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Thread: Josh Willingham+Justin Morneau for Mike Olt

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Remember that one player who was shaky at defense then become good? Yeah, I mean if a couple bad defensive players can become good, why can't we assume everyone else will?
    Remember that one guy who looked like a really good prospect in that one organization who ended up being good? Why can't we just assume everyone else will?

    Because clearly panicking now and trading for another 3B PROSPECT is the right thing for this organization to do. Cause you know, since he's a PROSPECT in another organization, he's guaranteed to work out better as a 3B. And panic-trading two of our best hitters right now for said PROSPECT because we don't know what kind of 3B defense our own top prospect may be playing 3 years from now is clearly the best use of available resources.

    This has nothing to do with whether I think Sano will be a good defensive 3B. If he turns into the hitter he looks like he could, he can play below average defense and still be a huge positive for the team. And it means we don't have to trade away good players to try and fill imagined future holes and can instead try and use those players to fill holes we know we have. We KNOW our pitching is terrible. You're guessing our 3B defense may not be good (and may be heavily offset by the bat he brings) in a few years.

    And all of this ignores that we already have a relatively young 3B who hit 24 homeruns last year in less than a full season of at-bats. Yes, Plouffe is unlikely to win gold gloves at 3B. But he somehow stuck as a SS for his entire minor league career. Yes, we don't have a big enough sample to be certain he'll be a consistent above-average hitter. But he certainly has the potential. So essentially we have 2 guys in our organization, one already at the majors, one who will be in a few years, who both have the potential to be standout hitters at 3B. But because their defense looks iffy in the small sample sizes we have available so far, we should completely write off both of our own players and trade our 2nd and 3rd best hitters to go find someone else's prospect who MIGHT be a better defensive player. And who also might not be as good a hitter. Of course there's no chance he could end up being anything less than a star, right?

    Look, I understand Mike Olt looks like a great prospect, and someday he may end up having been worth trading Morneau and Willingham for him. But since we're essentially looking at a bunch of guys who haven't yet proven they're a long-term 3B, why trade 2 of our best players for an unproven when we have 2 of our own unproven who might be just as good? So we can say we traded our players when they still had value and got something back in return is the answer, I would imagine. I think that's a little misguided, and if that's the reason, target something that's clearly a bigger need, a SS or SP, not 3B. If Plouffe faceplants and the Twins move Sano to 1B this year, feel free to come throw this back in my face. But it isn't a move that makes sense to me right now.

  2. #62
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    So you want to wait until Mike Olt becomes a bonafide star in the majors before we trade for him?

    Got it.

  3. #63
    Senior Member All-Star Boom Boom's Avatar
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    In The Show 2013 this trade could happen.

  4. #64
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    So you want to wait until Mike Olt becomes a bonafide star in the majors before we trade for him?

    Got it.
    its possible you misunderstood ericcri's post. I suggest you go back and read it again.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    So you want to wait until Mike Olt becomes a bonafide star in the majors before we trade for him?

    Got it.
    Try again. My position is that if we're hoping Texas panics and makes a stupid trade, we should be hoping they give us something we need more than a 3B prospect, because we do have two of our own 3B prospects at the moment, whether you choose to acknowledge it or not.

  6. #66
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ericchri View Post
    Try again. My position is that if we're hoping Texas panics and makes a stupid trade, we should be hoping they give us something we need more than a 3B prospect, because we do have two of our own 3B prospects at the moment, whether you choose to acknowledge it or not.
    We have already been over the fact that they aren't trading us Profar and Andrus. If that is the case Olt is the best guy we could get.

    Also, I don't think you understand just how terrible Sano has been at 3rd base so far, he will have to improve drastically to even be considered (below average) at the position. I hope he sticks, I'm just not counting on it, nor should the Twins. Besides Sano still won't be helping the major league club in 2013 and 2014.

    Who is the other 3B prospect? Plouffe? I still think we could give Plouffe a shot at 2B or even the corner OF if he continues to hit. Either way our depth at 3B is very, very thin and Olt is the best prospect we could conceivably get from the Rangers.

    Also Sanos sample size at 3B is not small....and for someone so dead set agianst us trading for Olt I haven't heard you mention one "pitcher" from the Rangers we should realistically go after.

  7. #67
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    I'll make this simpler. The Twins should trade for Olt because he is a top 25 overall middle of the order bat that is MLB ready. I would love to get a top 25 overall pitching prospect but it's not easy to match up exactly on trades like this. And I wouldn't pass this up (if available) just because we have someone that is over 2 years away. I like Plouffe but his defense is also pretty questionable.

  8. #68
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Is this really still going as a two-for-one deal? I said somewhere that the Twins should not trade X number of players for X-1 number of prospects. I like the ratio they have going so far this year: 2 for 2 plus an actual major league pitcher.

    As far as Olt goes, I would only make a trade for Willingham and see if Plouffe can play LF. I would assume that he would improve the defense over Willingham at least some and the Twins would be adding someone who has been pretty dominant offensively in the minors. It isn't clear that the Rangers are going to really have a spot for Olt with Beltre there now and Gallo there down the road. Willingham vs. Hamilton is definitely not a difference of 18 million bucks!

  9. #69
    The only way I see this trade happening is if Texas includes Perez and/or Buckel because TR isn't going to punt 2013 for just 1 prospect. Trading Span and Revere was different because we had obvious depth in CF and Philly really stepped up their offer. The same goes for Texas, they'll need to step up their offer if they want to woo TR enough to punt 2013. Another problem is that Texas' greatest needs are in CF and a top of the rotation SP, neither of which this trade would address.

  10. #70
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    I still think this would be a good trade, however, I did assume that we would get more back (I just didn't deliniate the same). I have to assume that Willingham has peaked this year, and Morneau's salary is an albatross. Do I hope Justin will have a great year...yep, love the guy, but predictors for both are looking down (age, injuries, etc.). If we are rebuilding, and I think we are, trade them now or at the deadline depending on the offers. If Texas offers Olt and a high upside pitching prospect in the A-AA range, I still take it.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Is this really still going as a two-for-one deal? I said somewhere that the Twins should not trade X number of players for X-1 number of prospects. I like the ratio they have going so far this year: 2 for 2 plus an actual major league pitcher.
    I would focus on a Willingham for Olt trade also but realistically I don't think Willingham will land a top 25 prospect. This was indirectly mentioned by what kind of pitcher the Twins could get back in a Willingham trade. If I had the choice between a 2 lesser prospects or a much better one then I'll choose the much better one.

  12. #72
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    Ryan has already punted on 2013 with his pitching decisions, hasn't he? I see mo reason to keep these guys around now.

  13. #73
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I would focus on a Willingham for Olt trade also but realistically I don't think Willingham will land a top 25 prospect. This was indirectly mentioned by what kind of pitcher the Twins could get back in a Willingham trade. If I had the choice between a 2 lesser prospects or a much better one then I'll choose the much better one.
    Willingham and his contract might land such a prospect. I would be fine adding minor leaguers or Anthony Swarzak, et al, to the deal (better Twins prospects for lesser Rangers prospects) in order to get the deal done.

  14. #74
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Keep in mind that the Rangers have been very, very close to winning twice now. They want a World Series immediately and are likely going to make sure they do whatever they can to win that in the next two years. Willingham is a cheap replacement for Hamilton and Beltre isn't going anywhere.

  15. #75
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Where Nick Swisher goes could keep this possibility open or end it.

  16. #76
    Prediction: The Twins will not acquire Mike Olt.

  17. #77
    Quote Originally Posted by LimestoneBaggy View Post
    I still think this would be a good trade, however, I did assume that we would get more back (I just didn't deliniate the same). I have to assume that Willingham has peaked this year, and Morneau's salary is an albatross. Do I hope Justin will have a great year...yep, love the guy, but predictors for both are looking down (age, injuries, etc.). If we are rebuilding, and I think we are, trade them now or at the deadline depending on the offers. If Texas offers Olt and a high upside pitching prospect in the A-AA range, I still take it.
    Is Morneau's salary an albatross? He's only 33, in great shape, and still plays a formidable 1B. If his concussion issues are a thing of the past what's not to say he still doesn't have a few great years left? Pretty much everyone on this board is predicting Morneau to have a bounce back season which would warrant a qualifying offer next offseason. Look at David Ortiz, at age 37, he's still making $14 million per season. So, the acquiring team gets a former MVP, middle of the order bat, in a contract year, to which they could potentially recieve a 1st round draft choice if they can't re-sign him next offseason. I think Morneau alone should net at least Cody Buckel but now throw in Willingham and the Rangers might also include Olt but probably more realistically Perez. Would we consider Perez and Buckel for Willingham and Morneau? What if they tossed in Justin Grimm?

  18. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Ryan has already punted on 2013 with his pitching decisions, hasn't he? I see mo reason to keep these guys around now.
    I don't think adding Worley, Correia, and Pelfrey necessarily say TR is punting 2013 and according to reports he's still looking to add. I think TR feels we have a pretty solid lineup that if we could add depth to the rotation that we'll have a chance to compete and I agree. If TR signs another SP like Marcum, Lohse, Jackson, or Saunders the Twins will have a solid enough rotation to win a lot more games in 2013 and possibly compete.

  19. #79
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Where Nick Swisher goes could keep this possibility open or end it.
    This is on point. I think we need to watch LaRoche also. We should be hoping those two sign huge contracts to make our guys seem more like bargains.

    Once those two sign, we could see demand for both Willingham and Morneau pick up steam. The Mariners, Rangers, Orioles, Red Sox, Braves (still) or even Nats (again) could be some potential spots.

    Personally, I'd be okay with moving Willingham (peak value), but I think we'd be better off keeping Morneau until the trade deadline.

  20. #80
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    Is Morneau's salary an albatross?
    When taken in context with the aquiring team having to eat the salary and provide a high upside prosect. In that case, I believe it is.

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