01-18-2013, 10:23 AM #1
Article: Drew Butera and Defensive Prowess
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=...ensive-Prowess
01-18-2013, 10:38 AM #2
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Another great breakdown, Drew better frame that article, his agent couldn't have done a better service for him.
While it is a compelling case to retain Butera, it seems to me all the other 3rd catchers that are released yearly, are generally regarded as having no offense but "defensive prowess." There will proabably be a dozen guys like Butera waiting to catch on with a team over the next couple of months.
01-18-2013, 10:44 AM #3
I think that we have to stop looking at him as the #3 catcher. He is the backup catcher on most days. It allows Gardy to keep Mauer and Doumit in the lineup most days. He was up last year for all but about a month, and he only had about 120 plate appearances. $700,000 is closer to the league-minimum of $480,000 than it is the $1 million.
I like looking at pop time. I think framing pitches is important. I don't think it leads to wins, at least not many. I think controlling the run game is important. He's got a strong arm. I think that, for the role he was used in in 2012, he's worth that amount.
I also think that Chris Herrmann will be more ready later in the year. He'll be able to play a bit more as he can catch, but he can also play the outfield well, and he played in the infield in college. He can provide more versatility while not matching Butera's defense.
01-18-2013, 10:49 AM #4
01-18-2013, 11:04 AM #5
I don't place much faith in "Framing Pitches" to influence Strikes and Balls. I have serious doubts how often the Ump actually sees the glove.
Standing behind the catcher will block the view of the glove quite often.
However, I do believe in Pop to Pop time as being important and more so... I believe that the ability of a catcher to call a game, handle his battery mate, QB the cuts, block and handle pitches out of the zone, defensive leadership and the prep work done by catchers in the film room is huge.
A Solid Defensive Catcher plays a big role on a baseball team. However, I admit that I don't know how Butera does on all of these important areas in comparison to Mauer and Doumit or others around the league.
01-18-2013, 11:05 AM #6
There are plenty of reasons to like Butera, defensive prowess probably being the biggest one. If Herrmann is ready during the season, it's not like it will hurt the Twins to eat a couple-hundred thousand dollars. It's hardly over league minimum.
01-18-2013, 11:09 AM #7I don't place much faith in "Framing Pitches" to influence Strikes and Balls. I have serious doubts how often the Ump actually sees the glove.
I think framing pitches is important. I don't think it leads to wins, at least not many.
01-18-2013, 11:13 AM #8
But the Twins know that Hermann is good enough to be a second catcher, maybe even a starting catcher on some teams. He's more valuable to teams that don't have a Mauer and a Doumit in front of him for playing time.
01-18-2013, 11:24 AM #9
Not nearly enough prowess to overcome this....
"Maybe you could go grab a bat and ball… and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
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01-18-2013, 11:29 AM #10
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Last edited by ThePuck; 01-18-2013 at 11:34 AM.
01-18-2013, 11:30 AM #11
Sure, Butera is crushed by wRC+, but where does he rank on wAC+?*
*winning attitude created
01-18-2013, 11:30 AM #12
Anyway... I'm not discounting framing totally... Just personally... I question it. I think the ump has made his mind up at the crossing of the plate.
I do agree that a loud catcher could break some ties the wrong way on borderline calls. Enough to make a difference... I'm not so sure.
That's just my thoughts... nothing more... nothing less...
What I'd like to see is Strikes and Ball data per catcher. What was the Twins pitching staff percentage of strikes thrown with each catcher. If that data produces some striking differences... We may have something to look into furthur.
01-18-2013, 11:30 AM #13
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The question should be....is his defense so good that it offsets his offense, more or less than Herrmann?
01-18-2013, 11:32 AM #14
People who believe otherwise need to take another look at Snepp's screenshot. Butera is historically bad with the stick. It would be hard to overcome that deficit if he was not only an above-average catcher but also pitched the ball to himself at a league-average clip.
01-18-2013, 11:34 AM #15
Just for clarification... I'm not going to use my experience as a guide for the MLB Umpire. Apple and Oranges. I Ump just to help out at the high school level.
01-18-2013, 11:38 AM #16
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And yes, you make your decision on where the ball crosses the plate, but if that pitcher is consistently hitting the glove without it having to move...over and over and over again...he'll normally get the benefit of the doubt by many umpires
Last edited by ThePuck; 01-18-2013 at 11:42 AM.
01-18-2013, 11:39 AM #17Less. Less. LESS.
People who believe otherwise need to take another look at Snepp's screenshot.
My main point is I want someone smarter than me to come up with some push-button analyses that helps tell me how good he is at framing, controlling the run game, etc...
01-18-2013, 11:42 AM #18
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As long as the alternative is Doumit, and as long as Doumit keeps dipping his head on borderline pitches and losing strike calls, he is a serious framing liability. Bobbing your head would seem like a simple thing to correct but either Doumit isn't aware he does it (because no one's pointed it out to him), or he's tried but just can't stop himself doing it. And Butera doesn't do it. This isn't a staff that can groove fastballs down the middle of the plate. They will need to get borderline calls. Especially Worley, who relies so heavily on called strike 3's.
And, as run scoring goes down, the value of a stolen base goes up, and the risk of getting caught goes down. Ergo, teams ran more in 2012 and I would expect them to run even more next year.
Incidentally, the Twins would do well to run a little more themselves.
The Changing Caught-Stealing Calculus | FanGraphs Baseball
01-18-2013, 11:42 AM #19
"But the Twins know that Hermann is good enough to be a second catcher, maybe even a starting catcher on some teams. He's more valuable to teams that don't have a Mauer and a Doumit in front of him for playing time."
Based on? He had a good year at AA last year. I'm a big Herrmann fan, but I see no harm in him getting a couple of months in AAA. I am wondering what teams he would be starting for... and also, if you believe he is that good, why would you want him to come up to play one in four games?
01-18-2013, 11:46 AM #20