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Thread: Article: Glen Perkins and the future

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    Owner All-Star Parker Hageman's Avatar
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    Article: Glen Perkins and the future


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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    I do not think that it is coincidental that Perkins' highest career K/9 (on both ends of his career so far) came when he is a reliever. His career K/9 as a reliever is 8.1 and as a strarter 4.3. Another thing that has to be mentioned is that his 2011 BABIP (probably thanks to the Twins' defense) was .333, so his actual pitching effectiveness in 2011 is deflated. I really expect great things from Perkins in the years to come.
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  3. #3
    Owner All-Star Parker Hageman's Avatar
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    I do not think that it is coincidental that Perkins' highest career K/9 (on both ends of his career so far) came when he is a reliever. His career K/9 as a reliever is 8.1 and as a strarter 4.3.
    Yes, there is typically a higher strikeout rate for relievers over starters for various reasons, but most do not have such a discrepancies such as the one Perkins displayed. Last year, the difference between starters K/9 (6.8) and the relievers (7.9) was not nearly as pronounced as Perkins' differential. So, while his strikeout rates jump because of the smaller universe, he was clearly an improved pitcher - notably with the velocity and his slider - elevating him to the strikeout pitcher he was in 2011.

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    Another thing that helped Perk out a lot last year was limiting the long ball. 0.29 HR/9 with 4.3% HR/FB. You'd expect that his home run rate would drop after moving to Target field, but it actually skyrocketed in 2010. In fact it was the worst in his career at 1.25 HR/9 with 14.3% HR/FB. It was twice as bad as a starter than as a reliever, but still, not good. Which one was a fluke? (Or which was more flukey?) Hard to say, projections vary a lot. Bill James' projection system is really down on him projecting a 4.94 ERA, rotochamp is much better projecting a respectable 3.45 ERA. It probably depends on how much these rating systems weigh past seasons.

    I'm hopeful that last year was closer to the future, because I think he's actually been going through a transformation as a pitcher, not a rediscovery. When he came up in 2006 he was a fastball/curveball/change-up guy, and a flyball pitcher. In 2008 he added a slider and phased out his curveball. In the process he has steadily turned into a groundball pitcher. Last year he threw his slider more than ever and it was better than ever, as you've noted in the article. His peripherals and success have also consistently been better as a reliever than as a starter as thrylos noted. I think this will end up being a very good contract for the Twins.

  5. #5

    Wait a sec...

    Quote Originally Posted by Parker Hageman View Post
    Yes, there is typically a higher strikeout rate for relievers over starters for various reasons, but most do not have such a discrepancies such as the one Perkins displayed. Last year, the difference between starters K/9 (6.8) and the relievers (7.9) was not nearly as pronounced as Perkins' differential. So, while his strikeout rates jump because of the smaller universe, he was clearly an improved pitcher - notably with the velocity and his slider - elevating him to the strikeout pitcher he was in 2011.
    While you're right that Perkins' discrepancy is somewhat larger than one might expect, the stats that you choose to back up that assertion are misplaced I think. We're talking about the difference in strikeout rate for a single player, not all starters vs. all relievers. This is a bad comp for a large number of reasons, not least among which is the fact that, on average, starters are simply better pitchers. A way better comp (albeit a much harder one) would be pitchers who did significant time in the majors as both starters and relievers. I know that it's not terribly uncommon for failed starters to become lights-out relievers, and even closers. What reason do we have to disbelieve in Perkins' K numbers as a reliever? After multiple full seasons in the role, the sample size isn't exactly miniscule.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jimbo92107's Avatar
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    We all saw how much better Glen Perkins was throwing the ball last year. Increasing his heater from low 90's to high 90's is a rare thing, especially after a pitcher has had arm trouble. Somehow Perkins developed better technique on both his fastball and his slider. It's unlikely he will suddenly forget what he figured out. How Glen Perkins refined his throwing motion would be the topic of a truly fascinating article.

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    Owner All-Star Parker Hageman's Avatar
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    While you're right that Perkins' discrepancy is somewhat larger than one might expect, the stats that you choose to back up that assertion are misplaced I think. We're talking about the difference in strikeout rate for a single player, not all starters vs. all relievers.
    Right, I was not using it as a rule of thumb but rather as a yardstick. There was a study performed by either the Hardball Times or Baseball Prospectus -- which I couldn't find -- that should that there was a difference between starters-turned-relievers or relievers-turned-starters but, from what I remember, it was not nearly as big as Perkins' differential. I do not believe that if you had placed 2008-2009 starter Perkins in the pen he would have been capable of posting the same strikeout rate/level as 2011 Perkins.

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    Senior Member Triple-A Teflon's Avatar
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    The change in K/9 rates reflects the change in being a reliever versus a starter more than anything else.Perkins low rates were years when he started (2008 & 2009: 33 starts) while his high rates were years when he pitched in relief. (2006, 2007, 2010, 2011: 1 start.) HOF reliever Rich Gossage's K/9 his last year as a starter (1976) was 5.4 but it improved 10.2 in 1977 when he became a reliever. Another HOF reliever, Dennis Eckersley, went from he low 6's to the high 8's upon his conversion in 1987.

  9. #9
    It had to be a rude awakening that no one claimed you on waivers...and that maybe you have to work/think a little bit harder about a major league career. That being said, he is a Minnesota boy, a good booster of the Gopher program, and can become a spokesperson for the team a la Michael Cuddyer. Plus, he is left-handed. Just ahs to maintain a great attitude and enjoy throwing strikes!

  10. #10
    PMKI? What does it mean?

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    PMKI = pretty much killing it. It's a twitter thing

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rosterman View Post
    It had to be a rude awakening that no one claimed you on waivers...
    Correct me if I am wrong, but I am pretty sure that he had options left so he was not placed on waivers when sent to Rochester
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    Makes the Matt Capps signing look brilliant. Terry Ryan made another great deal.

  14. #14
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Perkins should have been named the starter and Matt Capps should have been sent packing. That is clear. What might be overlooked here is that sometimes the mental aspect of the game is powerful for certain players. There is a big difference in the mentality of a short reliever and a starter. Perkins may just have blossomed because he can concentrate mentally better as a short reliever.

  15. #15
    Senior Member Double-A Neinstein's Avatar
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    I can't wait to see that smile slowly turn into a smirk.

  16. #16
    There is another factor that shouldn't be discounted. Perkins himself credits the change in his off-season (2010-11) workout routine for his velocity improvement. He did less weight training and more flexibility work as well as participating in other sports activities. He did the same this past off-season and so far he looks good in ST games. If he can stay healthy and if he is not overused, I look for him to have another excellent season.

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