12-10-2012, 09:49 PM #81
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Regardless of whether or not Dozier was a top prospect (and I agree that's a big difference), he hit very well at AA and it sounded like they thought he was ready from a scouting perspective. He was older at the time, and one would have thought that would have allowed him to handle it, maturity wise.
Good point about the Twins not really having success bringing anyone up from anywhere. It's a fair point though they've had more that stuck after a stint in AAA than directly. Whether or not that works for Hicks, who knows, but it's hard for me to trust the Twins judgement about a player being ready. They haven't talked about it with regard to Hicks, but moving Revere would indicate that.
You mentioned that Hicks was more ready defensively, but I'm curious what is it that makes you so confident he's ML ready? Is it the single season in AA, his change in mechanics, the top prospect status he once had where he now gained ground again, or something else you've heard? Would you promote Arcia as well, too?
12-10-2012, 10:42 PM #82
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One thing to remember. The Twins are not merely missing a CF. They are missing a leadoff hitter. Hicks is the only one of the three to properly be called a potential quality leadoff hitter.
12-10-2012, 10:59 PM #83
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You should realize that something is wrong with the display on this blog. I cannot access the comments section on the articles on the main page.
Anyway, heads up people. Your blog is not functioning properly.
12-11-2012, 10:07 AM #84
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I have my doubts that Hicks is ready for the majors. He obviously had a nice age 22 season in a full year at AA. He may well have “turned a corner”, but where exactly did he improve over the previous season in high-A?
2011 242/354/366/720 5 HR
2012 385/382/459/841 13 HR
The difference is more power, right? Actually, he only had 5 more extra base hits in 2012 than 2011 and that was with 35 more PA. And his walk and K rates were both marginally down last year. The biggest improvement was actually with his BABIP – from .308 in 2011 to .346 in 2012. He put the ball in play more often last year. He’s never been a huge strikeout guy, but his rate of 20.6% over the last 2 years is not great.
It doesn’t mean he can’t improve the K rate or succeed in the majors in general, but odds are going to be against him if he strikes out more than that and puts the ball in play less often. I think less contact in his first season is likely at age 23, and if he puts fewer balls in play, he could be looking at a line more similar to 2011 than 2012.
So, is a line of 255/355/370/725 with stellar D in CF realistic? It would certainly be more than adequate for a league minimum salary at age 23 and it actually wouldn’t be that far behind Span’s 2012 season numbers.
I’d much rather see him try to stick in MN rather than go to triple-A. AAA is not a prospect league anymore. It’s for career minor leaguers and washed up veterans and serves as a holding place for marginal prospects that the big club hasn’t yet made their mind on. I’d rather see Hicks go back to AA to start the season if they don’t bring him along out of spring training. At any rate, I’m excited to see what Hicks can do in a big league uniform, whether it happens now or in the near future.
12-11-2012, 01:25 PM #85
Originally Posted by Alex
I would not promote Arcia. He's played less than 70 games in Double-A, he's still 21 and there's no clear opening for him. Makes more sense to plan his arrival around Morneau's departure. But if you get Hicks up at the start of the season, by the time Arcia joins the roster hopefully Hicks has adjusted a bit and you're not dealing with two fresh rookies learning the ropes in the outfield simultaneously.