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Thread: Catching and pitch framing

  1. #21
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    I was hoping that one of the supporters of pitch framing would have answered my question. How many strikeouts does it take to save a run?
    It's not really about strikeouts (even though the video talks about strikeouts... they would have been better served by ignoring something so heavily influenced by multiple factors, such as "we have a better pitching staff this season"). As another poster pointed out, the Yankees struck out more people in 2012 as well. Pinning (or even implying) that change is due to pitch framing is disingenuous.

    Framing leads to a few more strikeouts, yes... But most of its value derives from changing 2-1 counts to 1-2 counts or 1-0 counts to 0-1. This forces the batter into a defensive approach and the pitcher into an aggressive approach where he can use all of his pitches instead of just getting it over.

  2. #22
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    I was hoping that one of the supporters of pitch framing would have answered my question. How many strikeouts does it take to save a run?
    It is sort of dependent. The baseball prospectus guys give weight to calls based on inning, home/away, age, experience, handedness, runs allowed, and walk rate. In sum, they believe switching the call from a ball to a strike on a close pitch is worth about 0.13 runs on average.

    The pitchf/x guy I have reference before weighs pitcher, batter, and umpire called strike percentages against count-specific and pitch-specific league averages. it is explained in detail across his two blog posts here:

    This is the sum of it

    Since I talked about Darvish and Napoli at the beginning of this article, let me feature the duo to illustrate the point. Darvish faces Mike Trout with Napoli behind the plate and Bod Davidson... - Oh! the Nemesis of all Japanese fans! - calling the game, and Darvish throws 93 mph fastball a bit far and away to Trout, that Trout kept the stick on his shoulder and Bob called the pitch 'Ball!'. In 2012, that 1-0 pitch to a right-handed batter is estimated to be judged strike 87.0% of the time according to naive model, and this probability functions as a reference point. Then, the estimated probability of called strike on that pitch is adjusted by the hitter, pitcher, and umpire's own rate. Net called strike rate for Yu Darvish is -0.1%, meaning every pitch Darvish throws is less likely to be called strike, on a very slight amount. Likewise, Trout's net called strike rate is -0.5% and Bob's 1.7%, so the 87.0% probability naive model spitted is adjusted that exactly the same pitch to the same-handed hitter in the same hitting count for the same year, is now estimated to be called strike 88.1% of the time. Since Bob is a pitcher-friendly umpire, that pitching combo could benefit from his wider zone. Nonetheless, that pitch is called ball, so Napoli is debuted -.09 runs (-.881 times 0.102 runs, the run value in 1-0 count) for this result. The same procedure is conducted through all called pitches for all years. The count-based run value is via my own calculation, that I figured out linear weights through the count for 2008 to 2012, weeding out all intentional walks, bunts, and pitchers as batters. I did some slight correction for the distribution of the quality of hitters in each specific count, since lots of Pujols, Fielder, Mauer, et al. see themselves in 3-0 count. Here's run values chart for all counts permutation.

    Ball Strike Run Values
    0 0 0.071
    0 1 0.079
    0 2 0.195
    1 0 0.102
    1 1 0.107
    1 2 0.231
    2 0 0.152
    2 1 0.165
    2 2 0.319
    3 0 0.179
    3 1 0.256
    3 2 0.575

  3. #23
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    It's not really about strikeouts (even though the video talks about strikeouts... they would have been better served by ignoring something so heavily influenced by multiple factors, such as "we have a better pitching staff this season"). As another poster pointed out, the Yankees struck out more people in 2012 as well. Pinning (or even implying) that change is due to pitch framing is disingenuous.

    Framing leads to a few more strikeouts, yes... But most of its value derives from changing 2-1 counts to 1-2 counts or 1-0 counts to 0-1. This forces the batter into a defensive approach and the pitcher into an aggressive approach where he can use all of his pitches instead of just getting it over.
    What you are posting in regards to getting ahead of hitters is very elementary on the baseball knowledge side of things. The author though claims the pitch framing is helping at a fantastic rate of called strikes if Willihammer has accurate statistics. In the baseball prospectus article they based their claim on the improvement made by soley on one season of work by Molina in Tampa. Yet after Posada returned for New York and Molina was gone strikeouts went up dramatically in New York. The reply that you gave is really pointless in determining why New York did so much better. They still needed strike one and two, no different than the year before. SAtatistically speaking if they struck out more people after first being behind in the count their total is truely amazing as well as unlikely.

  4. #24
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    What you are posting in regards to getting ahead of hitters is very elementary on the baseball knowledge side of things. The author though claims the pitch framing is helping at a fantastic rate of called strikes if Willihammer has accurate statistics. In the baseball prospectus article they based their claim on the improvement made by soley on one season of work by Molina in Tampa. Yet after Posada returned for New York and Molina was gone strikeouts went up dramatically in New York. The reply that you gave is really pointless in determining why New York did so much better. They still needed strike one and two, no different than the year before. SAtatistically speaking if they struck out more people after first being behind in the count their total is truely amazing as well as unlikely.
    I didn't try to give a reason why New York's strikeout rate went up... In fact, I did the exact opposite by stating that the video's implication that higher strikeout rates were due to pitch framing is disingenuous. There are simply too many reasons why strikeout rates fluctuate, first and foremost being "we found better pitchers this season".

    What exactly are you even asking? In this situation, you can't affix a static run value to a strikeout. A three pitch strikeout is not the same as a five pitch strikeout is not the same as a full count strikeout over ten pitches.

    Again, I said that the video's statement about strikeout rates and their attempts to tie it to pitch framing is a terrible idea. Look at increased strike calls, those are what pitch framing will influence. There are simply too many variables that lead to strikeouts and pointing a finger at pitch framing and stating "that's why we struck out so many people!" is so bloody stupid that I can't really fathom why they used it in the video.

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