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Thread: SI: Twins Winter Report Card is a B-

  1. #41
    Super Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Going into the off season... I was hoping for One upper tier FA Pitcher... One Young Traded for Pitcher that is ready for the MLB and a bunch of affordable of FA pitchers. I wasn't worried about MI at all.

    I have not gotten my upper tier wish.
    I did get Worley in a trade
    and... Pelfrey, Harden, Correia qualify for my bunch of affordable FA Pitchers.

    Meyer and May were bonus pickups.

    B Minus... Sounds like a decent grade for me. Without Meyer and May... I would be in the C minus area.

  2. #42
    Senior Member Triple-A Steve Lein's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    See, this is where I disagree with you. I think we're forgetting just how awful last years pitching staff was. Pelfrey/Correia is a huge improvement. Last year we gave 88 starts and about 457ip to several pitchers (Blackburn, Marquis, Pavano, Walters, Duensing, Vasquez, Swarzak and Liriano) who combined for nearly a negative 8 WAR in those starts.

    If Correia puts up a 2010 Blackburn line (26 starts, 75 ERA+, 160ip, -0.5 WAR, 14 QS), Pelfrey just mimics his 2011 season (33 starts, 78 ERA+, 190ip, 0.0 WAR, 15 QS) and Worley puts up a modest season (29 starts, 99 ERA+, 180 ip, 1.0 WAR, 15 QS), that covers all 88 starts, takes nearly75 innings from the bullpen and adds about 8.5 WAR to the pitching staff. And that's not asking for a ton from the new guys.

    I didn't love the Correia signing but I was ok with the Pelfrey and Harden deals. Saunders would be a nice addition. But I think we're ignoring how much of an improvement we've gotten just from getting professional starts. I'm also very interested in how Hendriks pitches for us next year. He was just abysmal last year (16 starts, 73 ERA+, 85.1ip, -1.2 WAR, 5 QS).
    I guess you're more optimistic about this pitching staff than I. With Pelfrey, Worley, and Correia coming to the AL from the NL, I see a general dip in their performance compared to ones you hope they match. Worley hasn't thrown more than 130 innings yet, Pelfrey won't reach that many innings unless he's on the staff to start the season (which doesn't sound like he will be), and frankly, I think Correia is going to get Marquis-ed or Blackburn-ed (I do hope I'm wrong about that), which leads us right back to those same guys who we had to rely on last year.

    Will this group post a better team starter ERA than 5.40? Yeah, it's kind of impossible not too (knock on wood), but when you have the 2nd worst staff in all of baseball you can't expect a significant improvement without going after upper echelon talent which is significantly better than what you already had. I don't think these guys are, and even if they shave a full run off that team ERA, they still would be below the MLB average starter ERA, which was 4.19 last year.
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  3. #43
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    I'd give them an incomplete.

    They addressed a long-term need in the pitching staff, took a big gamble on the 2013 starting rotation, did nothing to improve the middle infield and gambled with the top of the line-up and outfield defense.

    It is really pretty futile to try to assign a grade at this point -- there's just too much gambling going on (and no particularly good odds). If I had to assign them a grade, it would probably be a C but overall, I think that this franchise has a lot of work yet to do (for this season and beyond).

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Lein View Post
    I guess you're more optimistic about this pitching staff than I. With Pelfrey, Worley, and Correia coming to the AL from the NL, I see a general dip in their performance compared to ones you hope they match. Worley hasn't thrown more than 130 innings yet, Pelfrey won't reach that many innings unless he's on the staff to start the season (which doesn't sound like he will be), and frankly, I think Correia is going to get Marquis-ed or Blackburn-ed (I do hope I'm wrong about that), which leads us right back to those same guys who we had to rely on last year.
    They NL to AL thing has gotten better the last three years. Still a difference but not as much. You could argue that the NL East has just as good lineups, even with pitchers, as the AL central. And Worley is going from a bandbox to a better pitcher's park. You can make all the numbers I suggested a bit worse (and I didn't suggest even a better than average season for any of them) and they'd still easily cover those 88 starts I mentioned. And it could work the other way, too. Maybe Correia does tank but maybe Worley puts up a much better season than suggested to off put that. Worley is a good pitcher.

    Injuries are an issue with everyone but I'm not overly worried about it. Worley always threw a lot of innings in the minors, his rookie year he threw 180+ between the majors and minors, suggesting a 30 inning increase over last year isn't out of line and still permits one trip to the DL. Pelfrey might not match his 2011 innings but he could very easily be better in most other categories. I don't love the Correia signing and I hope we add Saunders but by just giving guys like Worley, Pelfrey and Correia a bunch of starts, the team is significantly better. It would be almost impossible for any of those guys to be as bad as last years back end crud was. I'm least confident in Correia but I'd rather give him 25 starts than give those starts to a combination of Walters, Duensing and Vasquez.

    Anyhow, that covers (in theory) 88 starts. Assume Diamond covers 27 starts at something similar to last year, that leaves 47 starts for others. Hendriks started 16 last year and was horrible. He'll get another chance, hopefully he's better. That leaves 31 starts that Deduno and De Vries combined on last year (31 starts, 167ip, about a 96 ERA+, 0.7 WAR 15 QS). Those will be taken by Deduno and Gibson this year. Adding Saunders to the rotation would help, too. But even without him, it's hard to see how the rotation isn't significantly improved simply by not having Liriano and Blackburn in the rotation.
    Last edited by gunnarthor; 01-18-2013 at 02:14 PM.

  5. #45
    Senior Member Triple-A Steve Lein's Avatar
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    All of those are fair points. We also have to take into account the Twins current team defense. They aren't the type of Twins team we remember from the 2000's anymore, who were near the top of MLB every season, they are now a poor defensive team. Bad in the OF corners and bad all over the infield. This will also affect those numbers.

    Florimon and Escobar are better fielders than we've tried to put out there the last 2 season, but they also have to hit some to stay, which they haven't done.
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  6. #46
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    Each of these guys has won (at least) 10 games before in a season and there is nothing concrete that says they can't again.
    Drew Butera once hit a homerun in a game. There is nothing concrete to say he can't do that every game for an entire season.

  7. #47
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    They could sign Johnson or Sanchez to play 2B and Saunders to pitch and one of the available relievers out there pretty cheep and maybe Posidnek to compete for the CF spot and that would improve the grade for next year and beyond. and I think that can all be done for less than 10 million added to next season payroll.

    The trades were good the inexpensive pitching was ok Harden and Pelfry. Corriea was the only bad mark but other areas not fully addressed. CF is with Hicks, but if Hicks and or Parmalee prove to not be ready we need another OF till Arcia is ready or Parmalee or Hicks are ready for 2nd go round.

    MI is a disaster offensively. I hope FLorimon can field as either SS or 2b will be a black hole otherwise. as Carroll can only play 1 position.

    Inge would be nice on a minorleague contract to push at 3B. There are tons of bullpen options available hope we get one at a reasonable price but ok if we don't.

  8. #48
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer FrodaddyG's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandon View Post
    They could sign Johnson or Sanchez to play 2B and Saunders to pitch and one of the available relievers out there pretty cheep and maybe Posidnek to compete for the CF spot and that would improve the grade for next year and beyond. and I think that can all be done for less than 10 million added to next season payroll.

    The trades were good the inexpensive pitching was ok Harden and Pelfry. Corriea was the only bad mark but other areas not fully addressed. CF is with Hicks, but if Hicks and or Parmalee prove to not be ready we need another OF till Arcia is ready or Parmalee or Hicks are ready for 2nd go round.

    MI is a disaster offensively. I hope FLorimon can field as either SS or 2b will be a black hole otherwise. as Carroll can only play 1 position.

    Inge would be nice on a minorleague contract to push at 3B. There are tons of bullpen options available hope we get one at a reasonable price but ok if we don't.
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  9. #49
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    I think that B- is fair. The trades were close to A, the Correia signing was an F, and the Harden and Pelfrey signings (if they regain their form and can be flipped for useful parts or extended mid-season) have a lot of potential with little risk.
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  10. #50
    Super Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandon View Post
    They could sign Johnson or Sanchez to play 2B and Saunders to pitch and one of the available relievers out there pretty cheep and maybe Posidnek to compete for the CF spot
    I hope they don't sign Podsednik in particular. Not just because of the weak offense he brings, but the rash of misspellings in fan postings all season will make my head explode like FrodaddyG's.

    Oh, and B+ for an offseason grade, for staying the course for the long haul but not shoring up things for 2013 any better.

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Drew Butera once hit a homerun in a game. There is nothing concrete to say he can't do that every game for an entire season.
    You went from a seasons production to comparing a game to a seasons production. OK
    All your evaluation is based on what the players have done in a past season at some point. Why can't players ever get back close to their old form / self? I didn't ask for Cy Young Seasons - I said 10 win seasons from each. I don't see that as an impossibility for any of them. Maybe a stretch to ask from each of them (pitcher), but stranger seasons have occurred.
    2012 - A's - O's - White Sox
    2010 - Reds
    2008 - Rays

    Why is it so hard for you to believe in your home team? Is it because they haven't been to the playoffs in 2 seasons?

  12. #52
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    Why is it so hard for you to believe in your home team? Is it because they haven't been to the playoffs in 2 seasons?
    Because of their serious lack of talent. They moved two significant offensive players from a mediocre group last year and did nothing to replace them with anything other than major question marks. They added "meh" to "easily replaceable" talent to an awful pitching staff of a team that nearly lost 100 games twice in a row. There are serious questions about a number of players maintaining their production last year.

    I don't need to believe they can win a WS to enjoy them. I love the Twins, will always be a fan, but that doesn't entail delusion. If you have to be delusional to be a fan, good for you. I don't.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big City View Post
    My point was that these offseason grades assume all things are equal but in reality, they're not. The Twins are operating on a different budget then the Dodgers, Red Sox, Angels, Cubs, etc. If it was ownership's directive for the Twins to have a payroll of $65 million, then shouldn't these moves be considered an A since we've been able to fill our rotation with serviceable talent and add a couple of top of the rotation prospects for the future?

    P.S. Do you ever have anything substantial to add to the conversation other than snide half-sentences?
    If it was ownership's directive to have a $65 million payroll, TR should have gone into Jim Pohlad's office and thrown things and/or quit. But I highly doubt that was the directive. The time for 'we're a small market club' as the stock excuse is past. The Twins are at worst a mid-market club and can afford a payroll of $90-$110 million.

    TR has his strong points, but navigating free agency and/or getting ownership to spend when needed are not among them. I generally think the Pohlad's will OK a signing if the GM makes it clear that it's needed. He is not contrained by anyone but himself, IMO and should have done better for the pitching staff than he has. C- at best.

  14. #54
    Senior Member All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    I'll wait until 2016 to make a judgment on this offseason.

  15. #55
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Upon further review and the fact that Ryan handed Butera a $700K scholarship, B- is way too generous
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  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    I think that B- is fair. The trades were close to A, the Correia signing was an F, and the Harden and Pelfrey signings (if they regain their form and can be flipped for useful parts or extended mid-season) have a lot of potential with little risk.
    What does history tell us of T.J. surgerys? usally it takes 6 months for the rust to wear off and the 2nd year is when you see the results, so dont expect much from Pelfrey , as for Harden he hasnt pitched in the majors since? 2009.
    As for Correia he should have been A 1 year contract while the other 2 should have been 1 year with an option.

  17. #57
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    What does history tell us of T.J. surgerys? usally it takes 6 months for the rust to wear off and the 2nd year is when you see the results, so dont expect much from Pelfrey , as for Harden he hasnt pitched in the majors since? 2009.
    As for Correia he should have been A 1 year contract while the other 2 should have been 1 year with an option.
    Harden pitched hurt in 2011 (with his shoulder hanging from a thread practically) and his velocity was higher than any Twins starter the last um few years and his performance was better than any Twins starter the last couple seasons. Check this video out of Harden pitching in 2011, if you want

    As far as TJ surgeries go: Gibson had his around September 2011 and he had a great latter part of 2012. Pelfrey had his around April of 2012 so I think that there is no reason to worry about 2013. He can be really good.

    The Correia contract should had not been. Not even a year. Just like the Butera contract.
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  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    I'm with SI and the B-
    Great Trades for Meyers & Mays (future #1 & #3 respectively) B+

    The potential rotation of:
    Diamond 10+ Wins - Worley 10+ Wins - Pelfrey 10+ Wins - Harden 10+ Wins - Corriea 10+ Wins -
    Each of these guys has won (at least) 10 games before in a season and there is nothing concrete that says they can't again.
    Throw in call up spot starts for these 2 & Gipson 5+ Wins - Henriks 5+ Wins & Relievers 10+ Wins
    The next thing you know we are flirting with .500 and we are last years White Sox. History nor Sabers didn't have the A's winning the West last year either. Don't Be That Band Wagon Fan
    30+ wins from Correia, Harden, and Pelfrey. Got it.

  19. #59
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer FrodaddyG's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by edavis0308 View Post
    30+ wins from Correia, Harden, and Pelfrey. Got it.
    Stop doubting, you bandwagon fan!!! There's no reason they can't!!!

  20. #60
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FrodaddyG View Post
    Stop doubting, you bandwagon fan!!! There's no reason they can't!!!
    Clearly he doesn't believe hard enough. What we all need to be a bit more Disneyfied, that'll help for sure!

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