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Thread: Comparing pitcher's value?

  1. #21
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    You're absolutely right that an individual team should value players slightly differently based on their park and other factor they know (ie strong infield defense), but that's not what WAR tries to do. WAR intentionally removes those factors to provide an unbiased and equally comparable measure of a player's contributions. If you're faulting WAR for not providing 30 different valuations or being able to see inside a GM's head, then you win on that point. You're also right that certain things probably can't be quantified, but I'm not sure how you'd ever prove (let alone measure) an individual player's perception of his defense. We can come up with impossibilities all day long.

    Regardless, I still haven't seen you provide something that provides a better measure of a player's (or team's) performance.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    You're absolutely right that an individual team should value players slightly differently based on their park and other factor they know (ie strong infield defense), but that's not what WAR tries to do. WAR intentionally removes those factors to provide an unbiased and equally comparable measure of a player's contributions. If you're faulting WAR for not providing 30 different valuations or being able to see inside a GM's head, then you win on that point. You're also right that certain things probably can't be quantified, but I'm not sure how you'd ever prove (let alone measure) an individual player's perception of his defense. We can come up with impossibilities all day long.

    Regardless, I still haven't seen you provide something that provides a better measure of a player's (or team's) performance.
    Easily measured is the abscense of the variability of the batter, park and defense is velocity, movement of the ball and control. Those are the only independent variables that are truly under a pitcher's control. Stikeouts are influenced by the eye and judgement of the batter. While ball 4 may be a mistake on the pitcher's part, the other three may be an attempt to fool the hitter into swinging. The fourth one may as well be also depending on the batter. To propose a relative measure of skill level independent of variables of a skill that is dependent on variables iss a difficult task. For entertainment purposes you can discuss WAR,,,, fip, xfip, but it does not translate to value when you look at the contracts.
    The origional question was how do you tell you have good value, or bang for your buck in terms of pitching. In terms of pitching, those that fall into the category of a WAR less than two you have no clue as an independent factor. Does the limitations of the average pitcher fit into your team's composition and ballpark. If as a team it works you got bang for your buck, if it does not work, you did not.

    In addition, accumulated WAR for a team correlates to ..83 for a team win total. It does not mean that the individual stat is accurate for the player. WAR is not a predictor of future performance rather a look back on what was. If it only describing with an .83 correlation, then no it is not a good measure.
    Last edited by old nurse; 12-19-2012 at 06:44 PM.

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    CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports that the Cubs have agreed to a deal with Carlos Villanueva.

    Terms of the deal are not yet known, but, assuming it's not too out of line, it's another sneaky addition to the rotation by the Cubs. Villanueva was shifted back and forth from starter to reliever the last two seasons by the Blue Jays, but he pitched really well out of the rotation in 2012 before a couple late-season blowups inflated his ERA. All told, he put up a 4.16 ERA and 112/46 K/BB ratio over 125 1/3 innings this past season.
    Related: Cubs

    Source: Jon Heyman on Twitte

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Gun View Post
    CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports that the Cubs have agreed to a deal with Carlos Villanueva.

    Terms of the deal are not yet known, but, assuming it's not too out of line, it's another sneaky addition to the rotation by the Cubs. Villanueva was shifted back and forth from starter to reliever the last two seasons by the Blue Jays, but he pitched really well out of the rotation in 2012 before a couple late-season blowups inflated his ERA. All told, he put up a 4.16 ERA and 112/46 K/BB ratio over 125 1/3 innings this past season.
    Related: Cubs

    Source: Jon Heyman on Twitte
    Dude.....spam much...is it really necessary to post this in every topic?

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    The origional question was how do you tell you have good value, or bang for your buck in terms of pitching.
    If it's a free agent deal you're looking to assess, I would in fact say WAR can be used as one measurement through something like FG's dollar values. It's a more accurate assessment of what the player/pitcher contributed on his own. The WAR that a team expects a player to generate should definitely correlate pretty well to what they'd be willing to pay.

    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    WAR is not a predictor of future performance rather a look back on what was.
    There is no perfect predictor or magic 8 ball anywhere in this world and WAR doesn't claim to be either. However, it's a better predictor of a player's future performance than things like wins, RBIs, etc.

    I still haven't seen you cite a real measurement that exists as a better way to measure a player's value or contributions.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    I still haven't seen you cite a real measurement that exists as a better way to measure a player's value or contributions.
    Please reread my above post as I thought I explained it perfectly clea my position on assessing a pitcher's value with no outside influences.

    I notice you quickly dropped the correlation to reality bit with WAR, pun intended.

    I went to ESPN. Took the top ranked players from the free agent class from this year that have signed. I divided the average per year from the contract and divided it by Fangraph's WAR value for last year. Nothing stands out as a developing pattern. Yes the sample size is small enough to not be significant yet Upton 4.5 mil per War , Hamilton's 5.7 Grienke 4.8, Kuroda 3.8 and Haren 7.2 It would lead one to believe there would be no pattern.

  7. #27
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    I just stumbled on this site where you can type in a pitcher's name and get all sorts of analysis about what he is worth.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    Yes the sample size is small enough to not be significant yet Upton 4.5 mil per War , Hamilton's 5.7 Grienke 4.8, Kuroda 3.8 and Haren 7.2 It would lead one to believe there would be no pattern.
    A free agent deal should be based off 'expected WAR' going forward. So, of course you'll see TONS of variation based on what different teams expect a player to do going forward. You also see other factors affect how much a team is willing to pay for a free agent or give up in a trade (see: Blue Jays, Toronto and Dickey, R.A.)... which makes sense since going from 86 wins to 90 wins is incredibly more valuable than something like 66 to 70. You literally can't come up with a perfectly correlated pattern since there literally isn't one. WAR (and FG dollars) at least provides a baseline designed to equally measure all players as best possible.

    I agree with you that velocity, movement, and control would be great things to further assess a pitcher, but the point is you haven't named a stat that exists today that can be used as a better alternative to WAR.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    A free agent deal should be based off 'expected WAR' going forward. So, of course you'll see TONS of variation based on what different teams expect a player to do going forward. You also see other factors affect how much a team is willing to pay for a free agent or give up in a trade (see: Blue Jays, Toronto and Dickey, R.A.)... which makes sense since going from 86 wins to 90 wins is incredibly more valuable than something like 66 to 70. You literally can't come up with a perfectly correlated pattern since there literally isn't one. WAR (and FG dollars) at least provides a baseline designed to equally measure all players as best possible.

    I agree with you that velocity, movement, and control would be great things to further assess a pitcher, but the point is you haven't named a stat that exists today that can be used as a better alternative to WAR.
    Where do I find the stat expected WAR? If that is what the basis for payment is than Spideyo has no shot at finding out if his team has gotten a good deal based on current WAR. Thank you for proving my point.

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