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Thread: Baseball Prospectus Top 10 Twins Prospects

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Interesting list. Buxton above Sano? Cool. Agree with Hicks at 3 but, generally, our top 6 is pretty set, just flip them around a bit.

    Good to see Polanco getting into the top 10. Three guys (Sano, Kepler and Polanco) were international signees from the same year. Nice class.
    At some point we might have to reconsider the reign of Bill Smith

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by clutterheart View Post

    At some point we might have to reconsider the reign of Bill Smith
    I agree. He did a number of good things, foremost improving our international footprint. He got too much blame on some trades and he, unlike Ryan, was willing to make "win now" trades which fans were clamoring for for years. I like that he put Johnson in charge of our drafts although, admittedly, those drafts haven't panned out yet.

  3. #23
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Twins Twerp's Avatar
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    The only thing smith has to fall back on is his international signings. But for a guy like sano...there is a nishioka to balance the scale...or tip it to the point of not reassessing his time as gm. Then u have capps...trading jj hardy, trading johan for a bucket of balls...the list goes on. Maybe well thank him when buxton is a hall of famer for it was his foresight to create a terrible tewm so we could have a high pick...the man is a genious

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by clutterheart View Post

    At some point we might have to reconsider the reign of Bill Smith
    I agree. He did a number of good things, foremost improving our international footprint. He got too much blame on some trades and he, unlike Ryan, was willing to make "win now" trades which fans were clamoring for for years. I like that he put Johnson in charge of our drafts although, admittedly, those drafts haven't panned out yet.
    Well stated--I totally agree. There are many who have made posts reviling Smith, but I think he was a GM in a weak position of power in the organization. It seems to me that the FO managed by committee and Smith was but one voice with "horsetrading" widely practiced to build consensus among all, bearing in mind that this was the Twins, not the Yankees/Red Sox/etc. Should he carry blame--sure, but there should be plenty of other names on that list and those guys are still around. Smith stated as he carried his head, "...there were many other signatures on the paper, mine was only the last one." I sure hope that these internationals he signed truly rise and shine--so the Twins devote more resources to this source of talent--especially at the expense of "veteran free agent value signings".

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    The only thing smith has to fall back on is his international signings. But for a guy like sano...there is a nishioka to balance the scale...or tip it to the point of not reassessing his time as gm. Then u have capps...trading jj hardy, trading johan for a bucket of balls...the list goes on. Maybe well thank him when buxton is a hall of famer for it was his foresight to create a terrible tewm so we could have a high pick...the man is a genious
    He made a number of good small deals - Rauch, Pavano, Cabrera. He also signed Thome, Crede and Hudson. He changed the offensive philosophy away from piranha ball to getting some offense out of our lower order spots. Because of needing to sign Mauer, he locked in a lot of contracts. Blackburn always gets thrown out but he also signed Kubel, Baker, Morneau, Span and Cuddy to nice team friendly deals.

    Fans revolt on his trades but he really had no choice on the Santana deal. Garza/Young was the type of trade fans had been demanding for years. Hardy was traded b/c of payroll issues and the coaching staff wanting a "different direction." Fans here act like Ramos is an all-star catcher when in fact he was an injury prone player with plate discipline issues whose prospect status was falling. And fans are less likely to complain about the Bullock/Diamond deal now compared to when it happened. As mentioned, he made a number of good small deals and the 2010 Twins were the best Twins team since 1991 in large part because of how Smith went about creating the team (again, no piranhas!).

    Smith came into the Twins at a horrible time and, as Kwik notes, didn't have all that much power. The Twins had missed the playoffs two out of the last three years and had just had their first losing season. Santana, Silva and Hunter were going to be gone. Liriano was coming back from injury. Mauer was going to need a huge deal. And we had an aging core. Smith built for 2010, it worked, but the window fell apart in 2011. I'm not saying he shouldn't have been fired but he did get too much of the blame, (and I think he was fired more b/c he wanted to spend more money). As mentioned, I like that Johnson took over the draft and changed some of our philosophy but it hasn't yet panned out for us.

  6. #26
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    Smith gets too much blame.for the failings of the minor league system from before his time. Was he perfect, no. But this is an organizational failing, not on one person.

  7. #27
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    Thank you! Finally some other people saying things about Smith I've been saying since he was fired. Good to know I'm not the only one...

  8. #28
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    I've always said that Smith did a pretty good job with the minors, drafting, and international minor league players.

    He offset that with an absolutely abominable job handling the major league roster. He traded away the Twins best pitcher and best young pitcher in the same offseason. Hardy for Hoey offset any goodwill from the Hardy/Gomez deal. Ramos/Capps. Nishioka.

    He had one good offseason before 2010 but other than that, almost every deal he made was horrible for the Twins.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I've always said that Smith did a pretty good job with the minors, drafting, and international minor league players.

    He offset that with an absolutely abominable job handling the major league roster. He traded away the Twins best pitcher and best young pitcher in the same offseason. Hardy for Hoey offset any goodwill from the Hardy/Gomez deal. Ramos/Capps. Nishioka.

    He had one good offseason before 2010 but other than that, almost every deal he made was horrible for the Twins.
    There are people (me) who believe that Hardy was run-off of the team as well as being a part of the salary dump after 2010. I was one (and I think most others) who interpreted the Twins statement that "Target field will allow the Twins to resign the top player(s) of the team" to mean re-sign the stars and keep the main supporting cast, as opposed to keeping the stars only and slashing the salaries elsewhere to return to the status quo of salary total. Our Bad. Smith (likely) simply agreed to the consensus of dump Hardy and sign Nishioka as opposed to devising this all by himself. I don't think that Smith held that kind of power to act alone in defining the Active Roster.

  10. #30
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    The price difference between Hardy and Nishioka was negligible in 2011 (without looking at the numbers, pretty sure Hardy was actually cheaper once you count Nishioka's signing bonus). That was an on-field decision and it was a bad one.

  11. #31
    Senior Member All-Star Badsmerf's Avatar
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    How can you honestly put Buxton above Sano right now and keep a straight face? That is completely asinine. Buxton has a great tool-set and had a nice professional debut, but Sano hit 28 HR's in a pitcher's league as a 19 y.o. Really? Come on man. Maybe next year is Sano is still having defensive and strike out issues you can put Buxton above him, but not right now. I know these lists are just for fun, but sometimes I just get frustrated when prospects are overrated from the get go like Delmon Young. Success speaks louder than tools to me.
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  12. #32
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    Delmon Young actually had a great MiLB career until he reached AAA and then the majors. His problem was that he was simply a superior athlete compared to the kids in the low minors and imo a superior prospect to Sano. So let's not act like Sano is a proven prospect. You do have a fair point about rating prospects with almost no experience but I do value scouts (not BA but actual scouts) think very highly of Buxton so it's not crazy that he's rated higher than Sano. i'm more in the wait and see category but I also don't get to see any of these prospects play.

  13. #33
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Badsmerf View Post
    How can you honestly put Buxton above Sano right now and keep a straight face? That is completely asinine. Buxton has a great tool-set and had a nice professional debut, but Sano hit 28 HR's in a pitcher's league as a 19 y.o. Really? Come on man. Maybe next year is Sano is still having defensive and strike out issues you can put Buxton above him, but not right now. I know these lists are just for fun, but sometimes I just get frustrated when prospects are overrated from the get go like Delmon Young. Success speaks louder than tools to me.
    I'll be assinine too, then, because I consider Buxton the better prospect right now and that is largely based on the fact that I did see Sano play several games this season. You gloss over his defense and K issues as though they shouldn't even be considered in the evaluation, but to me they do cost him "points" in any evaluation. I'd turn things around on you and say that maybe if next year Sano DOESN'T continue to have the defensive and K issues he had this year, I'd make a strong case that his power potential would warrant him moving back ahead of Buxton on a prospect list. But a player with the potential to not only play, but excell at, a high-value defensive position AND provide the offense that Buxton can is a better prospect in my eyes than one whose game is all about offense.

    I may have the pleasure of seeing Buxton in Cedar Rapids this summer and I'm looking forward to comparing him to what I saw of Sano. The good news is that, regardless of which guy is 1 or 2, they both have enormous potential for the Twins' future.
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