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Thread: Article: Don't Forget Dozier

  1. #1
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Article: Don't forget Dozier


  2. #2
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Boom Boom's Avatar
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    After watching Dozier play, I think his future is at second base. If he can hit some. I don't think he's got the range or the arm to make it as a shortstop long-term, but I wouldn't give up on him as a possible contributor in the near future.

  3. #3
    I seem to be in the minority, but I am fine with Florimon at short. I think either Span or Revere is going to be moved this offseason, so that will open a spot for another power guy in RF so the Twins would really only have the 8/9 spots in the lineup as a weekness which could be reserved for the middle infielders. And given the pitching staff, I would trot out the best middle infielders possible and sacrifice offense.

    This would be my lineup (assuming a Span trade):
    Revere (CF), Mauer (C), Willingham (LF), Morneau (1B), Doumit (DH), Parmelee (RF), Plouffe (3B), Dozier (2B), Florimon (SS)

    Or if Carroll is your guy at 2nd base, he could hit 2nd or 8th.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boom Boom View Post
    After watching Dozier play, I think his future is at second base. If he can hit some. I don't think he's got the range or the arm to make it as a shortstop long-term, but I wouldn't give up on him as a possible contributor in the near future.
    Fangraphs lists Dozier's range at .796. That puts him between Aybar and Reyes. Florimon at .757.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Boom Boom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Boom Boom View Post
    After watching Dozier play, I think his future is at second base. If he can hit some. I don't think he's got the range or the arm to make it as a shortstop long-term, but I wouldn't give up on him as a possible contributor in the near future.
    Fangraphs lists Dozier's range at .796. That puts him between Aybar and Reyes. Florimon at .757.
    Fangraphs lists lots of things, including numbers that are meaningless or can be misleading.

    Dozier's UZR was -1.2 and Florimon's was 1.4.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boom Boom View Post

    Fangraphs lists lots of things, including numbers that are meaningless or can be misleading.

    Dozier's UZR was -1.2 and Florimon's was 1.4.
    Yeah, I thought we were talking range...but yeah, I get that a lot of people throw out stats as meaningless when they don't support their views.

    In any event, we also have Florimon who averaged 40+ errors per 162 games in the minors...and jumped right on board with making errors when he was brought up. I don't really judge people on errors or fielding percentage, but that's still a huge amount. Couple that with poor range, and I doubt he's good enough to be a major league starting shortstop.
    Last edited by ThePuck; 10-23-2012 at 12:18 PM.

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    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    RZR stands for revised zone rating. It is the percentage of balls hit into a player's zone that are turned into outs. Dozier's was .796 (n 207), Florimon's was .757 (n 111), Carroll's was .810 (n 105) last year (at SS).

    Dozier, Florimon, and Carroll made 39, 29 and 18 plays out of their zone, respectively (at SS). For comparison, JJ Hardy made a mlb-high 109 OOZ plays last year compared to 409 balls hit into his zone. That was a career high for him. But Florimon's OOZ plays as a percentage of balls hit into his zone was virtually the same as Hardy's - .261 to .260, although Hardy has been much better at converting balls in zone into outs.

    Small sample sizes for Dozier and Flormon, maybe meaningless. If not meaningless, then Flormin would seem to be slightly rangier. Possibly a Starlin Castro type defender.

    If only he could hit like Castro.

  8. #8
    key words in above comment--small sample sizes....

    lets give Dozier and Florimon the opportunity to play middle IF at spring training. If one stands out (or maybe both) go with them next season with Carroll as a backup. I admit to being a big Dozier fan--I think he can be a decent MLB SS...maybe Florimon too...but give them a shot...look at how many shots Alexei has had.

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    'Florimon's OOZ plays as a percentage of balls hit into his zone was virtually the same as Hardy's - .261 to .260'

    Plays outside of zone (OOZ) aren't including in the RZR at all...it's to be looked at separately as part of the overall defensive measure. Florimon had 111 balls hit into his zone. He made 84 plays, but those plays were made on ball in zone (BIZ). That gives you the .757 RZR.

    His 29 plays OOZ aren't included in the 84 plays. It's a separate issue. OOZ is purposely excluded. So that 29 plays made OOZ isn't part of the 84 plays and therefore isn't a percentage of overall plays he made in his zone.

  10. #10
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Boom Boom's Avatar
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    I don't think either Dozier or Florimon has played enough for us to be able to look at their defensive metrics and be convinced that they are or aren't good defenders.

    I think that putting Dozier at 2B would give him a somewhat better chance at being successful, at least defensively. But he still has to hit.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by DAM DC Twins Fans View Post
    key words in above comment--small sample sizes....

    lets give Dozier and Florimon the opportunity to play middle IF at spring training. If one stands out (or maybe both) go with them next season with Carroll as a backup. I admit to being a big Dozier fan--I think he can be a decent MLB SS...maybe Florimon too...but give them a shot...look at how many shots Alexei has had.
    It would be nice if, for once, we actually had a spring training battle where the winner was labeled the starter...

  12. #12
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Plays outside of zone (OOZ) aren't including in the RZR at all...it's to be looked at separately as part of the overall defensive measure. Florimon had 111 balls hit into his zone. He made 84 plays, but those plays were made on ball in zone (BIZ). That gives you the .757 RZR.
    Yes but the absolute value OOZ doesn't provide much context. I debated using Innings instead of BIZ but figured that would be less meaningfull to most people.

    Unfortunately there's no stat OOZ opportunities.

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    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    If the Rangers lose Hamilton and need a CF would a Span for Andrus trade work?
    This comment brought to you from the Rosedale Mall studio by Hamm's Beer, brewed in the land of sky blue waters.

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    I keep hearing Andrus' name brought up. Is he on the trading block and I've missed it?

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer 70charger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    I keep hearing Andrus' name brought up. Is he on the trading block and I've missed it?
    He's got Jurickson Profar breathing down his neck.

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    and that's good, they have depth, but is there any word, they're going to move Andrus out. Profar will be 20 next season?

    I mean, heck, I'd like to get him...just not sure Texas would trade him...at least not yet.

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    profar and olt , the 2 who are being eyed as trade bait

  18. #18
    Most rookies, especially shortstops, struggle badly when forced to play in the majors. Both offensively and defensively. It wasn't all bad either in 2012. It's not like the Twins are going to compete next season so I have no problems with playing Dozier and I think they should. I'm shocked by reading his 2011 minor league totals. Actually those numbers are absolutely outstanding and I'm suprised he wasn't a bigger prospect based on them alone. That's better than anything Hicks or as good as anything Arcia has done and people in these parts are almost universally high on them. Very good article Seth.
    Last edited by Jack Torse; 10-23-2012 at 04:49 PM. Reason: clarity

  19. #19
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    I wouldn't give up on Dozier just yet. Not sure I'd plan on him either. I think I'd sign Kelly Johnson and Stephen Drew to 1 year prove it contracts and let Brian start in AAA.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
    If the Rangers lose Hamilton and need a CF would a Span for Andrus trade work?
    If you throw in Sano and Rosario with Span you might be able to get Andrus. Otherwise, the best you will get for Span is a single A pitcher with upside. Too many good CF on the market and Span isn't an upgrade for most teams over their incumbant.

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