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Thread: Article: Inefficient Managing of "Dollars and Years"

  1. #1
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Article: Inefficient Managing of "Dollars and Years"


  2. #2
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    If Jamey Carroll gets those 401 plate appearances, I'll happily hand him the $2 million next year. I have 0 problem with Jamey Carroll. His batting average was down a little last year, but his walk rate was pretty similar, and he really is a steady, solid player in the infield. yeah, he'll be 39 this year, but if he gets through it healthy (and hence reaches the PA number), then there's no reason to believe someone that keeps himself in such great shape can't be a solid utility player in 2013.

    I've always (maybe inexplicably) liked Ronny Cedeno, but he'll likely be available again next season if the Twins need a utility infielder.

    I also like Eduardo Escobar as a utility guy and think he can be fine in that role for a long time.

    I'm definitely in agreement that I don't think that Florimon will be very good with the bat. I don't think anyone would disagree.

    I do believe that Brian Dozier will prove himself to be a solid MLB player. Not great, but solid. If you have Dozier and Carroll up the middle, with Escobar playing all three infield spots, I'm comfortable with that. I'm also OK with giving Florimon more of an opportunity.

    I went into the offseason thinking pitching-pitching-pitching, so I never placed any emphasis on the middle infield. I wouldn't have spent any extra dollars there. I would have spent more on SP, but I get what they did there too (with the Correia exception, of course).

  3. #3
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    No matter what, I think Brian Dozier will get his reps. Picking up another FA wouldn't negatively impact him too much. Escobar may be a decent utility guy but let's be honest here... Those guys grow on trees.

    And what's the worst that could happen? You end up with a few too many bodies and dangle somebody at the deadline. On the other hand, the Twins could be looking at a terrible middle infield if Dozier continues to collapse and Florimon can't hit his way out of a paper bag.

    Which also enacts the player option for Carroll in 2014. Again, Carroll isn't a bad player but no matter how well he plays, that team option stays in place for 2014 but for a very small amount of money, you can prevent being on the hook for what could be a really bad player option.

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    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Dozier should get a shot, yes, but I'd have to think he'd be better served by getting some PT and confidence in AAA before coming back. The big issue I see is that this 2014/15 team will still suck up the middle... Maybe the draft will change this, but even that Cuban defector will likely not be playing in MLB by 2015

  5. #5
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Escobar may be a decent utility guy but let's be honest here... Those guys grow on trees.
    Yes, but he'll make $490,000. The veteran utility guys cost $1-2.5 million. Why spend the extra.

    Which also enacts the player option for Carroll in 2014. Again, Carroll isn't a bad player but no matter how well he plays, that team option stays in place for 2014 but for a very small amount of money, you can prevent being on the hook for what could be a really bad player option.
    1 year, $2M?? At worst, he'll be overpaid like $0.5M. If he plays more than 'just a utility role, $2M is nothing. I'd say Jamey Carroll is the least of the Twins middle infield worries.

  6. #6
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    1 year, $2M?? At worst, he'll be overpaid like $0.5M. If he plays more than 'just a utility role, $2M is nothing. I'd say Jamey Carroll is the least of the Twins middle infield worries.
    Let's say the Twins picked up Kelly Johnson for whatever the Rays are paying him (probably between $1.5-2m). That's Carroll's player/team option amount in 2014. Sure, it's not a lot of money but it's indicative of the problem with this offseason and that's inefficient use of the free agent market.

    What if Carroll tanks in 2013 but given the continued struggles of Florimon and Dozier, is still run out there for 450 PAs? That means the Twins have a wasted roster spot eating up $2m in 2014 that they could have easily avoided by picking up another player to complement their middle infield. If Carroll continues to play well, good for the Twins. Then they enact the 2014 team option and keep him around for another year.

    There is virtually no risk in picking up a $2m middle infielder for 2013 because they have the money and they have the need. But as it stands now, that money could easily become a sunk cost on an old player who is no longer worth the space on a Major League roster.

    And that's my real problem. The team seems entirely directionless regarding the free agent market. There is no real downside to picking up a guy because he gives you a little more flexibility going into 2014 and he probably improves the 2013 squad. At that point, why not take the small risk and try to field a better team in the short-term?

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    what about offering minor league contracts to Theriot and Freddy Sanchez? Would either take it? I don't see why we wouldn't, it is not as if we are protecting superior players on the 35-40 positions on the roster....

  8. #8
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    btw, obviously I agree with Brock wholeheartedly

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Let's say the Twins picked up Kelly Johnson for whatever the Rays are paying him (probably between $1.5-2m). That's Carroll's player/team option amount in 2014. Sure, it's not a lot of money but it's indicative of the problem with this offseason and that's inefficient use of the free agent market.?
    What would Kelly Johnson - a not particularly good fielding left-handed, strikeout prone pull hitter - give the Twins in Target Field?

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    The analysis of the play of 2012 is correct. The analysis of how to fix it is what? They should have done something. The free agent market appeared to have a choice between no field or no hit kind of players. They have plenty of the latter. They traded what players they had to trade for a bigger need in pitching. To get a significant upgrade by the trade route would cost them a better prospect. You did not like the inaction, so what would you have wanted them to do that is a reasonable idea?

  11. #11
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    The analysis of the play of 2012 is correct. The analysis of how to fix it is what? They should have done something. The free agent market appeared to have a choice between no field or no hit kind of players. They have plenty of the latter. They traded what players they had to trade for a bigger need in pitching. To get a significant upgrade by the trade route would cost them a better prospect. You did not like the inaction, so what would you have wanted them to do that is a reasonable idea?
    At this point, I'm not even asking for a significant upgrade. All I'm asking for is an upgrade, period. It's virtually zero risk, as it lets the Twins out of a $2m player option for Carroll in 2014 if he doesn't perform in 2013.

    In most cases, I'm against the "more bodies equal better team" argument but in this singular case, it makes a lot of sense because the risk is so low. All you have to do is watch Pedro Florimon for five minutes to see that he's never going to be an adequate Major League starter (there are "no hit middle infielders" and then there are the "Pedro Florimons"). Dozier is a huge question mark. After that, there's nobody worth mentioning (sorry Seth but nobody is going to snatch Escobar away from the Twins if they stash him in AAA). Adding another player allows you to shift Carroll to a reserve role and save yourself from what could be a bad player option in 2014. All it takes is one player, a player that can be had for less money than Carroll's 2014 option.

    At that point, you have to ask yourself "Why the hell shouldn't I do this?"

  12. #12
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    Why I tend to lean towards Seth here, it is refreshing to have a debate about something other than the crappy pitching decisions.

  13. #13
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sorney View Post
    Why I tend to lean towards Seth here, it is refreshing to have a debate about something other than the crappy pitching decisions.
    Ha! I agree!!

  14. #14
    Senior Member Triple-A mcrow's Avatar
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    Yes, middle infield is one of many areas this team needs to address. I do think they're worse of at those positions than in the rotation at this point. Would have been nice to add MLB caliber infielder to the mix as of right now we're likely to have AAA level player out there at one position. I like Carroll but he is 39 and maybe would be a great bench guy but he's now forced into a role where the Twins are counting on him to produce above expectations.

  15. #15
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    With 20 plus million still avalible ,why not make a run at Diaz?
    If we acquire a shortstop , and have added 1 mlb pitcher and 2 prospects,
    I would concider this off season an improvement over last years...

  16. #16
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer righty8383's Avatar
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    Johnny is right. With the recent trade aquisitions, middle infield is the biggest weekness on htis team. They have Rosario for 2nd base but his defense is still a bit raw yet and he is still a couple years away anyway. We have a couple other low ceiling guys like Danny Santana and Levi Michael. Michael needs to show something this year.

    It seems that going after Diaz is almost too logical. A couple days ago Doogie tweeted that one of his sources said the Twins were concerned about some of the projected dollar amounts that he may be offered. If the Twins aren't willing to make a competetive offer than they don't care or they are clueless IMO.

  17. #17
    Senior Member Triple-A mcrow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    With 20 plus million still avalible ,why not make a run at Diaz?
    If we acquire a shortstop , and have added 1 mlb pitcher and 2 prospects,
    I would concider this off season an improvement over last years...
    Well, you know the answer to that.......they have no intentions of spending $20m more.

    The way it looks they're going to have to spend clost to $40M between now and next season to make it to the 50% of revenue they talk about.

  18. #18
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer FrodaddyG's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    The analysis of how to fix it is what?
    There's only one man to call:
    tumblr_m5biopvnE81qir083o1_500.jpg

  19. #19
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post

    I've always (maybe inexplicably) liked Ronny Cedeno, but he'll likely be available again next season if the Twins need a utility infielder.
    I noticed Ronny Cedeno signed for 1.15M base plus 0.85 in incentives. That sure would have been a cheap insurance policy against Florimon falling on his face. I think Florimon has a chance to be a decent fielder, but his sub-70 OPS+ sure is a black hole at the bottom of the lineup. I guess I can live with one, but that assumes 2B and CF are decent (hopefully Dozier and Hicks).

  20. #20
    Ronny Cedeno's career OPS plus is 71. What insurance does he provide over Florimon?

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