can, If you can't find him better pitching there isn't much hope.
    I don't see how this can be blamed on Gardy. A bad pitching staff is a bad pitching staff.

    I'm not against the Twins exploring a different direction with their on-field management but you can't blame this team's performance on Gardenhire. You just can't... He has so little pitching talent to work with over a 162 game season.

  16. #36
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    Well, I think I had them at around 75-78 wins, so this is worse, right? Somehow they are underachieving predictions that had them losing 85-87 or so games......But I am not really surprised by this outcome so far. They bargain shopped for pitching, they did not sign a position player, they jettisoned two good starting OFers.....in retrospect, not sure why I thought they'd win more than last year. Well, I did think they'd have Gibson up here, which I'm sure at some point they'll do......
    Lighten up Francis....

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I don't see how this can be blamed on Gardy. A bad pitching staff is a bad pitching staff.

    I'm not against the Twins exploring a different direction with their on-field management but you can't blame this team's performance on Gardenhire. You just can't... He has so little pitching talent to work with over a 162 game season.
    It's never his fault when they are bad, but when they had good players it was his "fault" they were good? I don't get that.
    Lighten up Francis....

  18. #38
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    Everybody knows managers win games, players lose them!
    This comment brought to you from the Rosedale Mall studio by Hamm's Beer, brewed in the land of sky blue waters.

  19. #39
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    I think we've probably already reached our high point of the season and it'll be a tough slog for a bit. It'll be more interesting to see how Hicks, Arcia and Gibson play at this level. I think Ryan will trade Morneau and Willingham at the deadline and maybe Burton, too, to continue to build up a rotation/farm system.

    As for other subjects in this thread. I think the Twins are headed for another top 5 pick in the draft and I don't think they'll abandon BPA and that's probably, longterm, a good thing. Say what you will about Johnson but he's drafts have at least been bold. On Gardy: I think he sticks around for a few more years and eventually is replaced by Dougie Baseball.

  20. #40
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    It's never his fault when they are bad, but when they had good players it was his "fault" they were good? I don't get that.
    You're arguing a point I've never tried to make.

    I put very little stock in baseball coaching. I don't think it has much of an impact unless the manager is a Joe Maddon-type manager.

    IMO, Gardy does a decent job of clubhouse management and keeping his guys fresh through a long season (though his bizarre run-ins with young players seems to be more frequent and troubling in recent seasons). Past that, I don't feel it matters much.

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