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Thread: Mackey: Low Risk or Not, Twins are Taking a Philosophical Gamble

  1. #141
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    It's like oldnurse had a son and named him Pseudo...
    Burn!

  2. #142
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
    Look, I know the negativity gets old, but what do you expect? Slashing payroll and signing sub par bargain-bin players to "improve" a team that has lost nearly 100 games in two straight years is a slap in the face for paying fans. People don't enjoy getting slapped in the face.
    There's plenty positive to focus on about this offseason if one chooses too. I think most people would give the Twins positive marks for the offseason moves in total.

  3. #143
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    There's plenty positive to focus on about this offseason if one chooses too. I think most people would give the Twins positive marks for the offseason moves in total.
    How about limiting that to positive marks for just the moves designed to improve the Twins for the future? Cleaner that way, with no need to balance future-building moves against the likes of KC and the Sunshine Band of merry back-o'-the-rotation misfits.

  4. #144
    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    There's plenty positive to focus on about this offseason if one chooses too. I think most people would give the Twins positive marks for the offseason moves in total.
    Most would give positive marks to the Span and Revere trades. I certainly would. But because they dealt away a couple quality players for some good prospects they get a free pass on the rest of the offseason? What else have they done this winter to give you the impression that they even give a damn? For the most pitching-desperate team in baseball, with $25 million in supposedly available payroll, to come away from the FA market with Correia, Pelfrey and Harden is shameful.

  5. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    There's plenty positive to focus on about this offseason if one chooses too. I think most people would give the Twins positive marks for the offseason moves in total.
    Most people liked the trades, but I think to actually get positive marks, you need to make solid improvements in the major league team. What this offseason hasn't come with major question marks, heck, even including the trades?

    Worley recently had surgery,
    Meyer and May may not turn out to be starters.
    Every pitcher we signed is either a #5 starter or is coming off of significant injury.
    They spent no money to improve other positions (middle infield?)
    They now have a big hole in center (though again, I'm fine with the trades) and drastically weakened their OF defense.

    There's no way this offseason could look positive overall right now. In two years, we could be saying it was better, but we could also be saying it was a disaster.

  6. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    There's plenty positive to focus on about this offseason if one chooses too. I think most people would give the Twins positive marks for the offseason moves in total.
    If one chooses to focus on the future, sure. No doubt. Reason to be hopeful with Meyer and May. Key word, hopeful. Nothing is sure. No way to guarantee these moves end up well. But hope...

    When it comes to the current team though, that's where it gets dicey...and that's hard to swallow after the last two years we've had AND getting the new ballpark...the new ballpark that was supposed to stop us from cutting payroll the way we have. That's also hard to swallow when we have so many holes to fill.

  7. #147
    Speediest Moderator All-Star snepp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
    People don't enjoy getting slapped in the face.
    Barney Stinson approves of this post.
    "Maybe you could go grab a bat and ball… and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
    - Strib commenter educating the elitists on the value of RBI's

  8. #148
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    Look, I agree the Twins plan for 2013 looks pretty muddled, but they did acquire Worley and bought low on guys like Pelfry and Harden. Yes, meager given the FAs available and when combined with Correia gives a whole bucketful of meh.

    But these moves didn't occur in isolation, by acquiring Meyers and Mays, the Twins blew away my expectations in what they'd get in future pitching assets. Especially without trading Morneau or Willingham (which is a boon toward 2013, if even a zero-sum non-move).

    My major irritation is with those who use the Correia move (and the narrative around it) as some sort of litmus of the Twins overall plan going forward. That we should remain hopeless about the present and the future until the Twins make a group-think approved big splash (or avoid overpaying for mediocre back-end pitching). There's an undercurrent throughout this thread (and in other long threads) that the Twins don't know what they are doing and that somehow this is a perfectly legitimate and popular assessment. We all have plenty of questions about the Twins FO--if anything, this offseason gives me hope for the future even if it makes me shrug my shoulders at the present.
    Last edited by PseudoSABR; 01-23-2013 at 09:31 PM.

  9. #149
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    Look, I agree the Twins plan for 2013 looks pretty muddled, but they did acquire Worley and bought low on guys like Pelfry and Harden. Yes, meager given the FAs available and when combined with Correia gives a whole bucketful of meh.

    But these moves didn't occur in isolation, by acquiring Meyers and Mays, the Twins blew away my expectations in what they'd get in future pitching assets. Especially without trading Morneau or Willingham (which is a boon toward 2013, if even a zero-sum non-move).

    My major irritation is with those who use the Correia move (and the narrative around it) as some sort of litmus of the Twins overall plan going forward. That we should remain hopeless about the present and the future until the Twins make a group-think approved big splash (or avoid overpaying for mediocre back-end pitching). There's an undercurrent throughout this thread (and in other long threads) that the Twins don't know what they are doing and that somehow this is a perfectly legitimate and popular assessment. We all have plenty of questions about the Twins FO--if anything, this offseason gives me hope for the future even if it makes me shrug my shoulders at the present.
    Well, for me, I've always felt Ryan knows exactly what he's doing...

  10. #150
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    My major irritation is with those who use the Correia move (and the narrative around it) as some sort of litmus of the Twins overall plan going forward.
    What, exactly, should give us hope? Ryan is going to suddenly change his tune? Hell, people thought that about THIS offseason. It's part of the fuel for everyone's annoyance - they wanted to believe this would be different. But it's the same Ryan we've known for many years.

    You're welcome to be hopeful about it. But to quote someone else - we have 10 years of the exact opposite, making that hope completely and utterly baseless.

  11. #151
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post

    My major irritation is with those who use the Correia move (and the narrative around it) as some sort of litmus of the Twins overall plan going forward. That we should remain hopeless about the present and the future until the Twins make a group-think approved big splash (or avoid overpaying for mediocre back-end pitching). There's an undercurrent throughout this thread (and in other long threads) that the Twins don't know what they are doing and that somehow this is a perfectly legitimate and popular assessment. We all have plenty of questions about the Twins FO--if anything, this offseason gives me hope for the future even if it makes me shrug my shoulders at the present.
    The Correia move is the cherry (or something else) on top. The Twins made more interesting FA moves last year that clearly improved the team and managed to do so while cutting their budget. Willingham, Doumit, and Carroll were all solid to good signings.

    However, they were filled with equally puzzling "scout" type moves, especially related but not limited to pitchers: Marquis, Gray, Dozier, Slama (?). The lone success was Burton. To add, their rhetoric around pitcher evaluation is equally puzzling and doesn't strengthen confidence. Whether or not this is a ploy, it's tough to tell, but they don't exactly have a staff that shows it is. Finally, there's the way they've handled injuries (Pavano, Baker).

    Considering their current status at the major league level I don't think the Twins have really done anything to disprove this narrative -- a narrative that is the sum total of all of these things and for which Correia's signing (not even him as much as the contract) becomes a lightning rod for it.
    Last edited by Alex; 01-23-2013 at 09:55 PM.

  12. #152
    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    That we should remain hopeless about the present and the future until the Twins make a group-think approved big splash (or avoid overpaying for mediocre back-end pitching).
    There's a pretty big gap between signing Kevin Correia and a "big splash." You're overstating people's expectations. And while I'm certainly willing to admit that some of the pitchers who signed for more than Correia will be mediocre back-end pitchers, not all will. I'd like to think the Twins' evaluators could put together an educated guess. That is their job, right?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pseudofool
    There's an undercurrent throughout this thread (and in other long threads) that the Twins don't know what they are doing and that somehow this is a perfectly legitimate and popular assessment. We all have plenty of questions about the Twins FO--if anything, this offseason gives me hope for the future even if it makes me shrug my shoulders at the present.
    It's not that I think they don't know what they're doing. I'm sure they have a plan in place. But the fact that their plan causes a hardcore fans like yourself to "shrug (your) shoulders at the present" is beyond disappointing and an insult to guys like Mauer and Morneau if they go out and put together big years.

  13. #153
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR
    There's plenty positive to focus on about this offseason if one chooses too. I think most people would give the Twins positive marks for the offseason moves in total.
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
    Most would give positive marks to the Span and Revere trades. I certainly would. But because they dealt away a couple quality players for some good prospects they get a free pass on the rest of the offseason? What else have they done this winter to give you the impression that they even give a damn? For the most pitching-desperate team in baseball, with $25 million in supposedly available payroll, to come away from the FA market with Correia, Pelfrey and Harden is shameful.
    Nick, this is a post where I am in full agreement with you, don't forget, in addition to the $25M, they also were freed up from their commitment to Span, so, they had well over $30M to build for the future- and build some enthusiasm and hope for the present- cynically choosing not to do so....this from a team that promised us the days of being unable to compete with the big-market teams was over.

    BTW, there's a "boy in the plastic bubble" just above you, apparently lightheaded from the rarefied air pumping through his very own homer dome. Pseudo, I enjoy conversing with you, but this time you've gone 2 compressed oxygen tanks of "positivity" too far.

  14. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alex View Post
    The Correia move is the cherry (or something else) on top. The Twins made more interesting FA moves last year that clearly improved the team and managed to do so while cutting their budget. Willingham, Doumit, and Carroll were all solid to good signings.

    However, they were filled with equally puzzling "scout" type moves, especially related but not limited to pitchers: Marquis, Gray, Dozier, Slama (?). The lone success was Burton. To add, their rhetoric around pitcher evaluation is equally puzzling and doesn't strengthen confidence. Finally, there's the way they've handled injuries (Pavano, Baker). Whether or not this is a ploy, it's tough to tell, but considering their current status at the major league level I don't think the Twins haven't really done anything to disprove this narrative -- the narrative is the sum total of all of these things.
    Those FA signings were nice. Predictable, but nice. Willingham replaced Cuddy, Doumit replaced Kubel. They weren't building onto what we have, they were filling departures. And yes, they cut payroll....which I'd give they credit for if they used those savings to continue to build a contender instead of pocketing it. So, I mean, I can't give them credit on the payroll cutting part of the equation
    Last edited by ThePuck; 01-23-2013 at 10:01 PM.

  15. #155
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Knowing what contracts and trades have happened thus far in MLB, I would really like to hear one of the "Derp the Twins have screwed the pooch this off-season again!" folks lay out a plan on how they would turn this team from a 95 loss team to a 92 win team this off-season (without giving up the future)

    I'm all ears. (Keep in mind that it's highly unlikely that a guy like Dan Haren would have signed here over Washigton for the same contract (for very obvious reasons) so if you are going to include a guy like him in the plan, make sure you take on some extra dollars)

    At the end of the day, the only way the Twins compete is if they get some HUGE contributions from young players like Hicks, Gibson, Dozier and Plouffe. And if Mauer/Morneau/Willingham can all stay healthy and mash. Replacing a guy like Correia with Myers isn't going to be the difference between a 90 loss year and a 90 win year FYI.

    FWIW: I'd still like to see the Twins bring in Marcum. At least then you have a pitching staff that if a few things break right could end up around league average.

  16. #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Knowing what contracts and trades have happened thus far in MLB, I would really like to hear one of the "Derp the Twins have screwed the pooch this off-season again!" folks lay out a plan on how they would turn this team from a 95 loss team to a 92 win team this off-season (without giving up the future)

    .
    No one is saying they could have turned this into a 92 win season. That's just as tiring a counter argument. However, they haven't even really improved them to the point of them hoping to be competitive.

  17. #157
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Knowing what contracts and trades have happened thus far in MLB, I would really like to hear one of the "Derp the Twins have screwed the pooch this off-season again!" folks lay out a plan on how they would turn this team from a 95 loss team to a 92 win team this off-season (without giving up the future
    Not sure anyone is suggesting that. But I'd love Marcum for at least the chance that he'd have a great season and be traded at the deadline for more future ammo. It beats the inevitable "Getting Willingham back from an injury is just like making a trade!" that we'll be doing on Aug. 1.

    In all seriousness, even if you can't improve to a playoff level, putting that 30M into talent gives the team many, many more options both in the immediate future and the near future. And given what will be done with the money otherwise, I don't think that's much to ask.

  18. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Those FA signings were nice. Predictable, but nice. Willingham replaced Cuddy, Doumit replaced Kubel. They weren't building onto what we have, they were filling departures. And yes, they cut payroll....which I'd give they credit for if they used those savings to continue to build a contender instead of pocketing it. So, I mean, I can't give them credit on the payroll cutting part of the equation
    My point in cutting payroll is that these players clearly improved the lineup top down and they did it for good value. Doumit and Willingham were net gains over those two, both of whom thought Target Field should play like the Dome. Doumit turned out to be less of a replacement for Kubel than a replacement for many a Drew Butera game and allowing the Twins a back-up catcher who didn't kill them at the plate.

    I agree with the payroll issue, as well, but my point was that this didn't cost them a lot. This offseason, by comparison, they haven't really made improvements at all.

  19. #159
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alex View Post
    My point in cutting payroll is that these players clearly improved the lineup top down and they did it for good value. Doumit and Willingham were net gains over those two, both of whom thought Target Field should play like the Dome. Doumit turned out to be less of a replacement for Kubel than a replacement for many a Drew Butera game and allowing the Twins a back-up catcher who didn't kill them at the plate.

    I agree with the payroll issue, as well, but my point was that this didn't cost them a lot. This offseason, by comparison, they haven't really made improvements at all.
    I understood what you were saying, I'm just saying, for me, I only give credit for the savings if that money is put back into the payroll. I mean, yeah, from a bottom line financial look, sure...but as a fan, taking that money and putting it in their pockets...

    In other words, I wasn't really meaning to take a shot at you...just saying how I looked at it.

    As far as Doumit's role. I believe when he was signed, the point was to replace Kubel. When the doctors came out and said Morny needs to cut down in the field for awhile to avoid concussion symptoms coming back, the plan changed since that made Mauer needing to play 1B more (as the best option to do so)
    Last edited by ThePuck; 01-23-2013 at 10:16 PM.

  20. #160
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alex View Post
    No one is saying they could have turned this into a 92 win season. That's just as tiring a counter argument. However, they haven't even really improved them to the point of them hoping to be competitive.
    If you don't have a team that you can build that can conceivably win 90-92 games, then what is the point of spending a bunch of improving them to be a 78-84 win team best case scenario? If Hicks/Gibson/etc come out and look good, then you take a run at things! You don't just waste money on 2-3 year contracts at this point for the sake of trying to compete if everything goes right. I agree that they should have signed some more one year contracts, and I still think they should go after guys like Marcum/Saunders/Kelly Johnson on such deals.

    If anything, I give Ryan credit for realizing this is most likely a rebuilding year, instead of going out and trying to just make a bunch of bad signings (Correia excluded- but even his contract isn't that bad relatively)

    Best case scenario is guys like Hendriks/Worley/Diamond/Gibson/Pelfrey/Parmelee/Hicks/Morneau/Plouffe/Dozier etc all preform well out of the gate, THEN you can go out and try to add some more pieces if necessary.

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