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Thread: Mackey: Joe Mauer an OBP freak.

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    Owner All-Star Parker Hageman's Avatar
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    Mackey: Joe Mauer an OBP freak.

    Good stuff by 1500ESPN.com's Phillip Mackey on why we should be more interested in Mauer's OBP rather than his home run totals.

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    Senior Member Triple-A
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    Nice. Thanks for posting.

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Good article.

    Does this mean that the rest of the civilized Twins world will finally realize that OBP is the most important part of the game and that Moneyball wasn't propaganda?

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Ooh and he cites Fangraphs for Mauer's value . . . that apparently is a no-no around here . . .

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Ooh and he cites Fangraphs for Mauer's value . . . that apparently is a no-no around here . . .
    Well, that's because players are paid in diminishing returns. A player will only get a certain amount of money, no matter how valuable he is as a player. The system is flawed because it's not represented in reality, not because there's anything inherently wrong with the math itself. No player will get $40m a year, even if they post numbers like a juiced Barry Bonds. The player may *technically* be worth that much in pure mathematical terms but no team will offer anything close to that number in reality.

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    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    No player will get $40m a year, even if they post numbers like a juiced Barry Bonds. The player may *technically* be worth that much in pure mathematical terms but no team will offer anything close to that number in reality.
    A-Rod gets 30 million a year, if someone could prove to post a 1.150 OPS year in year out they could probably command close to 40 mil a year at this point.

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    No player will get $40m a year, even if they post numbers like a juiced Barry Bonds. The player may *technically* be worth that much in pure mathematical terms but no team will offer anything close to that number in reality.
    A-Rod gets 30 million a year, if someone could prove to post a 1.150 OPS year in year out they could probably command close to 40 mil a year at this point.
    Albert Pujols is going to earn $30m in the last year of his contract. It's going to be awhile until we see a player hit $40m.

    Anyway, that's beside the point. By the time someone makes $40m a year, Fangraphs will say some players are "worth" $60m. Again, diminishing returns in actual player "worth" versus mathematical "worth".

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    Speediest Moderator All-Star snepp's Avatar
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    Hypothetical for discussion's sake, what would free agent Pujols have made this season is he were willing to sign a 1-year contract? 30 million? 35?

    How much is additional contract length worth compared to yearly salary?
    "Maybe you could go grab a bat and ball… and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
    - Strib commenter educating the elitists on the value of RBI's

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snepp View Post
    Hypothetical for discussion's sake, what would free agent Pujols have made this season is he were willing to sign a 1-year contract? 30 million? 35?

    How much is additional contract length worth compared to yearly salary?
    Yeah that is the underlying issue. Players WOULD get paid substantially more if they signed one year contracts. Pujols has four seasons over 1.100 OPS. I would say that the Fangraphs issue has more to do with treating things on a yearly basis.

  10. #10
    I love how the stats guys tell us that OPS is a great stat, and how it's a much better stat than batting average, etc., etc.....until we talk about Mauer. When it comes to MAUER, what REALLY matters is his on-base percentage.

    So the fact that Mauer has the 24th best OPS in baseball (behind David Murphy, Aaron Hill, Josh Willingham, Allen Craig, in a GOOD Mauer year (as in, one where he's fully healthy and doing what Mauer does every year besides 2009) at $24 million a year shouldn't concern us, right? I mean, crap, Ian Desmond and Dexter Fowler are 27th and 28th on that list.

    I'm not saying Mauer's not a good player. Yes, he's an on-base machine. But you can't cut out the bad parts of the narrative just to make your point. You can't marvel at all his walks while ignoring that his outstanding contact rate and plate patience still add up to 2nd- or 3rd-tier hitter when combined with his very average extra base hit totals. And much like the Trout versus Cabrera debate, you need to also figure in the fact that he's now a below-average defender at catcher, and a part-time catcher at that (11% caught stealing rate, has actually gone UP as of late).

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by StormJH1 View Post
    I love how the stats guys tell us that OPS is a great stat, and how it's a much better stat than batting average, etc., etc.....until we talk about Mauer. When it comes to MAUER, what REALLY matters is his on-base percentage.
    You're talking to the wrong "stat guys". Every stat guy who knows the game says that OPS is flawed. Why? Because it weights slugging the same as OBP, which is absolutely not the case when it comes to player valuation. OBP>>>>>>SLG. Gleeman came up with a formula to counter that flaw in OPS with his GPA formula.

    OPS is a good quick and dirty stat when you want to quickly find out relevant information about a player. It is NOT intended for nuanced analysis.

    In any case, OPS is still better than BA, which is virtually useless on its own. According to BA, Miguel Cabrera and Joe Mauer are basically the same player. Yeah, nothing incomplete about that statistic.

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