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Thread: Draft Pick Values

  1. #1
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Draft Pick Values

    According to BA, pick values will increase by about 7%. Last year, the Twins had a pool value of over $12 million. This year they will be around $8.2 million.

    After Bourn and Lohse sign, the picks will move and so their pool will change, so these are the Twins Top 10 round picks as of today.

    Round 1, 4 overall - $4,494,000
    Round 2, 42 overall - $1,312,890
    Round 3, 78 overall - $695,179
    Round 4, 110 overall - $462,989
    Round 5, 140 overall - $346,573
    Round 6, 170 overall - $259,582
    Round 7, 200 overall - $194,419
    Round 8, 230 overall - $156,862
    Round 9, 260 overall - $146,483
    Round 10, 290 overall - $136,853

    Without losing a pick (and paying a tax) and not saving on the other picks, the Twins could pay their #4 pick up to $4,900,000. Mark Appel turned down $3.8 last year and was said to asking for closer to $7 million. On the other side of that coin, after Buxton's $6 million, the next highest bonus was Carlos Correa, who signed for $4,800,000. So even though their bonus pool is much smaller, the Twins can still stand to pay a historically large bonus to the #4 pick.

    I know the draft is still months away... but I'm gearing up for it already.

  2. #2
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Appel had better go in the first two picks or he's going to end up leaving piles of money on the table. He has virtually no bargaining power this draft.

  3. #3
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    For those unaware, Jeremy is the official Unofficial Draft Expert of Twins Daily who we should make official! (Or something like that). I'm told that this draft is "horrible", but they will certainly take someone at #4 with some major upside.

    I do love what the Astros did in the 2012 draft. They took Correia as much for signability as for the fact that he is a legit hitting talent, but they used the extra $2.4 million he signed below the cap and took Lance McCullers and gave him $2.5 million and also got Rio Ruiz in the 4th round and went overslot for him.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    According to BA, pick values will increase by about 7%. Last year, the Twins had a pool value of over $12 million. This year they will be around $8.2 million.

    After Bourn and Lohse sign, the picks will move and so their pool will change, so these are the Twins Top 10 round picks as of today.

    Round 1, 4 overall - $4,494,000
    Round 2, 42 overall - $1,312,890
    Round 3, 78 overall - $695,179
    Round 4, 110 overall - $462,989
    Round 5, 140 overall - $346,573
    Round 6, 170 overall - $259,582
    Round 7, 200 overall - $194,419
    Round 8, 230 overall - $156,862
    Round 9, 260 overall - $146,483
    Round 10, 290 overall - $136,853

    Without losing a pick (and paying a tax) and not saving on the other picks, the Twins could pay their #4 pick up to $4,900,000. Mark Appel turned down $3.8 last year and was said to asking for closer to $7 million. On the other side of that coin, after Buxton's $6 million, the next highest bonus was Carlos Correa, who signed for $4,800,000. So even though their bonus pool is much smaller, the Twins can still stand to pay a historically large bonus to the #4 pick.

    I know the draft is still months away... but I'm gearing up for it already.
    thanks Jeremy is very helpful information

  5. #5
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    You bet. (Thanks for the plug, Seth.)

    There is still a lot of time for this draft to be "horrible" or be just okay. I think there is a considerable amount of upside, so you might see guys getting bigger bonuses to skip college even though they are a looonnnggg ways away. The whole signing vs college decision has become a slippery slope that has hurt the college game. Personally, I would like to see more guys go to college and develop there. At the same time, turning down a million dollars at 18 isn't something I would ever consider a "smart move".

    As far as Appel goes, Brock, you're right. He was given bad advice last year. Part of me thinks there are some GMs out there that would enjoy sticking it to Boras (again!) and Appel is collateral damage. The best move Appel could make is stay healthy and switch advisors before the Draft. If he doesn't, I wouldn't touch Appel even though he's the top talent on the board (right now).

    (Mark, if you're reading this... I'll give you better advice than the Boras Co. and I come much cheaper.)

  6. #6
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
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    Very cool Jeremy.
    I can see that a GM would offer Appel less than slot, insisting that they need the higher dollars to sign younger players.
    Unless Boras has a back door to effectively have Appel become a free agent & get teams into a bidding war for him I don't see how this could possibly have been a good thing for Appel.
    These slot numbers are not so small that the kids can ignore the amounts, but they keep the Boras type agents from playing games with a kid's career. Appel is the slow learner.

  7. #7
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    #42 is a pretty high pick for a second rounder...there are a lot fewer sandwich picks this year.

  8. #8
    Senior Member All-Star IdahoPilgrim's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AM. View Post
    #42 is a pretty high pick for a second rounder...there are a lot fewer sandwich picks this year.
    I'm guessing the new CBA is the cause. It made it harder for teams to qualify for draft compensation when you lose a free agent.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Appel had better go in the first two picks or he's going to end up leaving piles of money on the table. He has virtually no bargaining power this draft.
    So when would Appel be declared a FA when Boras pulls the same old crap and believes that he is worth $7M? What is the signing deadline for drafted players to sign?

    Come on Jeremy, this is an easy question for you.

  10. #10
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by darin617 View Post
    So when would Appel be declared a FA when Boras pulls the same old crap and believes that he is worth $7M? What is the signing deadline for drafted players to sign?

    Come on Jeremy, this is an easy question for you.
    Worked well for Matt Harrington, didn't it?

  11. #11
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by darin617 View Post
    So when would Appel be declared a FA when Boras pulls the same old crap and believes that he is worth $7M? What is the signing deadline for drafted players to sign?

    Come on Jeremy, this is an easy question for you.
    Around July 15, depends on where it falls in the week. Unless something has changed, Appel would have to re-enter the draft again next year if he doesn't sign. He could play Indy ball, but Aaron Crow did that a few years ago and still had to go through the draft process.

  12. #12
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sbknudson View Post
    I'm guessing the new CBA is the cause. It made it harder for teams to qualify for draft compensation when you lose a free agent.
    For sure, less guys tied to compensation and the team who signs has their pick disappear instead of having it go to the team who lost the player.

    There were 12 "competitive balance" picks added, but still far less picks total.

  13. #13
    Boras is a frustrating character. I want him to suffer the consequences when he toughs-up during negotiations against reason and against the best interests of his client. Unfortunately, that can't happen without the real loser being the kid who followed his advice. Shame on any pitcher with the hubris to turn his back on over $3 million (Pirate slot) and probably more if he hadn't floated a number pre-draft that only the first couple teams could give him. Still, I can't wish an injury or regression on a talented 22 year-old. But I can throw shade on the adults in the equation - Boras and his parents.

    Does anyone think Boras is going to be holding his breath during every Appel pitch during a full college season? He'll be too busy counting his commissions from Fielder et al. and ducking Michael Bourn's phone calls. But I bet Mom and Dad Appel will be sweating every pitch. And they should.
    Last edited by Dance with Disco Dan; 02-04-2013 at 11:05 PM.

  14. #14
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    Around July 15, depends on where it falls in the week. Unless something has changed, Appel would have to re-enter the draft again next year if he doesn't sign. He could play Indy ball, but Aaron Crow did that a few years ago and still had to go through the draft process.
    Yeah, he'll still have to play indy ball and I don't know of a prospect who hasn't left a lot of money on the table by going that route. It's a bad decision and it prolongs his free agency by another year (which would be two years at that point). It was stupid to leave the money on the table he did last season. If he has any faith in his ability at all, he'd easily make that money back (and then a lot more on top of it) with one additional year of free agency during his prime (age 29 or so) years.

  15. #15
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    I guess I'm one of the few that actually hopes Appel drops to us. He'd instantly be our #1 pitching prospect, and unlike a few other guys near the top, no question of whether he can stay a starter. I argued with Pirate fans last year over this but I don't think Appel/Boras made a mistake. They made a gamble, for sure, but one that they are likely to profit from. And while I don't really like Boras, I think he's one of the few people around baseball that is capable of fighting the owners for more money. Baseball's worth has increased faster than player salaries and I think too many owners (esp ours) keep payrolls far lower than what they can really afford.

  16. #16
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    At this point if Manaea and Stanek are off the board then you take Appel if he's there. The worst case is getting the 2014 #5 pick in what could be a better draft. but who knows what players could emerge during the spring HS and college seasons.

  17. #17
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    Do the scouts regard Manaea, Stanek, and Appel as future aces?

  18. #18
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer righty8383's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    Do the scouts regard Manaea, Stanek, and Appel as future aces?
    Some might. But then again some use the term "ace" more loosely than others

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by sbknudson View Post
    I'm guessing the new CBA is the cause. It made it harder for teams to qualify for draft compensation when you lose a free agent.
    yep. this pick would probably be around pick number 60 in the old cba.

    b.a. came out with their top 50 prospects the other day. four is theoretically a tough spot to be in with three top college arms and the teams ahead of you needing impact arms but there are a few second tier pitchers who could emerge. my money is on dillon overton from oklahoma to make a push to be in the top five before it's over.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I guess I'm one of the few that actually hopes Appel drops to us. He'd instantly be our #1 pitching prospect, and unlike a few other guys near the top, no question of whether he can stay a starter. I argued with Pirate fans last year over this but I don't think Appel/Boras made a mistake. They made a gamble, for sure, but one that they are likely to profit from. And while I don't really like Boras, I think he's one of the few people around baseball that is capable of fighting the owners for more money. Baseball's worth has increased faster than player salaries and I think too many owners (esp ours) keep payrolls far lower than what they can really afford.
    They are certainly taking a risk - a big one. It is known that Appel turned down $3.8 million from the Pirates (more than max slot for pick no. 8). It was also reported, but is less certain, that Houston offered Appel the Corriea deal - i.e. accept $6 million as the first pick.

    So, depending on what is true, Boras convinced Appel that it was worth risking injury and regression for a maximum upside of $2-4 million. Significant money but enough to turn your back on $4-6 million knowing that the health of a young pitcher is very tenuous? I couldn't in good conscience recommend that gamble to a young man. Boras did. We'll see how it turns out.

    That said, I would take Appel in a heartbeat at no. 4 if he has a similar season again this year. He is a talent. I don't see how Appel could reject max slot as a 4-year college player.

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