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Thread: Article: Is Samuel Deduno a lock for the 2013 rotation?

  1. #21
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul View Post
    I'm kind of fascinated by the reports on this kid's FB. Some cut, some tail, and some sink. And apparently, nobody, including him, knows which direction the ball is going. Or, even what's causing the variance. The one thing I could add to Doumit's thoughts, “I don’t know if it’s finger pressure or wrist angle or what it is, but he’s got a gift..." is this: A normal FB is thrown with index and middle finger on the seams with the thumb opposing them, roughly forming an isosceles triangle, with the ring finger second knuckle providing stability. When I switched to softball I found the movement I had, because of the shorter distance, confounded the firstbaseman. I discovered a grip change that "killed" the spin, thus reducing movement, with no real drop in velocity. All I did was change from a 3-point cradle to a 4-point cradle by moving my thumb further to the outside of the ball and adding the first knuckle of the ring finger as the 4th point. This was an accidental discovery and had more to do with the size of the ball than any mission I had. Anyhoo, if Deduno, actively or inadvertently, moves his thumb out or hits a seam with it he might "kill" some of the spin and cause apparent sink.
    I believe his 4 seamer sinks (it doesn't actually sink, it just rises less than normal) because he slings the ball, creating a rotational axis that is more vertical than horizontal. This would also account for the tailing action.

    Exactly the opposite from that windup doll Blyleven's "get on top of the ball" and "downward plain" mantras.

  2. #22
    Super Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snepp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    1) What does that make the "1-2-3" scenario if the Twins decide that Baker/Gibson are designated as the other two starters and they both end up breaking down again?
    That would be the "Oy vey!" scenario.
    Or "2012", in English.

  3. #23
    brock, the pens are full of guys that could not be straters for some reason or another, if hes in the pen he eliminates a pitch, he throws his slider for a strike more often than his fastball, so what if he walks 2 , he then strikes out the next 3...have you watched chris perez..

  4. #24
    Owner Big-Leaguer Parker Hageman's Avatar
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    I believe his 4 seamer sinks (it doesn't actually sink, it just rises less than normal) because he slings the ball, creating a rotational axis that is more vertical than horizontal. This would also account for the tailing action.
    I do believe that is a significant source for his "sink" and "run" action on his fastball. I was going to dive into that aspect of why in the piece but ultimately axed it because, dang it, I could go on forever and bore the pants out of the casual fan.

    Pitch F/X shows that in his last three seasons (including spring training data with Rockies/Padres), Deduno's vertical release point has dropped a bit and now he has a similar arm slot to Justin Masterson's -- the other noted slinger. Obviously Deduno's is higher, but it is comparable.

    In regards to the grip argument, it's true that different grips can offer different movement, but as you can see in this image, he holds a standard four-seam grip.

    Last, biomechanical studies have shown recently that one of the biggest influential factors on a fastball's "sink" is due to the amount of forearm pronation put on the pitch when throwing. Without any super-slo motion cameras from a side or front angle, there's no way of telling how much pronation Deduno puts on his fastball.

  5. #25
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3up3down View Post
    brock, the pens are full of guys that could not be straters for some reason or another, if hes in the pen he eliminates a pitch, he throws his slider for a strike more often than his fastball, so what if he walks 2 , he then strikes out the next 3...have you watched chris perez..
    A few problems with that thinking:

    1. Deduno doesn't strike guys out. He's sitting on a rather paltry 6.5 k/9 ratio in 2012.

    2. MLB bullpens are full of guys who failed as a starter because their secondary pitches were below average. Deduno's problem pitch is his fastball. If he moves to the pen, he still needs to throw that fastball to be successful. He can't live on his curveball. Even the good version of Barry Zito couldn't live on his curveball, never throwing it more than 26.7% of the time. And Barry Zito's curveball was knee-buckling during his prime. Absolutely filthy.

    3. Chris Perez' career stats are 3.8 bb/9 and 8.8 k/9. Samuel Deduno's career stats are 5.8 bb/9 and 6.8 k/9. It's not hard to see why one would be successful out of the pen while the other would be an unmitigated disaster.

  6. #26
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    I'd love to hear a rational reason why Deduno (1.467 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 1.13 K/BB) earned a spot over De Vries (1.209 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 3.22 K/BB -WHIP and K/BB tops for Twins' SPs this season, btw).

    Where rational means excluding references of "unhittable stuff" and earned means performed better than others
    Last edited by Thrylos; 09-21-2012 at 06:10 PM.
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  7. #27
    brock, i see wht your saying......but .... perez would have higher walk rates if he was trying to pitch 6,7 innings.......are you telling me you dont think zito could have got thru one inning throwing nothing but his curve.....there are alot of relievers that rely mostly on one pitch to get them thru 1 inning, deduno could do that for 1 inning.. its a complete different situation..deduno is trying to last 6 innings , he cant throw 90% sliders, even though one game i bet he threw atleast 60%.......we will just have to agree to disagree, but i dont see his control getting better........

    thrylos, my opinion is you have a bunch of #5 starters, that includes deduno,devries,blackburn,walters,hendrix, they are all #5s & if more than one of those guys is in the rotation next year for a extended time, the twins will not be in the playoff race......one of these guys can help the team in the 5th spot but like some have said if they are 3,4& 5 the twins are in deep trouble.....they need to sign or trade for a #1 #2 diamond can be a #3, sign a cheap #4 & may the best man win the #5 spot, but having more than one of these guys in the rotation is disaster..

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul View Post
    ...Some cut, some tail, and some sink. And apparently, nobody, including him, knows which direction the ball is going. Or, even what's causing the variance...
    Willihammer, I agree with everything you say. But my point was centered around the data I've cited from my previous comment. This data is from an article on this site a few weeks back. I find it fascinating that a ML pitcher doesn't know if the ball he's throwing will go right or left or stay up or go down. And ML catchers can't tell either. Watch Doumit in the video. It's like he got crossed up on the pitch. I mentioned my grip discovery as a way of explaining this stay up or go down phenomenon. Maybe I didn't explain it well enough. The grip doesn't eliminate the spin, but rather reduces the rpms and lessens the movement caused by the Magnus effect, much like a split finger FB. Thus appearing to the batter to sink as you described. I've never heard of this grip anyplace, and I've never even spoken of it before, and I doubt that this grip would be intentionally used by a pitcher as they normally want to increase the spin. Also, I know what you mean about Blyleven. But he IS a fountainhead of pitching finer points. If only you can decipher what he's trying to say.

    Parker, from the link showing his grip I agree with you, but his thumb does look to be on the seam. I know from experience that the slight added friction from the seam, rather than the smooth leather, sliding off the thumb REDUCES the rpms. (at least for me) My thought was perhaps he is careless with his grip and this varies the rpms and thusly the sink. In any event, the guy in the video clip is gettin' PLENTY of rpms, and it does look like he pronates a tad.

  9. #29
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3up3down View Post
    thrylos, my opinion is you have a bunch of #5 starters, that includes deduno,devries,blackburn,walters,hendrix, they are all #5s & if more than one of those guys is in the rotation next year for a extended time, the twins will not be in the playoff race......one of these guys can help the team in the 5th spot but like some have said if they are 3,4& 5 the twins are in deep trouble.....they need to sign or trade for a #1 #2 diamond can be a #3, sign a cheap #4 & may the best man win the #5 spot, but having more than one of these guys in the rotation is disaster..
    Pretty much agreed
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  10. #30
    Owner Big-Leaguer Parker Hageman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    I'd love to hear a rational reason why Deduno (1.467 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 1.13 K/BB) earned a spot over De Vries (1.209 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 3.22 K/BB -WHIP and K/BB tops for Twins' SPs this season, btw).

    Where rational means excluding references of "unhittable stuff" and earned means performed better than others
    Well, I suppose it depends on what your definition of earned is.

    But for a rational reason, conventionally, Deduno has a better record (6-4 to 5-5), a better ERA (3.84 to 4.11), allowed fewer runs per nine innings (3.96 to 4.95), allowed fewer home runs per nine (1.0 to 1.6) and hits (7.4 to 9.0). The stats you reference (WHIP and K/BB), it mainly skews to De Vries's side because of Deduno's egregious amount of walks (as referenced in the article). Combine that with what I believe I had presented a superior stuff, I say the scales are tipped in Deduno's favor.

    Now, I am not suggesting anyone has earned a spot but if I had to rank them, and this is nothing against De Vries (who has pitched very well) but I put Deduno ahead of De Vries.
    @OverTheBaggy

  11. #31
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    The only true "lock" for the rotation in 2013 at this point is Diamond. DeDuno has been decent, but I highly doubt he will be handed a spot for 2013 any time soon, will he be in the running and a good shot to make it? yup! But lock at this point?nope.

  12. #32
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul View Post
    ...Some cut, some tail, and some sink. And apparently, nobody, including him, knows which direction the ball is going. Or, even what's causing the variance...
    Willihammer, I agree with everything you say. But my point was centered around the data I've cited from my previous comment. This data is from an article on this site a few weeks back. I find it fascinating that a ML pitcher doesn't know if the ball he's throwing will go right or left or stay up or go down. And ML catchers can't tell either. Watch Doumit in the video. It's like he got crossed up on the pitch. I mentioned my grip discovery as a way of explaining this stay up or go down phenomenon. Maybe I didn't explain it well enough. The grip doesn't eliminate the spin, but rather reduces the rpms and lessens the movement caused by the Magnus effect, much like a split finger FB. Thus appearing to the batter to sink as you described. I've never heard of this grip anyplace, and I've never even spoken of it before, and I doubt that this grip would be intentionally used by a pitcher as they normally want to increase the spin. Also, I know what you mean about Blyleven. But he IS a fountainhead of pitching finer points. If only you can decipher what he's trying to say.

    Parker, from the link showing his grip I agree with you, but his thumb does look to be on the seam. I know from experience that the slight added friction from the seam, rather than the smooth leather, sliding off the thumb REDUCES the rpms. (at least for me) My thought was perhaps he is careless with his grip and this varies the rpms and thusly the sink. In any event, the guy in the video clip is gettin' PLENTY of rpms, and it does look like he pronates a tad.
    I had a teammate in high school who threw a forkball which effectively was a knuckleball - no spin. You really need less than a quarter of a turn to get a truly unpredictable action which could breakl in any direction. Its also very tough to throw a ball 91-92 without heavy spin, so Deduno is definitely getting spin and judging by the brooks baseball page his action is repeatable, on both the 4 seamer and the cutter. In fact, if Doumit is getting confused back there, I suspect its because he just hasn't totally felt out where Deduno likes to throw the cutter and where he likes to throw the 4 seamer. All Doumit knows is that he is putting down a 1. I doubt Deduno himself doesn't know what the pitch is going to do, even if it doesn't hit the target.

  13. #33
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jimbo92107's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul View Post
    ...if Deduno, actively or inadvertently, moves his thumb out or hits a seam with it he might "kill" some of the spin and cause apparent sink.
    The gif isn't a good example of Deduno's sinking fastball; looks more like a two seamer that got away from Doumitt and the batter just had a notion to swing and missed because the ball ran away from the outside corner.

    Thing is, Deduno throws pitches that move so much, both the batter and the catcher have trouble making contact. For Deduno, the key to success is to reduce the movement to a manageable level, and it looks like Rick Anderson has made great progress getting Deduno's fastball reasonably under control.

    Deduno's future as a starter depends entirely on his ability to maintain a modicum of control over that crazy fastball. If the opposition senses him losing command (as they did in a few games this season), they'll just stand there and take walks. He's always going to have to prove he can throw strikes if batters refuse to swing. When that happens, Deduno is going to have to have something he can throw for a strike that's not just a batting practice pitch.

    Absolutely you pencil him into the starting rotation next spring. Then you see if he can actually throw strikes. If so, he's got the best raw stuff on the team. Great fielder, tough competitor, good endurance.

  14. #34
    Owner Big-Leaguer Parker Hageman's Avatar
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    Parker, from the link showing his grip I agree with you, but his thumb does look to be on the seam. I know from experience that the slight added friction from the seam, rather than the smooth leather, sliding off the thumb REDUCES the rpms. (at least for me) My thought was perhaps he is careless with his grip and this varies the rpms and thusly the sink. In any event, the guy in the video clip is gettin' PLENTY of rpms, and it does look like he pronates a tad.
    It's an interesting theory, but I don't necessarily think that is consistent for everyone. For example, Justin Verlander, who has one of the "rising" fastballs, also throws a four-seamer with his thumb on the seams, as seen here. Again, you are correct that grip has some influence on the movement, just not as much to explain Deduno's movement. Overall, I believe it is a combination of things (the arm slot, pronation and possibly grip).

  15. #35
    Owner Big-Leaguer Parker Hageman's Avatar
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    The gif isn't a good example of Deduno's sinking fastball; looks more like a two seamer that got away from Doumitt and the batter just had a notion to swing and missed because the ball ran away from the outside corner.
    First, Deduno does not throw a two-seamer. It's all four-seam fastball action.

    This specific .gif'ed pitch has plenty of downward sink and arm side run (the above camera angle at Target Field sometimes does not provide great context). Pitch F/X says the vertical movement was sub-2.5 meaning it dropped quite a bit from the starting point.

    However, if you want an example of just the straight downward drop on his fastball, the sinking fastball he throws to Casey Kotchman at the 1:33 mark is just breathtaking.

  16. #36
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3up3down View Post
    brock, i see wht your saying......but .... perez would have higher walk rates if he was trying to pitch 6,7 innings.......are you telling me you dont think zito could have got thru one inning throwing nothing but his curve.....there are alot of relievers that rely mostly on one pitch to get them thru 1 inning, deduno could do that for 1 inning.. its a complete different situation..deduno is trying to last 6 innings , he cant throw 90% sliders, even though one game i bet he threw atleast 60%.......we will just have to agree to disagree, but i dont see his control getting better........
    Could Zito make it through one inning with just his curve? Sure.

    Could Zito make it through one inning 50 times with just his curve? Absolutely not.

    The curveball works when it is paired with a much faster pitch. Throwing only 70mph curveballs will allow a hitter to sit on the pitch all day long, waiting for the curveball that doesn't curve. The pitcher needs to keep batters honest by throwing a fastball alongside it to keep the hitter off-balance. Deduno's fastball and slider are too wildly inconsistent to complement his curveball over one inning of work. Even if he struck guys out (which he doesn't), he'd still be too wild to be a good reliever.

    And Perez wouldn't walk more batters if he was a starter (assuming it didn't require him to add another pitch he couldn't control). He'd certainly strike out less of them (you can throw at 100% for 20 pitches in an outing... throwing at 100% for 100 pitches is a good way to blow out your arm) but there's no reason to think he'd walk more as a starter. Control is control is control. You either have it or you don't. Since Deduno can't drop the wildest pitch in his arsenal, the fastball, there's no reason to think he would cut down on walks as a reliever and the Perez comp still doesn't hold muster.

  17. #37
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parker Hageman View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    I'd love to hear a rational reason why Deduno (1.467 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 1.13 K/BB) earned a spot over De Vries (1.209 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 3.22 K/BB -WHIP and K/BB tops for Twins' SPs this season, btw).

    Where rational means excluding references of "unhittable stuff" and earned means performed better than others
    Well, I suppose it depends on what your definition of earned is.

    But for a rational reason, conventionally, Deduno has a better record (6-4 to 5-5), a better ERA (3.84 to 4.11), allowed fewer runs per nine innings (3.96 to 4.95), allowed fewer home runs per nine (1.0 to 1.6) and hits (7.4 to 9.0). The stats you reference (WHIP and K/BB), it mainly skews to De Vries's side because of Deduno's egregious amount of walks (as referenced in the article). Combine that with what I believe I had presented a superior stuff, I say the scales are tipped in Deduno's favor.

    Now, I am not suggesting anyone has earned a spot but if I had to rank them, and this is nothing against De Vries (who has pitched very well) but I put Deduno ahead of De Vries.

    So Deduno has better RA9, better winning %, better quality start % than Diamond (and equal HR%) and better K/9.
    Do you put him ahead of Diamond too? If not, why?
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  18. #38
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    After watching the game today....NO THANK YOU...nice flash in the pan now get him out of here

  19. #39
    Speediest Moderator All-Star snepp's Avatar
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    I can't wait.
    "Maybe you could go grab a bat and ballÖ and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
    - Strib commenter educating the elitists on the value of RBI's

  20. #40
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    No! he has earned an opportunity to come into spring training with a chance to earn a spot. But no more.

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