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Thread: Article: Brian Dozier Learned from 2012, Looks Forward to 2013

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    Maybe this is my own misperception, but Twins prospects the past decade or so have generally taken at least one or two years to develop; beyond Mauer, I'm having trouble thinking of one player who produced really well in his rookie year or at a young age.
    Was Diamond still considered a rookie last year? And I thought Duensing was pretty good right away, but I didn't bother to look it up.

    Just to keep myself on the topic of the thread a little.... I've said I think Gibson's performance this year (both quality and quantity) is a rather large wild card, but I'm starting to think that Dozier could be even more so. If he were to be even OK at either position and the plate, that would be a huge benefit compared to the alternative(s). My guess is the other options (or lack thereof) led to him being brought up at all and given as much rope as he was.

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    Morneau was pretty good when he got called up... It was his sophomore season that was utterly disappointing.

  3. #23
    Super Moderator All-Star twinsnorth49's Avatar
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    If he truly has learned from last year and commit's to the disipline in his approach this year, then he's capable of pulling off a .680-.700 OPS, which really isn't that much to ask. Other than that he just needs to make the plays the team needs him to make in the field, not much else.

    He's really the only hope at the plate this year in the MI from a SLG standpoint, he just needs to work a few extra AB's consistently and we're good.............and then there's Pedro.

  4. #24
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    Isn't Span a pretty good example of a player fans gave up on? He fell completely off a lot of top 40 Twins prospect lists when his stats looked pedestrian. Hopefully, Dozier is another one of those guys who has the potential to be more than what meets the eye of the fans.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    Isn't Span a pretty good example of a player fans gave up on? He fell completely off a lot of top 40 Twins prospect lists when his stats looked pedestrian. Hopefully, Dozier is another one of those guys who has the potential to be more than what meets the eye of the fans.
    The good news is that Span is an excellent example of a player who seemed to have hit a low ceiling after several years in the minors, and then suddenly turned into a quality major leaguer. The bad news is that when most people think of that kind of player, they're going to think of Span because of how rare an occurrence that is.

    But Span is probably an encouraging comp in one way, which is that he had about the same number of plate appearances in the minors as Dozier does when Denard finally saw the light. Dozier is older than Span was because of playing college ball, but the experience levels are similar.

    The James projection for Dozier in the majors in 2013 is roughly .250/.300/.370. If he can really manage that and play a passable short and second, he'll be an affordable utility guy for several years.

    If he can add a tick of power or OBP to that and play a little above average d at short by working on smart guy things like positioning, he'll be a poor man's Jason Bartlett minus the freakish season.

    If he hits a little worse and plays ok at second, he's Steve Lombardozzi senior, a guy who won't kill you but who never lets you stop thinking about how to replace him. Either way, he seems like a sharp kid, and I'll be pulling for him to have a major league career of some stripe.

  6. #26
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    I have absolutely no faith in Gardenhire or his group of flunkies to develop a decent middle infielder. To the best of my recollection it hasn't ever happened under Gardenhires tenure.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fairweather View Post
    I have absolutely no faith in Gardenhire or his group of flunkies to develop a decent middle infielder. To the best of my recollection it hasn't ever happened under Gardenhires tenure.
    The failure to develop a MI is NOT on Gardenhire it is on the Minor League coaches. Generally by the time the reach the majors they should be mostly there and just need a little polishing/fine tuning.

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    Super Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    But Span is probably an encouraging comp
    Encouraging indeed, because finding merely an average CF or SS is not that easy to do. Dozier doesn't need to become a star in order to have a huge impact on his team, much like I always viewed Greg Gagne as crucial to the championship teams.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by SweetOne69 View Post
    The failure to develop a MI is NOT on Gardenhire it is on the Minor League coaches. Generally by the time the reach the majors they should be mostly there and just need a little polishing/fine tuning.
    I agree, but I would restate what fairweather said. I have no faith in Gardenhire to acutally want to keep a decent middle infielder when they come along. I can think of two decent SS that this team has had since Guzman, and both were traded for meager returns in large part because Gardy didn't like them.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I agree, but I would restate what fairweather said. I have no faith in Gardenhire to acutally want to keep a decent middle infielder when they come along. I can think of two decent SS that this team has had since Guzman, and both were traded for meager returns in large part because Gardy didn't like them.
    I assume that that the 2 you are referring to were Hardy and Bartlett. With both of those, I don't recall Gardy disliking either of them.

    He did have an issue with Garza and he and Bartlett were packaged to bring in Young, but I don't think that Gardy had an issue with Bartlett.

    Gardy on the other hand did have in issue with Hardy, and that he was too slow and often injured.

  11. #31
    Bartlett is still out there. Should we go after him?

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by SweetOne69 View Post
    I assume that that the 2 you are referring to were Hardy and Bartlett. With both of those, I don't recall Gardy disliking either of them.

    He did have an issue with Garza and he and Bartlett were packaged to bring in Young, but I don't think that Gardy had an issue with Bartlett.

    Gardy on the other hand did have in issue with Hardy, and that he was too slow and often injured.
    Gardy's dislike may not have been personal, but he disliked aspects of both shortstops' game to the extent that it was widely assumed at the time of each trade that he had instigated for it.

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    Rays signed 2B Kelly Johnson to a one-year, $2.45 million contract.

    It's a low-risk deal for Tampa Bay that could potentially yield some high rewards. Johnson hit just .255/.313/.365 in 581 plate appearances last season for the Blue Jays but he has good power and his steady presence at second base will allow Ben Zobrist to exercise his defensive versatility. Johnson may be worth snagging in the later rounds of mixed league fantasy drafts this spring.

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    Rays designated SS Elliot Johnson for assignment.

    The Rays also designated Reid Brignac for assignment on Tuesday, leaving Yunel Escobar on his own at the top of the shortstop depth chart. Johnson, 28, hit just .242/.304/.350 with six home runs and 33 RBI in 331 plate appearances last season for Tampa Bay.

    Source: Marc Topkin on Twitter

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Top Gun View Post
    Rays signed 2B Kelly Johnson to a one-year, $2.45 million contract.

    It's a low-risk deal for Tampa Bay that could potentially yield some high rewards. Johnson hit just .255/.313/.365 in 581 plate appearances last season for the Blue Jays but he has good power and his steady presence at second base will allow Ben Zobrist to exercise his defensive versatility. Johnson may be worth snagging in the later rounds of mixed league fantasy drafts this spring.
    Yeah, Dozier!!! Woo!!!

    Wait, what?

  16. #36
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Sheesh, how did that happen? Again, the Twins, just one of many to miss out there.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    Encouraging indeed, because finding merely an average CF or SS is not that easy to do. Dozier doesn't need to become a star in order to have a huge impact on his team, much like I always viewed Greg Gagne as crucial to the championship teams.
    I had avoided comparing Dozier to Gagne because I'm not sure his defensive ceiling at short will approach what I remember Gagne's ability being, which was maybe just shy of Gold Glove, but very good. He had the disadvantage of his entire career overlapping that of HOF'ers Cal Ripken and Ozzie Smith. Gagne was an above average player, but because he didn't hit 25 dingers a year or perform two cartwheels and a triple Lutz before every throw to first, he was never really given his due. And you're exactly right, quality regulars like Gagne are every bit the building block of champions that star players are.

    So defense aside, here's Dozier's James projection again next to Gagne's career average:

    BD: .253/.300/.372
    GG: .254/.302/.382

    And since it doesn't seem like Dozier shares Gagne's frustrating propensity to chase bad pitches all the way into the stands if necessary to get a bad swing at them, I think 'Dozie' stands to regain some of his 10% or so walk rate from the minors and maybe boost his OBP 10 or even 20 points. That, combined with average or slightly better D at short, would add up to a fine ballplayer, and ease much of the pain of the decade-long revolving door at shortstop. Fingers crossed.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Sheesh, how did that happen? Again, the Twins, just one of many to miss out there.
    Unbelievable. One year deal, chump change, at least an outside chance for a bounceback season, and a leftie who could platoon with Dozier (.500 slugging pct. vs. lefties last year) if Dozier can't handle shortstop. Wouldn't want to block incoming titans like Escobar and Florimon, I guess.

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    I had avoided comparing Dozier to Gagne because I'm not sure his defensive ceiling at short will approach what I remember Gagne's ability being, which was maybe just shy of Gold Glove, but very good.
    My recollection isn't quite the same, that he had his detractors where it came to range, versus the very best of his peers of course. But he was the embodiment of the Twins Way to make sure to make 99% of the routine plays and let the other guys worry about the spectacular plays. Florimon seems to be the opposite of that, I'm not sure where Dozier comes on that spectrum.

    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    Gagne was an above average player, but because he didn't hit 25 dingers a year or perform two cartwheels and a triple Lutz before every throw to first, he was never really given his due.
    When I alluded to "average" CF or SS, I meant starters. Among the full list of major league SS, Gagne definitely was above average.

    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    And you're exactly right, quality regulars like Gagne
    Yeah, that's what he was. A quality regular. Quality. He certainly was a batter that a pitcher could "pitch to", but he also was a batter who could hurt the pitcher who ever took him for granted.

    I checked their heights and weights on baseball-reference.com: Dozier and Gagne are both listed at 5'11" and their weights are 5 pounds apart. Early, but there's a chance for a wickedly close comp between these two players.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    I checked their heights and weights on baseball-reference.com: Dozier and Gagne are both listed at 5'11" and their weights are 5 pounds apart. Early, but there's a chance for a wickedly close comp between these two players.
    Oh no, this could revive the "Berrios as Pedro Martinez 2.0" talk.

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