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Thread: Article: The Fifth Starter

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    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    Article: The Fifth Starter


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    I'd like to see Gibson start in AAA, much for the same reason I'd have liked to have seen Dozier, Parmalee last year (and Hicks this year, too, though I know we disagree on that one) start and have success in AAA before moving up. With the way this team is shaping up, there's no reason not to make sure these guys are ready.

    Frankly, to see how the Twins were going to mold their pitching staff was one of the most exciting things about this offseason, but when we make one exciting, interesting addition (Worley) and our #3 starter is one of the worst pitchers in baseball, who starts behind him among those I listed below is relatively moot, not to mention depressing. I have hope for Hendriks, but he's struggled, but I don't see how they deny him a spot in this rotation.

    I'd pick one of the guys that pitched last year like Deduno or Devries, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's Duensing or Swarzak as a short term hold out.

    How exciting is that? That sound I hear the summer breeze gently brushing 20,000 empty seats.....

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Good article and I think you are right about those four. And I agree with those four (given the obvious Correia disclaimer). Pelfrey won't be ready. And I believe that since Kyle Gibson is going to be on an innings limit, there is no reason to not keep him at AAA on a stronger innings limit there. I would rather have him from June through September than shut in down in August (just in case some miracle happens and Miguel Cabrera gets injured for the year (or Prince or Justin) and the Twins are not terrible eventually in the season later on). That would leave, for April, Rich Harden, Sam Deduno, and Cole DeVries left to honestly vie for the 5th spot in the rotation. That is not great, but it isn't nearly as bad as the April 2012 situation ended up being.

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    Devries, It's too bad the Twins won't sign a couple more pitchers, because I don't even see one of the starting five making it a full season.

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    DeVries was pretty consistant last year. He just can't pitch deep into games very often. I would like to see him get 4-6 starts to see if he can continue to improve and make a go of it for a few seasons.

    I have no interest in seeing Duensing or Swarzak start, Dedunno is also deserving of a few starts too, unless the Twins decide to add another starting pitcher .

    Gibson needs to start in the minors. At least thats how i feel at this moment. I am ok with him starting in the majors as he will be limited and could be shut down by August.

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    I think Gibson starts the season in the BP. I think that's the best way for Kyle to get his feet wet slowly while truly limiting his innings for the first 6 weeks of the season. I think they want him working with Andy and Bobby from day 1. My money is on Duensing starting the season in the rotation and going to the BP when Gibson enters the rotation. Remember the Twins told Duensing and Swarzak to prepare as if they were going to be starters in the coming season. The Twins bounce Duensing from the rotation to the BP or vice a versa every season why would this year be any different?

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    Harden if he's healthy. He has #1 or #2 stuff. Would like to see Correia take Swarzak's spot, and have Gibson and Pelfrey in the rotation.
    Expect it to be Hendricks, but this may be his last chance as more talent is coming up the chain fairly rapidly.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
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    I find it very difficult to believe that Harden will be ready.
    Deduno is a wild card, but his numbers for Sept/Oct were pretty good. I'd like to see what he can do in the starting rotation.
    I really like Duensing, but he has too much trouble with RH batters.

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    I agree with the starting predictions for the most part, baring any injuries Diamond, Worley, Correia, and Hendriks should start the season in the rotation. The fifth spot will go to someone that wasn't mentioned in the article Rich Harden. However, If he hasn't completely recovered from rotator cuff surgery or has any setbacks I hope Deduno can follow-up on his strong finish last season and win the final spot.

    By the time Pelfrey is ready to take a spot in the rotation (May/June) either Harden will be injured or Correia will have pitched so poorly they will move him to the bullpen. Gibson will be ready to start on the big league club around the all-star break taking the spot of whoever has been the least effective by the mid-summer classic.

    Post all-star game rotation: Diamond, Worley, Pelfrey, Gibson, Hendriks (Deduno would be the replacement if any of these pitchers are injured)

  10. #10
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    Yeah, I'm a little surprised Harden wouldn't even be mentioned as a possibility. Is he likely to claim that spot? Probably not, but I really don't think there is anyone you'd say is "likely" at this point. If I had to bet money, I'd probably go with DeVries or Deduno, but I'd want some odds, regardless of who I picked. There is no clear favorite.

    On Blackburn, everyone seems to write that this surgery rules him out, but does it? Wasn't it arthroscopic surgery on his wrist or forearm? Laid up 6 weeks leads him to last week of February. I have no idea, but is it really impossible that he would be recovered five weeks after that? Again, he isn't "likely" to be in the opening rotation and certainly less likely than some others, but are we being too quick to rule it out?

    EDIT: I also just want to say that with all the piling on people (including myself at times) have done on Correia, I'm starting to seriously root for the guy to do well and shut us all up.
    Last edited by Jim Crikket; 01-16-2013 at 08:57 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fairweather View Post
    I think Gibson starts the season in the BP. I think that's the best way for Kyle to get his feet wet slowly while truly limiting his innings for the first 6 weeks of the season. I think they want him working with Andy and Bobby from day 1. My money is on Duensing starting the season in the rotation and going to the BP when Gibson enters the rotation. Remember the Twins told Duensing and Swarzak to prepare as if they were going to be starters in the coming season. The Twins bounce Duensing from the rotation to the BP or vice a versa every season why would this year be any different?
    I think that this is the worst thing that you can do to Gibson. But putting him in the BP he loses arm strength and it messes with his routine as he has no idea if/when he is going to pitch.

    With all reports of him being on a 140-150 innings limit, by letting him pitch in AAA you can better control his innings limit without killing your bullpen. You let him pitch 4-5 innings/start for 2 months (10 starts), then when you bring him up in June he can still have 100 innings remaining and can go 5-6 innings out of the gate. That way he can stay in his routine of pitching every 5th game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Crikket View Post
    EDIT: I also just want to say that with all the piling on people (including myself at times) have done on Correia, I'm starting to seriously root for the guy to do well and shut us all up.
    I hear you, I pile on as much as anyone and I can recognize we aren't giving him a fair chance. I think it's safe to say that any vitriol directed at Correia is misguided as we are actually just disappointed in the poor decision by the front office and not the man himself.

    Still if he proves us wrong and succeeds, Terry Ryan won't learn from this and it may encourage him to make similar signings in the future.

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    I like the idea of Gibson as the 5th starter and here's why: it's a way for him to pitch through September without over-stressing his arm and keeping him to a reasonable innings count. As the 5th starter he'll get skipped occasionally, giving him some breaks throughout the year, but it'll give him a chance to prove that he can make it through a long season and prepared him to move up and be a #2 starter in 2014.

    Harden is the other possibility: being the 5th guy might be the best way to keep his ragged arm healthy too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jmlease1 View Post
    I like the idea of Gibson as the 5th starter and here's why: it's a way for him to pitch through September without over-stressing his arm and keeping him to a reasonable innings count. As the 5th starter he'll get skipped occasionally, giving him some breaks throughout the year, but it'll give him a chance to prove that he can make it through a long season and prepared him to move up and be a #2 starter in 2014.

    Harden is the other possibility: being the 5th guy might be the best way to keep his ragged arm healthy too.
    Gardy rarely skips pitchers. The fifth starter would start every 5th game just like the #1 starter.

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    I would hope for Deduno. His historical stats tell his story correctly so we know what we are getting but at least the upside is there. If he somehow could gain a bit more control then he could be effective. With Devries you dont have that. Neither are a long term solution but if i have to choose then I am going with the higher upside.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SweetOne69 View Post
    With all reports of him being on a 140-150 innings limit, .
    I've been wondering about this a lot and haven't seen any reports at all. There was a gap in my coverage, though, so maybe I missed it. Where has this been covered?

  17. #17
    Senior Member Triple-A Steve Lein's Avatar
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    I'm a little concerned Rich Harden's name didn't even show up in your article... I'd rather have him in the rotation over anyone else not named Diamond/Worley until it's proven he can not do it (which I hope doesn't happen).
    Scouting Report: Tools - Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)
    Spring Training Regular since 2011.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Crikket View Post
    On Blackburn, everyone seems to write that this surgery rules him out, but does it? Wasn't it arthroscopic surgery on his wrist or forearm? Laid up 6 weeks leads him to last week of February. I have no idea, but is it really impossible that he would be recovered five weeks after that? Again, he isn't "likely" to be in the opening rotation and certainly less likely than some others, but are we being too quick to rule it out?
    Wouldn't it likely take a while after being in a cast just to get up strength and put him a fair amount behind? I've actually never been in a cast (knock on wood), so I'm guessing from some anecdotal experience but mostly ignorance here.

  19. #19
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I hear you, I pile on as much as anyone and I can recognize we aren't giving him a fair chance. I think it's safe to say that any vitriol directed at Correia is misguided as we are actually just disappointed in the poor decision by the front office and not the man himself.

    Still if he proves us wrong and succeeds, Terry Ryan won't learn from this and it may encourage him to make similar signings in the future.
    Or... if he proves us wrong and succeeds, maybe we'll have to admit Terry Ryan is better at judging baseball talent than we are.

    Nah... that'll never happen.
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

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  20. #20
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDog View Post
    Wouldn't it likely take a while after being in a cast just to get up strength and put him a fair amount behind? I've actually never been in a cast (knock on wood), so I'm guessing from some anecdotal experience but mostly ignorance here.
    It would certainly put Blackburn behind, but I'm just questioning whether it puts him so far behind that he couldn't possibly regain strength and command in five weeks time. If this happened during the season, I guess I envision a pitcher spending 2-3 weeks after cast removal rehabbing and then getting 2-3 starts in the minors on rehab assignment. But, like you, I'm just guessing, too. I don't have a clue what his injury even was and how long it should be expected to take to recover fully.
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

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