02-18-2013, 11:59 AM #1
Listening to Gleeman and the Geek and their preference for Casey Fien motivated me to learn a little more about him.
How much weight will the Twins put in Casey Fien's performance in a small sample in the majors?
Reasons for concern...
His numbers in AAA were mediocre for a reliever.
His small sample in the majors was aided by an unsustainable .229 BABIP.
His ground ball rate was 24.7% in the majors and 29.4% over the previous 2 years in the minors.
Already 29, his age gives him no hope for upside.
Do you share their confidence in Fien? Will he be an asset in the bullpen this year?
02-18-2013, 12:14 PM #2
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For me personally I thought he passed the eye test. His pitches looked great. As long as his he continues to locate I think he could stick. He's not expected to close or setup but just to do a better job than Burnett or Swarzak or Gray. He does through harder than any of our relievers as well which is nice. Here's to hoping he continues to eat up quality innings anyway he can.
02-18-2013, 12:34 PM #3
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I can't speak for Gleeman or the Geek, but I'd guess it's all about K rate and BB rate. The guy has always had solid rates in the minors, even if he wasn't dominant, and unlike some other minor league relievers (Jim Hoey, Sean Henn), he actually carried it over to major leagues, at least for 35 innings last year. He's definitely worth a shot this year, possibly better than any of our 2012 relievers outside of Perkins and Burton.
02-18-2013, 12:43 PM #4
Something seemingly clicked for Fien mid-way through his time with the Red Wings last year. Before that, he was very mediocre, but at some point, he just started airing it out and found much more success. He carried that into his time with the Twins, and was a guy that Gardy could count on most times out. I think he's a given. I think when I did my roster projections, I had him and Burnett both very high in terms of likelihood to make the opening day roster. Pretty much a given.
02-18-2013, 12:45 PM #5
He has had good strike out numbers in the minors. It wasn't good enough for the Astros (2011) or Tigers(prior to 2011) to give him a sustained chance in the majors.
I hope you are right. It will give the Twins two Cal-Poly guys on the staff. Maybe they can engineer some wins.
02-18-2013, 12:57 PM #6
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02-18-2013, 02:43 PM #7"Maybe you could go grab a bat and ball… and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
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02-18-2013, 04:14 PM #8
I looked at Rochester last year and among relievers 8.2 looks well below average. Once you get to individuals relievers, all will have sample size problems. Looking at it as a group, Slama(13.9), Gutierrez(11.2), Oliveros(10.7), Robertson(10.4), Deduno(9.9), Vasquez(8.8) and Guerra(8.8) all put up better rates. Compared to the group, 8.2 looks a little mediocre. I looked at the 2011 data in Oklahoma City. His 8.9 looks good until you see a bunch of relievers on the team did better. Look at 2010, you will find the same mediocre results when looking at K rate.
It doesn't seem likely that a pitcher would maintain his K9 rate in the majors over time.
Given that he doesn't get ground balls (in the majors or minors), how far can his K9 rate fall in the majors while still being effective over time? I don't think it has any room to fall. Even at 8.2, he may not have enough to be effective.
02-18-2013, 04:35 PM #9
02-18-2013, 04:51 PM #10