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Thread: Opening Day lineup?

  1. #81
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by minn55441 View Post
    nicely done Nick. Now how are you at predicting the number of runs that will be scored by this lineup?
    #2 thru #7 is pretty solid. Veterans hitting 2-5 and guys with a chance to emerge at 6 and 7. I think the potency of the lineup will depend on the health of the veterans and productivity of Parm, Plouffe, Hicks, Dozier, and Florimon, with any offense supplied by the shortstop considered a bonus.

  2. #82
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    First good sign of the year, Mauer in the 2 hole.
    Lighten up Francis....

  3. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    You're kidding, right?

    A few problems... First, you're using oWAR for one player and WAR for another to make Lawton look good. Second, you're using two more years of Lawton's numbers to (again) make him look good, even though the Twins (or the Mets) didn't have him under contract.



    .
    Subject Reed/Lawton trade, vis a vis, 2013 Twins as sellers.

    Actually, IMO, the trade wasn't a wash (and stop calling me shirley), Reed actually hurt the Twins in 2001 (which apparently was the point of the trade?) and the point of my post was to emphasize that Lawton was a very productive player and attractive trade bait at the time for the Twins in 01 and continued being productive for an extended period of time after. Reed pitched well for the Twins in 2002, but was very lousy in 01 and his career ended ignominiously in 03 with a 5.07 ERA and a commensurate collapse of career peripherals. The trade has to be regarded as a failure for the Twins, as they at least theoretically could have traded for "less-proven but more upside" talent of a younger age than Lawton (who was near 31 at the time of the trade). With one of the primary focal points in 2013 being who gets traded in-season, and for what talent is acquired in return, it's incumbent on the FO to take a little risk (like with the Meyer and May off-season trades) and attempt to get as much potential upside+ level players that could be part of the long-term solution and not the "safe" 37 year old retreads (Rick Reed) and/or cheap alternatives that the trading partners comfortably regard as so much detritus.

  4. #84
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    Congrats to Nick on the spot-on lineup!

  5. #85
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    The trade has to be regarded as a failure for the Twins, as they at least theoretically could have traded for "less-proven but more upside" talent .
    If we're using what theoretically could have happened as a measuring stick, the Mets trade for Lawton is an equal failure. The trade really didn't work out for either team; that's what makes it a wash.

  6. #86
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    If we're using what theoretically could have happened as a measuring stick, the Mets trade for Lawton is an equal failure. The trade really didn't work out for either team; that's what makes it a wash.
    Yeah this. After the trade in 2001, Lawton posted a 0.3 WAR, Reed a -0.1 WAR.

    In 2002, Lawton posted a 1.2 WAR for Cleveland while Reed posted a 2.8 WAR for the Twins.

    In 2003, Lawton posted another 1.2 WAR for Cleveland and Reed posted a 0.9 WAR for the Twins.

    I don't know how that trade can be considered anything but a wash, with a slight nod toward the Twins if you have to choose a "winner".

  7. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    If we're using what theoretically could have happened as a measuring stick, the Mets trade for Lawton is an equal failure. The trade really didn't work out for either team; that's what makes it a wash.
    Refer back to potential value of Lawton who was having a great season following a pretty decent string of seasons- at the time of trade. Hopefully the Twins can be in a similar situation this year and do better than a 37 year old pitcher on his last legs.

  8. #88
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Refer back to potential value of Lawton who was having a great season following a pretty decent string of seasons- at the time of trade. Hopefully the Twins can be in a similar situation this year and do better than a 37 year old pitcher on his last legs.
    It's unlikely that trade happens in 2013, as the Twins probably won't be in contention. I was a bit puzzled by the Lawton trade when it happened but it wasn't a bad trade. The Twins were pushing for a division championship in 2001 and needed pitching help. Reed filled that need in the short-term.

  9. #89
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    Yeah, that 2001 team was in rough shape, pitching-wise, after Radke, Milton, and Mays. Santana was injured (and not yet dominant), Kyle Lohse just got called up from AA I think, Adam Johnson and Brad Thomas had already struggled...

    And while Lawton was having a solid year (crazy to look back at his K/BB numbers), he had some issues with the Twins front office, was going year-to-year on his contracts, and was up for his final arb season in 2002. I don't think his value was as high as it might seem from the numbers.

  10. #90
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    If we're using what theoretically could have happened as a measuring stick, the Mets trade for Lawton is an equal failure. The trade really didn't work out for either team; that's what makes it a wash.
    I dunno, Rick Reed wasn't sexy by any means but he did help them get to the playoffs in 2002 with a sub 4.00 ERA and almost 200 IP. (Had the most IP of any Twins starter and the 2nd lowest ERA behind Santana)The Twins also had an abundance of outfielders at the time.

    Those are the kind of good trades good GM's make, was it a highway robbery ala the Frank Viola or AJ deals? Of course not, but it was a very good move for the Twins that ultimately helped get them to the playoffs and ALCS the next year.

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