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Thread: Article: The Blizzard of Oz

  1. #101
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    I responded privately to these "not reasonable ideas to me" (and most any other sane poster here). I will leave it there and let this silly injustice end here.

  2. #102
    Twins News Team MVP
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    Quote Originally Posted by mnfanforlife View Post
    Another prospect, Miguel Sano, hit .258 last year....Yet, many pro-scouts project him to hit for a high average as he matures. Hicks' situation is not identical, but I like how he handled AA last year. Made a huge jump in hit/at-bat ratio from A+ to AA...why not expect him to maintain those numbers in AAA, and ultimately in MLB??
    I'm confident that Hicks will be an impactful player once he finally sticks. While it's exciting to see what he did last year, albeit in AA and is certainly the #1 topic this spring, it's important to remember that a "toolsy" Herman Hill was once the talk of spring training before he ended up on a likely 4th OF track before his tragic demise. Not saying that Hicks is Hill, just that thus far this spring Hick's numbers have come against an average pitcher experience level of AAAA, at best. The Twins should handle this potentially huge asset carefully to maximize his value. Is he capable of a Hunter-esque career? Absolutely. Should he be annointed as such now? Definitely not. The body of evidence is simply not there to label him as "can't miss" and applying the label could damage his development. The Twins would be wise to continue to monitor his progression carefully. I hope he makes it North in the opening day lineup and hits the ground running, ala Harper. If the Twins don't bring him up right away, or demote him shortly after an early season failed tryout, it's no reason to panic and every reason to continue the Twins steady and patient course with Hicks.

    The unbiased, and unemotionally attached, "projection experts" (ZIPS, Oliver, Steamer) certainly aren't expecting what you have practically deemed as the gospel outcome. You also failed to note his unrealistically sustainable recent minor league BABIP numbers. Based on their 2013 predictions of around .236/.317/.370/.687, I think realistic enthusiasm for Hicks in his first year would be .250/.330/.395/.725 (his OBP could be even better with the right guy batting #2):

    http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpdetails...71&position=OF









































    Last edited by jokin; 03-08-2013 at 08:34 PM.

  3. #103
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    Thank you. I do not wish to "annoint" anyone as anything. But, I agree that Hicks could have a similar career to Hunter. Its a reasonable comparison, since they are both elite defenders and have seen their share of minor league struggles. Time will tell. Thank you for your research and opinion on Hicks. (somehow this thread got derailed from Oswaldo Arcia, but I am enjoying the discussion none the less)

  4. #104
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I'm confident that Hicks will be an impactful player once he finally sticks. While it's exciting to see what he did last year, albeit in AA and is certainly the #1 topic this spring, it's important to remember that a "toolsy" Herman Hill was once the talk of spring training before he ended up on a likely 4th OF track before his tragic demise. Not saying that Hicks is Hill, just that thus far this spring Hick's numbers have come against an average pitcher experience level of AAAA, at best. The Twins should handle this potentially huge asset carefully to maximize his value. Is he capable of a Hunter-esque career? Absolutely. Should he be annointed as such now? Definitely not. The body of evidence is simply not there to label him as "can't miss" and applying the label could damage his development. The Twins would be wise to continue to monitor his progression carefully. I hope he makes it North in the opening day lineup and hits the ground running, ala Harper. If the Twins don't bring him up right away, or demote him shortly after an early season failed tryout, it's no reason to panic and every reason to continue the Twins steady and patient course with Hicks.

    The unbiased, and unemotionally attached, "projection experts" (ZIPS, Oliver, Steamer) certainly aren't expecting what you have practically deemed as the gospel outcome. You also failed to note his unrealistically sustainable recent minor league BABIP numbers. Based on their 2013 predictions of around .236/.317/.370/.687, I think realistic enthusiasm for Hicks in his first year would be .250/.330/.395/.725 (his OBP could be even better with the right guy batting #2):

    http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpdetails...71&position=OF



    Thanks for your awesome, unemotional projection that you ripped off of some number crunching site. So exciting. I never anointed anyone with any "gospel." I did project what Hicks' career year may look like, which is still reasonable, despite what you think is statistically possible.
    Believe what you want, I will too. And I am not "in the least" persuaded to lose my passion and emotion for baseball and baseball prospects.

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