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Thread: Joe Benson leading off?

  1. #21
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Back to the original issue, I do see that Benson could be a 5 or 6 hitter. That said, I do imagine that he will be traded no later than 2015.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Yeah, I would be hella on board with a Hicks-Mauer top of the order. Other than that it just seems like it would have to be Carroll-Mauer. But Gardy's choice might be something like Mastro-Dozier-Mauer.

    Hicks-Mauer-Willingham-Morneau-Doumit-Plouffe-Parmelee-Dozier-Florimon is actually a formidable lineup. If Hicks is down, I would honestly just put Boggs in there at leadoff. Yeah.

    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    1. Hicks
    2. Mauer

    That is the top of the lineup that can win you some ball games.

    Parmelee isn't a #2 hitter, you need a guy who at least has a little speed or preferably can get on base at a good clip. Parmelee personally projects as a #6/#7 hitter to me.

    1) Hicks/Mauer is my personal preference, as well, w/ Carroll @ #9 (terrific in 2012 batting 9th: 274/357/333 vs. League Average of 233/292/349). Unfortunately, we all understand that it is unlikely to happen.

    2) I think we all know that Dozier is going to be given every chance to bat Second, but Parmelee fits into the AL East concept of the 2-Hole batter to a certain extent and could possibly answer the concerns about OBP, while providing a pull-hitting LHB to hit behind Hicks and offset his lack of speed by providing a much more favorable GB/FB ratio to the alternatives and increased OF gap power to limit the DP possibilities and increase the overall TB numbers.

    Consider- if OBP is the main concern, these are Parmelee's career batting slashes, which are encouraging enough to suggest that if given a chance, Parm could develop into a superior OBP guy in the 2-Hole:

    MLB: 265/336/448 (w/ MOB 278/354/426)
    AAA: 338/457/645
    MiL: 273/365/455

    Here's the AL average at the 2-Hole in 2012:

    AL#2: 254/314/389

    Here's the Twins average at the 2-Hole in 2012 vs. AL East team slashes (Revere skews up the Twins numbers, getting half the ABs @ #2):

    MNT2: 273/321/329

    NYY2: 253/341/479
    TBJ2: 247/319/422
    BOS2: 263/312/397
    BAL2: 230/277/375
    TBR2: 230/304/423

    2012 AL East Average: 249/311/419.

    This data shows that OBP is clearly less important in the AL East- while power is clearly emphasized, even to light-hitting Tampa Bay! Parmelee could provide clearly superior OBP numbers to the AL East average while possibly matching or exceeding their power numbers.

    More data:

    XBHs in the 2-Hole for the Twins in 2012: 27
    XBHs AL East average at 2-Hole in 2012: 59.5

    SFH for Twins from 2-Hole in 2012: 10
    SFH for AL East average @#2 in 12: 5.1

    I have no hope that the Twins would at least try this option, but the alternatives for this year are comparatively pathetic. (Sadly, after retrieving all these numbers, it made putting Mauer at #2 all-the-more-obvious decision).
    Last edited by jokin; 03-06-2013 at 03:48 AM.

  3. #23
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    IMO, who is in the lineup is much more important than where they hit in the lineup. Your best hitters should be somewhere near the top so they come to the plate more often over the course of a season. Other than that, "leadoff," "#2 hitter," etc are just names that have little to do with how many runs a team scores.

  4. #24
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    Welcome to sur la table. It's improbable but not impossible.

  5. #25
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    I expect Hicks to struggle this year. He has some flaws and he's always taken a year to adjust when he was simply moving up a level in the minors. Moving up to the majors is a huge jump.

    I also like the idea of parmelee 2nd but realistically there is almost no chance it happens.

  6. #26
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
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    Benson had a .388 OBP at AA in 2011. Last year was a disaster for him.
    IF AA was not his ceiling and IF he comes back and proves to be a MLB player his OBP could very well be fine, based on history.
    Don't really care if he strikes out a lot if he gets on base at a good clip (though without a high BABIP the two don't go together well).

  7. #27
    Benson has options this year and, I believe, next season too. Wouldn't have to be exposed until 2015. But if he doesn't produce, expect him to be at least packaged in a trade before then.
    Joel Thingvall
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    rosterman at www.twinscards.com

  8. #28
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    How much would the Twins receive in a trade for a guy who has failed at the major league level and plays a position the Twins are known to have in excess?

  9. #29
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    A while back I went through the hitting results for teams based on position in the order, trying to find a relationship to the scoring that teams did.

    I'm not totally sure how to interpret the data. The strongest correlation between lineup production and team scoring is at the 1st and 4th spots in the order. My theory is that, because the 1st spot will lead off at least once per game, and the 4th spot is guranteed to leadoff the 2nd inning in about 1/3 of all games (and then more or less randomly for the rest of the game), production in those two spots is more critical than elsewhere in the lineup.

    https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5pI...it?usp=sharing
    Last edited by Willihammer; 03-06-2013 at 01:15 PM.

  10. #30
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    How much would the Twins receive in a trade for a guy who has failed at the major league level and plays a position the Twins are known to have in excess?
    Depends on whether you can find one team needing good CF work and wanting to take a chance on his bat, or two of them.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rosterman View Post
    Benson has options this year and, I believe, next season too. Wouldn't have to be exposed until 2015. But if he doesn't produce, expect him to be at least packaged in a trade before then.
    Benson only has one option year left...this year.

  12. #32
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Benson has an option remaining. He was added to the 40-man roster before the 2011 season, and optioned out that year and in 2012.

  13. #33
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Parm could develop into a superior OBP guy in the 2-Hole:.
    And will increase Mauer's GIDP by lots, compared to a speedy infielder batting second. I think that Mauer's double plays is part of the reason that Gardenhire likes to bat speedy people in front of him.
    -----
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  14. #34
    Senior Member All-Star Boom Boom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    And will increase Mauer's GIDP by lots, compared to a speedy infielder batting second. I think that Mauer's double plays is part of the reason that Gardenhire likes to bat speedy people in front of him.
    I think I'd rather have a slow guy who can get on base and risk the double play than a speedy guy with questionable on base skills.

  15. #35
    Twins Moderator All-Star twinsnorth49's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boom Boom View Post
    I think I'd rather have a slow guy who can get on base and risk the double play than a speedy guy with questionable on base skills.
    Yep, having someone on base to advance more often is a better scenario than Joe coming up with nobody on and 1 out.

  16. #36
    Senior Member All-Star Boom Boom's Avatar
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    When Mauer hits a ground ball on the right side, it's usually sharp enough that any runner going from 1st to 2nd is going to get doubled up.

  17. #37
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boom Boom View Post
    When anyone hits a ground ball on the right side, it's usually sharp enough that any runner going from 1st to 2nd is going to get forced.
    FTFY. It's the hitter who gets "doubled up," not the runner on first, and as you said, the baserunner's speed isn't typically the issue, unless he has already stolen 2nd base. Any runner is going to get forced. Which, I guess might have been Thrylos' point. Of course, if that was his point, I don't think it's a valid one, since IMO teams should worry more about how often a player gets to first base to begin with than how likely they are to steal second once they get there. Not to mention as I said, unless he's already stolen second, or at least moving on the pitch, it doesn't matter if it's Usain Bolt at 1st base, most ground balls fielded cleanly by an infielder are going to result in a force out at second base. Whether the team can turn two isn't dependent on the baserunner, it depends on the hitter, the fielders, and how hard the ball was hit.
    Last edited by USAFChief; 03-06-2013 at 05:38 PM.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Um, let's see: yes, no, maybe, probably, conceivably, undoubtedly. Any more questions?
    That dang Chief thinks he has ALL the answers.

  19. #39
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    So is the main argument if people would rather have Ben Revere or a mid 2000's Nick Johnson in the two hole?

  20. #40
    Twins Moderator All-Star twinsnorth49's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by edavis0308 View Post
    So is the main argument if people would rather have Ben Revere or a mid 2000's Nick Johnson in the two hole?
    Hmmmm, that would be interesting to consider. I think the mid 2000's Johnson flashed enough HR power to not be wasted in the two hole but a 2009 version maybe. in '09 he scored 1 run more than Revere did last year in roughly 20 more PA's. He stole 38 less bases but posted an OBP almost 100 points higher than Ben. Maybe Washington or Florida cold have scored even more runs with Johnson hitting 2 or even lead off.

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