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Thread: Article: Don't Forget Dozier

  1. #21
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer righty8383's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinswon1991 View Post
    If you throw in Sano and Rosario with Span you might be able to get Andrus. Otherwise, the best you will get for Span is a single A pitcher with upside. Too many good CF on the market and Span isn't an upgrade for most teams over their incumbant.
    Did you really just suggest it would take Sano Rosario and Span to get Andrus?

  2. #22
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    I assume the Rangers will bring back Murphy to play CF. He is fine. What they seem to want is more starting pitching.

    They are a little backlogged at 1B and 3B with Beltre, Young, Moreland, and Olt. They will likely not make a qualifying offer to Napoli.

    I really think Napoli would be a perfect fit for the Twins.

  3. #23
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    I don't believe Florimon's reputation in the minors was that of an elite defender.

    He went unclaimed when the Twins DFA'd him last spring. Someone would have claimed an elite defender.

  4. #24
    I think a lot of people are forgetting how important this lasik surgery is. Dozier will probably automatically turn into a .330/.420 type hitter, I mean look at the drastic impact it had on Span when he got it!!!!

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    I don't believe Florimon's reputation in the minors was that of an elite defender.

    He went unclaimed when the Twins DFA'd him last spring. Someone would have claimed an elite defender.
    Twins brass sure touted him as such...did so in the stories on the Twins site...and so did the announcers...not sure what they were seeing...was it his lack of range or his huge amount of errors that made them scream, WOW...he's a top flight defender

  6. #26
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    The way I read RZR, is the efficiency a defender converts into outs those balls he should convert into outs, as define by baseballinfosolutions' "zone."

    It is given that over a large enough sample, all defenders field virtually the same number and type of batted balls to their zone. Likewise, we can also assume defenders will have the same opportunities to field balls outside their zone.

    So, given these assumptions, I calculated out of zone plays made per inning. These are your 2012 leaders at SS (min 300 innings).




    I comped to Castro not because Castro's an elite defender (he's average), but he has good range as defined by this measure, yet is below average at fielding in-range balls.

    It is mostly semantics, outs are outs. I am only quibbling about the argument that Florimon has limited range, because based on what little data we have, I think the opposite is true.

  7. #27
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    'It is given that over a large enough sample, all defenders field virtually the same number and type of batted balls to their zone.'

    I don't think it's a given at all, and if you look at innings played, BIZ and Plays on Fangraphs, it shows that isn't true. In any event, the amount of Balls in Zone (BIZ) is used to calculate their RZR, along with the amount plays made in the zone. The zone for shortstop is set for everyone and the amount of balls that go into that zone is used in the calculation along with the amount of the balls in the zone the player converted to outs.

    ' Likewise, we can also assume defenders will have the same opportunities to field balls outside their zone.''

    I don't see how this could be assumed either.

    In any event, RZR measures the range. OOZ measure the amount of balls fielded outside of the position's set range. ZR used to have RZR and OOZ combined, but they felt it wasn't giving us accurate info, so it divided the two. You need to take a look at both to get a good view on the overall skill of the defender, but range is RZR.

    Your 'given' and assumption seems to suggest you wanna discount RZR all together as all the numbers needed to calculate it will equal out if you project out far enough. Seems you just want to use OOZ as the measure of range, which is cool if that's what you wanna do...but that's not the stat for normal range of the player.

    And if you wanna just go by what you see, I didn't see exceptional range by any means. He came in on balls well, but his side to side was nothing special
    Last edited by ThePuck; 10-24-2012 at 01:08 PM.

  8. #28
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    'It is given that over a large enough sample, all defenders field virtually the same number and type of batted balls to their zone. Likewise, we can also assume defenders will have the same opportunities to field balls outside their zone.'

    I don't think we can say the above is true, or everyone would have the same amount of Balls in Zone (BIZ) used to calculate their RZR.
    That is a bedrock assumption, and even in a small sample like this, BIZ correlates well with innings.

    RqAmF.png

    I assume that balls out of zone correlates similarly. But no, I don't have that data.

    Edit: you can also look at the names at the top of that leaderboard, they are the usual suspects.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    'It is given that over a large enough sample, all defenders field virtually the same number and type of batted balls to their zone. Likewise, we can also assume defenders will have the same opportunities to field balls outside their zone.'

    I don't think we can say the above is true, or everyone would have the same amount of Balls in Zone (BIZ) used to calculate their RZR.
    That is a bedrock assumption, and even in a small sample like this, BIZ correlates well with innings.

    RqAmF.png

    I assume that balls out of zone correlates similarly. But no, I don't have that data.

    Edit: you can also look at the names at the top of that leaderboard, they are the usual suspects.
    Ramirez played 142 MORE innings than Escobar, but they had the same amount of Balls in Zone. Exactly the same amount. Barmes had one less ball in zone than Ramirez and Escobar, in almost 100 LESS innings than Escobar. So you have 3 defenders there, and Barmes had 1 less ball in zone than Ramirez even though he played in 233 less innings.

    Additionally, Reyes had one more Ball in Zone than Ramirez and Escobar, but he played in 18 more innings than Ramirez, 160 more than Escobar and 251 more than Barmes. Yet, Reyes had less plays made than Ramirez, Escobar AND Barmes.

    But you say 'all defenders field virtually the same number and type of batted balls to their zone' That's not what the info above says. If it was true, everyone would have the same RZR...since that's an average.

    Edited for typos...I'm a horrible typist
    Last edited by ThePuck; 10-24-2012 at 01:39 PM.

  10. #30
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Over a large enough sample, that is the predicate.

    I admit, 300 innings is a small sample. But if you're going to dismiss those 300 then you can neither conclude that Florimon has limited range.

    The principle is sound though.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Over a large enough sample, that is the predicate.

    I admit, 300 innings is a small sample. But if you're going to dismiss those 300 then you can neither conclude that Florimon has limited range.

    The principle is sound though.
    I appreciate the effort you put into your given, but the info I showed above kind of hurts that given. And the guys I used finished 3-6 in innings played at shortstop, so it's a strong sample size.

    In any event, if your given was true...that if spread out far enough everyone would have the same amount of balls in zone and the same of plays made on them....then their RZRs would be the same...since RZR is the average. If your given was true, they wouldn't even use the RZR, it'd be meaningless.
    Last edited by ThePuck; 10-24-2012 at 01:48 PM.

  12. #32
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    Again

    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Over a large enough sample, that is the predicate.

    I admit, 300 innings is a small sample. But if you're going to dismiss those 300 then you can neither conclude that Florimon has limited range.

    The principle is sound though.
    I appreciate the effort you put into your given, but the info I showed above kind of hurts that given. And the guys I used finished 3-6 in innings played at shortstop, so it's a strong sample size.

    In any event, if your given was true...that if spread out far enough everyone would have the same amount of balls in zone and the same of plays made on them....then their Rherwould be the same...since RZR is the average. If your given was true, they wouldn't even use the RZR, it'd be meaningless.
    They're likely to lose 90 plus again. There's gotta be somebody other than Dozier or Florimon.

  13. #33
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    that if spread out far enough everyone would have the same amount of balls in zone and the same of plays made on them
    That is not the assumption. The assumption is only the first part, that BIZ will normalize over a large enough sample, not that all defenders would make the same number of plays.

    3 years of full time duty is an often sited figure for when defensive metrics start to become meaningful. So a .757 RZR after two months of play is no more an indication that his range is weak, than his high proportion of OOZ plays is an indication that his range is actually strong. That is all the point I'm making.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    That is not the assumption. The assumption is only the first part, that BIZ will normalize over a large enough sample, not that all defenders would make the same number of plays.
    But you wrote: 'It is given that over a large enough sample, all defenders field virtually the same number and type of batted balls to their zone'

    I interpreted 'field' as making plays. As in he fielded the ball. Was that a bad interpretation?

  15. #35
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    I apologize for the confusion. I meant field in the sense that "Jr fielded 10 questions, and answered 7 of them."

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    I apologize for the confusion. I meant field in the sense that "Jr fielded 10 questions, and answered 7 of them."
    Ah...well that kind of negates the whole debate doesn't it :-)

  17. #37
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    Dozier who?

    Does anybody really think he has a chance to make the roster out of ST given he wasn't even called back up in September?

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden View Post
    Dozier who?

    Does anybody really think he has a chance to make the roster out of ST given he wasn't even called back up in September?
    I hope so

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