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Thread: Span vs. Revere OPS

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Span vs. Revere OPS

    .750 to .676 right now. I understand that there is a 21 stolen base differential that mildly offsets the slugging difference, but still a .74 OPS difference does NOT mean replacement to me. I still do not like the idea of trading Span before Aaron Hicks is fully ready to step into Span's role.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    .750 to .676 right now. I understand that there is a 21 stolen base differential that mildly offsets the slugging difference, but still a .74 OPS difference does NOT mean replacement to me. I still do not like the idea of trading Span before Aaron Hicks is fully ready to step into Span's role.
    The hope would be by midseason Hicks can step in. A trade deadline deal might bring a better return for Span than an off season deal. However, if a good deal can be made during the off season, do it. If the Mets want to give up Zach Wheeler for Span and a decent prospect not named Hicks, Arcia, Rosario or Sano, well bring on Revere as CF. The Phillies also have decent pitching prospects to trade for.
    Last edited by old nurse; 09-19-2012 at 01:31 AM.

  3. #3
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    .750 to .676 right now. I understand that there is a 21 stolen base differential that mildly offsets the slugging difference, but still a .74 OPS difference does NOT mean replacement to me. I still do not like the idea of trading Span before Aaron Hicks is fully ready to step into Span's role.
    And yet if I recall correctly you love the idea of dumping Morneau (.802) for Parmelee (.699).

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    Senior Member All-Star 70charger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    .750 to .676 right now. I understand that there is a 21 stolen base differential that mildly offsets the slugging difference, but still a .74 OPS difference does NOT mean replacement to me. I still do not like the idea of trading Span before Aaron Hicks is fully ready to step into Span's role.
    Doesn't seem like it's really the point.

    It's comparative advantage. Is it worth it to give up .74 OPS in exchange for the potentially far more impactful starting pitching we could get in return for Span? Yup. Don't compare the wrong things. We're not talking about giving up Span because we don't like him.

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    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 70charger View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    .750 to .676 right now. I understand that there is a 21 stolen base differential that mildly offsets the slugging difference, but still a .74 OPS difference does NOT mean replacement to me. I still do not like the idea of trading Span before Aaron Hicks is fully ready to step into Span's role.
    Doesn't seem like it's really the point.

    It's comparative advantage. Is it worth it to give up .74 OPS in exchange for the potentially far more impactful starting pitching we could get in return for Span? Yup. Don't compare the wrong things. We're not talking about giving up Span because we don't like him.
    Im just quoting your post Charger... cuz I thought it was great.

    Shane... I'd love to have both Revere and Span. I like them both going forward. It's pitching... We need pitching. If Revere gets the better pitcher in return. Say goodbye to the little guy. If none of them bring back pitching or a decent middle infielder. Keep them both. We need depth as well.

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    .750 to .676 right now. I understand that there is a 21 stolen base differential that mildly offsets the slugging difference, but still a .74 OPS difference does NOT mean replacement to me. I still do not like the idea of trading Span before Aaron Hicks is fully ready to step into Span's role.
    And yet if I recall correctly you love the idea of dumping Morneau (.802) for Parmelee (.699).
    I think that the .886 OPS post all-star game for Parmelee is more telling than his season numbers, a season that the Twins tried to ruin for him initially. The analogy does not hold.

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    In a trade, it's all about net gain. Let's throw out some hypotheticals. Span is a 5 WAR player this season. Revere is a 2 WAR player. If Revere progresses at all and moves to CF next season, let's say he becomes a 3 WAR player due to positional scarcity. That's a difference of -2 WAR, not including any +/- we'll see from Parmelee (which I think would be at least a 2 WAR player over the course of a season in RF). That's also not factoring in any advancement from the likes of Hicks or Arcia in 2013.

    So, we need to cover a 2 WAR loss.

    Well, it just so happens that PJ Walters is almost a -1 WAR pitcher in less than 10 starts. Let's say the Twins can get a decent, though unspectacular, 3 WAR pitcher for Span. That's brings the total to...

    Outfield:
    Revere (3 WAR) - Span (5 WAR) = -2 WAR

    Pitching:
    Pitcher X (3 WAR) - PJ Walters (-1 WAR in a quarter of a season) = 4 WAR.

    Net gain? 2 WAR. That makes the Twins a better team and those estimates are very conservative. I think the swing could be as much as 5-6 WAR if Parmelee/Hicks/Arcia pan out and the acquired pitcher is decent.

  8. #8
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by 70charger View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    .750 to .676 right now. I understand that there is a 21 stolen base differential that mildly offsets the slugging difference, but still a .74 OPS difference does NOT mean replacement to me. I still do not like the idea of trading Span before Aaron Hicks is fully ready to step into Span's role.
    Doesn't seem like it's really the point.

    It's comparative advantage. Is it worth it to give up .74 OPS in exchange for the potentially far more impactful starting pitching we could get in return for Span? Yup. Don't compare the wrong things. We're not talking about giving up Span because we don't like him.
    Im just quoting your post Charger... cuz I thought it was great.

    Shane... I'd love to have both Revere and Span. I like them both going forward. It's pitching... We need pitching. If Revere gets the better pitcher in return. Say goodbye to the little guy. If none of them bring back pitching or a decent middle infielder. Keep them both. We need depth as well.
    Yes, the Twins do need pitching. It seems foolish for them to first think trade-for-pitching, though. Anyway, I see Revere as playing himself out of the top of the order. Trading Span as well leaves a big hole at the top.

  9. #9
    Revere has to prove an able Span replacement. He steals bases, but so does Casilla,,so does Mastro. Span has shown consistency. Revere has yet to do so and if he doesn't finish the season above .300, he is just another cog in the system. Revere does have a smile, coves ground and is enthusiastic. But with Hicks, Arcia (and still Benson) in the wings...do you stay with two more years of Span (who is only tradable during the season) or the exciting basepath promise of Revere. Revere is exciting, but he has to learn to bunt or chop, And take more pitches (shades of Carlos Gomez).
    Joel Thingvall
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    rosterman at www.twinscards.com

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    In a trade, it's all about net gain. Let's throw out some hypotheticals. Span is a 5 WAR player this season. Revere is a 2 WAR player. If Revere progresses at all and moves to CF next season, let's say he becomes a 3 WAR player due to positional scarcity. That's a difference of -2 WAR, not including any +/- we'll see from Parmelee (which I think would be at least a 2 WAR player over the course of a season in RF). That's also not factoring in any advancement from the likes of Hicks or Arcia in 2013.

    So, we need to cover a 2 WAR loss.

    Well, it just so happens that PJ Walters is almost a -1 WAR pitcher in less than 10 starts. Let's say the Twins can get a decent, though unspectacular, 3 WAR pitcher for Span. That's brings the total to...

    Outfield:
    Revere (3 WAR) - Span (5 WAR) = -2 WAR

    Pitching:
    Pitcher X (3 WAR) - PJ Walters (-1 WAR in a quarter of a season) = 4 WAR.

    Net gain? 2 WAR. That makes the Twins a better team and those estimates are very conservative. I think the swing could be as much as 5-6 WAR if Parmelee/Hicks/Arcia pan out and the acquired pitcher is decent.
    I agree. Primarily, making this team better is a big "it depends". If you are not going to pay for a few free agent pitchers, you have to trade someone to get pitching. Span seems to be the asset we can potentially live without (maybe moving Morneau).

  11. #11
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Twins Twerp's Avatar
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    Don't quote WAR, it is such a scam. Put this into your stupid I-pad/computer/I-phone, Our pitching is downright terrible. The differnce between Span and Revere is small. What you lose with Revere in OPS and arm strength, you gain in baserunning and taking hits away. Revere is faster than Span, and is especially better at baserunning. Span does not get the whole baserunning thing. I have never seen someone so good at getting picked off at first. Where do you put that into WAR? What part of WAR measures how a guy hits away from his home field, or how a guy can't hit because he is worried about being traded around the trade deadline.

    Let's just stop playing games, and start putting numbers into a computer and name the Oakland A's the Wolrd series champs, because they get on base alot and made a movie with Brad Pitt about it.

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    Um, um

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    I'm not hung up on whether or not Revere can directly replace span. Revere is pretty much guaranteed to be in the starting lineup next season regardless. My biggest concern is that the Twins have basically made their decision and they will sell span low for a crappy MLB ready starter.

  14. #14
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Aha, so Twins Twerp is the TT known on various Twins sites. The Granny Baseball guy?

    If not, the coincidence is astounding.

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    Don't quote WAR, it is such a scam. Put this into your stupid I-pad/computer/I-phone, Our pitching is downright terrible. The differnce between Span and Revere is small. What you lose with Revere in OPS and arm strength, you gain in baserunning and taking hits away. Revere is faster than Span, and is especially better at baserunning. Span does not get the whole baserunning thing. I have never seen someone so good at getting picked off at first. Where do you put that into WAR? What part of WAR measures how a guy hits away from his home field, or how a guy can't hit because he is worried about being traded around the trade deadline.

    Let's just stop playing games, and start putting numbers into a computer and name the Oakland A's the Wolrd series champs, because they get on base alot and made a movie with Brad Pitt about it.
    Yes, god forbid that a GM use advanced metrics to supplement an eyeball test. Good GMs just wing it and hope for the best. It's the only way to run a billion dollar operation, really.

  16. #16
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post

    Yes, god forbid that a GM use advanced metrics to supplement an eyeball test. Good GMs just wing it and hope for the best. It's the only way to run a billion dollar operation, really.
    "WAR" and "advanced metric" are not necessarily the same thing.

  17. #17
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post

    Yes, god forbid that a GM use advanced metrics to supplement an eyeball test. Good GMs just wing it and hope for the best. It's the only way to run a billion dollar operation, really.
    "WAR" and "advanced metric" are not necessarily the same thing.
    Read TT's post again. It wasn't solely an attack on WAR. He did everything except yell "get out of your parents' basements and learn something".

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    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Outfield:
    Revere (3 WAR) - Span (5 WAR) = -2 WAR

    Pitching:
    Pitcher X (3 WAR) - PJ Walters (-1 WAR in a quarter of a season) = 4 WAR.

    Net gain? 2 WAR. That makes the Twins a better team and those estimates are very conservative. I think the swing could be as much as 5-6 WAR if Parmelee/Hicks/Arcia pan out and the acquired pitcher is decent.
    Honest question, Brock: Why do you put so much stock into WAR as an assessment of value when you've clearly demonstrated in the past that you have little faith in UZR and other defensive metrics? I agree with what you're saying but the way you've presented this argument isn't very compelling to me.

    Anyway, like others have pointed out, no one is claiming that Revere is going to be able to replace Span without the offense missing a beat. But the Twins have outfield depth that is only likely to grow going forward, and they have significant needs elsewhere. At this point, Span is probably their most valuable trading chip (outside of maybe Willingham but he's just not going anywhere). Revere is, at worst, a decent placeholder.

    Also, Shane, why you assuming that Revere is what he is at this point? He's 24, in his second big-league season, and he showed significant improvement from Year 1 to Year 2. When Span was his age, he was just finally figuring things out in Triple-A.

  19. #19
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post

    Read TT's post again.
    No thanks.

    It does seem rather inconsistent of you, though, to cite WAR in this thread and then pooh-pooh it in another--when it shows data you discount--all within the space of a few hours.

  20. #20
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    .750 to .676 right now. I understand that there is a 21 stolen base differential that mildly offsets the slugging difference, but still a .74 OPS difference does NOT mean replacement to me. I still do not like the idea of trading Span before Aaron Hicks is fully ready to step into Span's role.
    And yet if I recall correctly you love the idea of dumping Morneau (.802) for Parmelee (.699).
    I think that the .886 OPS post all-star game for Parmelee is more telling than his season numbers, a season that the Twins tried to ruin for him initially. The analogy does not hold.
    The 60 PAs "post all-star game for Parmelee" you mean?

    OK, tell me what Morneau's second half numbers look like.

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