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Thread: What team will take a big step back this year?

  1. #1
    Member Single-A dave_dw's Avatar
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    What team will take a big step back this year?

    Going into 2011, the Twins were expected to win the Central. In the Fangraphs organization rankings (which are being handed out for 2012 right now), the Twins had the #6 franchise. After a 99 loss season, they're now ranked as the 26th best franchise...quite a drop.

    What team will take a big, Twins-like drop in 2012?

  2. #2
    Member Single-A dave_dw's Avatar
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    I think it's gunna be the Atlanta Braves. When I look at their line-up, I'm surprised at how weak their hitting is. Pair that with a shaky staff full of injury risks and young pitchers, and you could have a disaster. Especially in an NL East that has beefed up. I wouldn't be surprised if they finished 4th in the East this year.

  3. #3
    I agree with the Braves. I also tend to think the Diamondbacks may regress a little after a surprisingly great year out of nowhere. Maybe even the Phillies, missing Howard and Utley out of the gates?

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dave_dw View Post
    What team will take a big, Twins-like drop in 2012?
    Not sure Twins' like, but:

    Braves
    Phillies
    Cardinals
    Brewers
    Indians

    will be much worse than they were. If I were to pick the single-biggest drop, I'd say Cardinals
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  5. #5
    Brew crew or the pale hose

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    I think the Tigers emphasis on hitters who can't play defense (Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrerra, Delmon Young, etc) is going to come back and bite them in the ass.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    Although I'd really like to see the Angels and Rangers fall apart, just out of spite. Who wouldn't want to see an Oakland/Seattle Pennant Race?

  8. #8
    Senior Member All-Star James's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spideyo View Post
    I think the Tigers emphasis on hitters who can't play defense (Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrerra, Delmon Young, etc) is going to come back and bite them in the ass.
    I agree that it might bite them, but in the case of the Tigers, they're probably only going to go from first to second, or maybe third. Unless Verlander finds himself on the DL for the majority of the season, I just don't see the Tigers losing 99 games. Although, I wouldn't mind seeing the Tigers lose 99 games again.

    After the Cardinals and the Braves, it kind of turns from educated guesses to complete guesses. Maybe the Yankees as A-Rod and Jeter fail to put up any numbers at all? Maybe the Red Sox due to a new manager and limited starting pitching depth? Like I said, complete guess work.
    You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by spideyo View Post
    Who wouldn't want to see an Oakland/Seattle Pennant Race?
    With the big win in Japan this morning Seattle is on their way. Watch out!!

  10. #10
    I think the Cards are a sub .500 team this year. That lineup is painfully old and brittle, and Carpenter is already having issues. They probably made the right decision by not signing Pujols to a 10yr deal, but without that consistent force in the middle of the lineup I think their window has closed for now.

  11. #11
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    The thing I find interesting is that the fangraphs rankings are/were meant to reflect an entire organization's quality. That includes a lot more than wins and losses this year or last. The comments here seem to suggest people are searching to answer the question "Which on-field team will drop like the Twins did from '10 to '11?" And while that's an interesting question, I don't think it reflects what fangraphs was/is trying to rank. And to that end, it seems their process is flawed, at least when it comes to the Twins. One bad on-field season shouldn't matter THAT MUCH to an organization's health, should it? This isn't an atypical phenomenon, but I'd like to think the fangraphs folks are one of the standard bearers of avoiding that type of reactionary thinking.

    And just for the record, this year's fangraphs ranking had the Twins organization at #25, not 26. Things are looking up already!!

  12. #12
    I like the nominations others have made, esp. the Braves and the Cards. I don't think the Yankees will make the playoffs, will probably be 3rd in the AL East--is that a big enough step down to count?
    "Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand."

  13. #13
    Senior Member All-Star Ultima Ratio's Avatar
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    Boy, do I wish it were the Yankees, finishing fourth in the east. Realistically, I say the Indians and the Rays will fall significantly.
    Man is born free, but everywhere he is in chains.

  14. #14
    Senior Member All-Star Bark's Lounge's Avatar
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    I don't think there really is a candidate to take a big step backwards. On paper everything seems in place. We all know the Astros, Mets, Athletics, Mariners, Cubs, Pirates will probably be bad, but that is not guaranteed. The rest of the teams seem to have some key players in place. All we can do is watch them overachieve, achieve, or underachieve. Injuries happen, bad years happen. Let the games begin! FYI - The Card's will be very good.

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    Senior Member All-Star Bark's Lounge's Avatar
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    Oops, I forgot to add the Orioles. They will probably be bad also.

  16. #16
    Twins Daily Writer Big-Leaguer Cody Christie's Avatar
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    My pick for the AL is the Red Sox. It sounds like a lot of players are already fed up with the manager. I could see them finishing behind the Yankees, Rays, and maybe even the Blue Jays.

    In the NL, I think the Central is going to be a mess. I don't think the Cardinals will make the playoffs so I guess that would be a drop off but they barely squeaked in at the end of last year.

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