View Poll Results: Will Mauer Be Better Or Worse In 2013?

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Thread: Article: For Better Or Worse: Joe Mauer

  1. #1
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    Article: For Better Or Worse: Joe Mauer


  2. #2
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    If the numbers last year were worse than his career averages, how can he "regress to the mean"?

    I know you meant league averages, but there really is no reason to believe he will do that. His game is based on smart hitting and is not one demensional. He will be an elite hitter for a few years yet. The Doumit/Mauer platoon behind the plate will help to keep both players healthier in the long run.

    Mauer will be better in 2013.

  3. #3
    Mauer will be better this year because getting him out from behind the plate more keeps him healthier. The numbers show that and he does not have to worry about the offensive drop with Doumit behind the plate.

  4. #4
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    Mauer was right around his career averages last year. I imagine he'll be about the same this year, maybe a touch better.

    And, while he was slightly below his career averages in BA/SLG% and OPS, he was over his career averages in OBP and OPS+. And, as usual, his numbers w/RISP were very, very good. I'd be very happy if he could do what he did last year every year for the rest of his career
    Last edited by ThePuck; 01-08-2013 at 08:35 AM.

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    The fact that Joe rebounded from his disastrous 2011 season so well didn't surprise me. I think it did shut up a number of Mauer bashers. He is getting older, but also wiser, and he knows how much time he can spend behind the plate and maintain his excellence as a hitter. Too bad the Twins had no foresight when they traded Ramos for Capps. It doesn't take a genius to know that a 6'5" catcher can't squat forever. But, I think he will continue to dominate at the plate, and win another batting title this year. I look forward to watching him hit, and hope by some miracle that this weird mix of pitchers that TR has assembled will do better than last year's patchwork mess.

  6. #6
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    Hopefully with some fresh blood in the coaching pool will help the whole lineup prove a bit. I'm happy with a repeat of last season (minus all the darn double plays he hit into).

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden View Post
    If the numbers last year were worse than his career averages, how can he "regress to the mean"?...
    "Regress to the mean" does not mean "get worse" or "become more like the average ballplayer". It is any return to his average, provided the initial sample size is large enough. So Mauer can regress from an .861 OPS to an .873 OPS. Granted, Mauer's epic 2009 campaign skews his career averages, but so does his injury plagued 2011, which means his mean [with the rest of his career taken into account] is ".873". The problem, referenced by his age 30 season, is that ballplayer become less effective the older they get [exceptions due to "the clear" and "the clear" notwithstanding]. Age also makes coming back from injuries more labor intensive and longer [again, exceptions due to "the clear" and "the clear" notwithstanding].

    In sum, after the last two years, if Mauer were to "regress" to his mean, he would improve, but the effect of age may make what he is typically capable of may decrease his mean.

    Sidenote--considering his position, I don't like his batted ball profile as he ages.

  8. #8
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Boom Boom's Avatar
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    Positional flexibility or not, Mauer was unusually healthy last year and I don't think that will hold up. I predict he'll land on the DL at least once.

  9. #9
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    From '05-'10, only one player whose primary position is catcher had more games played (whether that player did it at catcher or elsewhere) than Mauer and none had more plate appearances.

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    Mauer will be statistically worse this year simply because the Twins lost their best two options to hit in front of him in the lineup. Parker had a terrific breakdown of how well Mauer utilized the positioning of the infielders when a runner was on base, those oppotunities will likely be decreased without Span and Revere batting in front of him. His OBP/OPS likely would also take a hit as he had a high percentage of intentional walks last year with Span standing on 2B, those will likely decrease considering the internal options for the top of the order likely will not reach 2B as often.

  11. #11
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Boom Boom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    From '05-'10, only one player whose primary position is catcher had more games played (whether that player did it at catcher or elsewhere) than Mauer and none had more plate appearances.
    Not many catchers are good enough hitters to DH when they're not catching.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boom Boom View Post
    Not many catchers are good enough hitters to DH when they're not catching.
    That's true, but he was still playing...and if we had some bad arse DH (like Ortiz, for example), he wouldn't have DH'd as much and he'd have played more catcher. DHing Mauer is a luxury Gardy has (and thank goodness Joe hits as well as he does so it's not a hinderence when he does DH), but if Gardy couldn't DH him, he'd be catching more to keep his bat in the lineup. Additionally, if Gardy didn't have an overwhelming desire to play backups as much as he does (day games after night games, games where we took the 1st two games of a three game series, Sundays) or carry three catchers, he'd have more games played and more games behind the plate for his career as well.
    Last edited by ThePuck; 01-08-2013 at 11:03 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    His OBP/OPS likely would also take a hit as he had a high percentage of intentional walks last year with Span standing on 2B, those will likely decrease considering the internal options for the top of the order likely will not reach 2B as often.
    I don't think the intentional walks are as big a part of his arsenal as you're implying there. If you eliminated every single one from last year, his OBP drops like six points.

  14. #14
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    'His OBP/OPS likely would also take a hit as he had a high percentage of intentional walks last year with Span standing on 2B, those will likely decrease considering the internal options for the top of the order likely will not reach 2B as often.'

    And you just assume all of those IBB would have been outs? Besides he only had 10 IBB for the whole season, and only 5 had Span at 2B. Either way, his OBP would take a very, very slight hit even if all those IBBs in that scenario turned into outs (which is a big assumption). 5 IBBs in 641 plate appearance.
    Last edited by ThePuck; 01-08-2013 at 11:19 AM.

  15. #15
    Super Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    That's true, but he was still playing...and if we had some bad arse DH (like Ortiz, for example), he wouldn't have DH'd as much and he'd have played more catcher. DHing Mauer is a luxury Gardy has (and thank goodness Joe hits as well as he does so it's not a hinderence when he does DH), but if Gardy couldn't DH him, he'd be catching more to keep his bat in the lineup. Additionally, if Gardy didn't have an overwhelming desire to play backups as much as he does (day games after night games, games where we took the 1st two games of a three game series, Sundays) or carry three catchers, he'd have more games played and more games behind the plate for his career as well.
    Huh? Gardenhire could have used Mauer more behind the plate, but simply decided not to?

    I'm...skeptical, to put it mildly.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Huh? Gardenhire could have used Mauer more behind the plate, but simply decided not to?

    I'm...skeptical, to put it mildly.
    Not sure why you would be skeptical, but okay. You think every time over his career he benched Mauer or moved him to DH cause he HAD to?

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    'His OBP/OPS likely would also take a hit as he had a high percentage of intentional walks last year with Span standing on 2B, those will likely decrease considering the internal options for the top of the order likely will not reach 2B as often.'

    And you just assume all of those IBB would have been outs? Besides he only had 10 IBB for the whole season, and only 5 had Span at 2B. Either way, his OBP would take a very, very slight hit even if all those IBBs in that scenario turned into outs (which is a big assumption). 5 IBBs in 641 plate appearance.
    Ok forget about the throwaway IBB statement and focus on the first part of the post. (Re)read Parker's article:

    Joe Mauer pulled through in 2012 - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum

    or check his career splits

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...ear=Career&t=b

    Mauer hits well under any scenario, but in every possible way runners can occupy bases, he hits much, much better compared to when the bases are empty.

    Unless we are expecting whoever is now going to be atop the lineup to occupy the bases as well as Span and Revere did last year Mauer's numbers are bound to decrease.

  18. #18
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    I personally think that he'll remain in that same BA/OPS range... Naturally, I think that the OBP comes down a little because it was just so high last year, but I think he can add a few more doubles. I personally really like the idea of him catching no more than half of the games. I think that's more than enough. That way, he's able to play in 145-155 games (assuming health) rather than 120-130.

    And yes, I also think that Gardy is wise to give guys days off throughout the season. Catchers should not catch the day after a night game more than a handful of times in a season, at least until the last two months of the season if they're in contention. I think that his ability to play 1B 20-30 games will help him and help Morneau and help the team by keeping them healthy.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Ok forget about the throwaway IBB statement and focus on the first part of the post. (Re)read Parker's article:

    Joe Mauer pulled through in 2012 - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum

    or check his career splits

    Joe Mauer Career Batting Splits - Baseball-Reference.com

    Mauer hits well under any scenario, but in every possible way runners can occupy bases, he hits much, much better compared to when the bases are empty.

    Unless we are expecting whoever is now going to be atop the lineup to occupy the bases as well as Span and Revere did last year Mauer's numbers are bound to decrease.
    That is a fair argument...and it could happen, Though, in case of last year (just last year), Span was in the .340s and Revere in the .330s. Not bad, but those are attainable numbers if/when Hicks comes up occupying the leadoff spot and Carroll is in the 2 hole. Additionally, he's had some horrendous #2 hitters over the years since Mauer has been with the team and he maintained his numbers anyway. We'll see.

    Thanks for the interesting viewpoint, something to monitor this year
    Last edited by ThePuck; 01-08-2013 at 12:13 PM.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    Catchers should not catch the day after a night game more than a handful of times in a season, at least until the last two months of the season if they're in contention. I think that his ability to play 1B 20-30 games will help him and help Morneau and help the team by keeping them healthy.
    And that's true, but that's more of a guideline throughout the game (just have to look at games played at catcher in the majors). It's not an absolute necessity that he just couldn't go out there and catch. It's a manager's choice, not because he COULDN'T go catch more. I guess what I'm saying is this. Does anyone really think Mauer would have only played 74 games last year if catcher was his only option? Even earlier in his career. Do we really believe he'd only have played 110 games in 2006?

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