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Thread: Trade Revere, Not Span

  1. #41
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SydneyTwinsFan View Post
    Ben ....... gets a large amount of hits on bloop/infield hits which aren't as effective with runners on base
    Doesn't this suggest he would be more effective leading off?
    No, because it's not a sustainable way to get on base. He'll always run into slumps which trickles down the line up. Also, there will be situations where the lead off hitter needs to come through with runners on.

    Let me ask, if it's the 9th inning 2 outs with a runner on second who would you rather see at the plate? Denard or Ben? Needing a bunt to move a runner over, who would you rather see at the plate? To lead off an inning in a 1 run game, who would you rather see at the plate? I can't think of situations where Denard isn't a more ideal hitter. As I mentioned I think they should trade Denard cause he has much more value but the slight difference between speed and defensive range does not make up the gap in ability at the plate. I like Revere, I'm rooting for him to be successful, but I have always thought he has the ceiling of Juan Pierre offensively and is a 4th OF on a winning team. I do agree that Aaron Hicks is the future, I love his upside.
    You got that backwards... The ability to get an infield hit keeps you out of slumps. Slumps come when you stop making solid contact for a stretch. The ability to beat out an infield hit keeps you somewhat productive through those times. The infield hit doesn't make you more prone to slumps... It is the exact opposite.

    Span is a better leadoff hitter because he does a better job working the count and drawing a walk. Revere is better in the two spot because when he reaches base he's a baserunning distraction for the pitcher which is a real benefit for Joe Mauer hitting after.

    Hitting leadoff is only guarenteed in the 1st inning. If Denard Span makes the last out in the 3rd inning... Ben Revere will be leading off in the 4th.

    Two outs runner on 2nd... I'll take Ben because he has a higher batting average and makes better contact. We don't need a double or walk in that situation.

    Needing a bunt to move a runner over.... I rarely see Denard Bunt. I'm not sure... I'd hope that Willingham can get a bunt down if it's that needed.

    Leading off an inning down a run in the ninth... I'd go with Span here but Revere doesn't scare me at all.

    The Gap at the plate isn't that large and the Gap in the Field isn't that large.

  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Gun View Post
    Trade any Ofer you can for front line SP.
    Amen to that. Add Morneau and Doumit to list.

    Trade whomever will bring in starting pitching or a good 2B. The only ones I would not trade are the young ones (Benson, Parmalee, Hicks, etc.)

  3. #43
    At some point, probably much sooner rather than later, don't you have to get rid of either Span or Revere to clear the log jam that's about to emerge in the OF? If it's me, I'd rather trade the guy who will turn 29 before next season, is hurt all the time and pouts at the mere suggestion the Twins might be better if he moved to right so Revere could play center.

  4. #44
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    don't trade for a middle infielder, I feel that is stupid. Because the type of middle infielders the Twins would target in a trade, are just more expensive versions of what they can find in AAA. (not much)

    The reason you trade Span over Revere, is A. more value, B. in an OF lineup with Parmelee and Willingham, Revere is the better CF, because he covers more ground. And C age, Span is 4 years older, which means if every year you hold on you are probably going to lose value. Whereas Revere you don't, you can hold onto him for 2-3 years and still retain the same value, or even gain more.

    An OFer needs to be traded, and I'd actually say 2 if they plan on using Parmelee in the OF. Revere is cheaper, and is not at the peak of his value like Span.

  5. #45
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by joeboo_22 View Post
    Revere is cheaper, and is not at the peak of his value like Span.
    If you are an opposing GM who wants an outfielder, why would you not make the same assessment, and offer less in trade for Span than you would for Revere?

  6. #46
    My thoughts on Revere have evolved a little bit as he's continued to evolve as a ballplayer. But make no mistake - we're seeing basically what his ceiling is already. His defensive range is very good, and it's not going to get any better. His arm keeps him from being a true elite defender, because baserunners round 2nd base at will on him when he's in RF, or even on a deep hit single to CF.

    As for his offense, he is very good at making contact when he swings, and his speed is going to make him more likely to beat out grounders than, say, Joe Mauer. But that's really where it ends for him. Juan Pierre is a great comparison - guy with CRAZY elite speed and a left handed bat that several teams tried to make into a leadoff hitter. Yet, despite a career .296 average, he's basically a .700 OPS hitter because of (a) the absolute lack of power; and (b) the inability to take a lot of walks when pitchers aren't afraid to go right after you. Once you're in the majors, (b) is the result of (a). It doesn't really matter if he has a great eye or not. Even in Mauer's case, while he certainly could be a more powerful hitter, pitchers do have in the back of their head that a meatball could end up being a double in the gap, or possibly even a homerun.

    Still, I think you have to keep Revere over Span because he's younger, cheaper, and more durable, and Span is never going to step it up for a career year where he plays 150+ games going forward. Unfortunately, I think other teams have figured that out also, but if you can get somebody to pick up that contract and give us anything useful in return, I really don't think Span's presence helps us in this lineup when Revere is an available alternative.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post

    You got that backwards... The ability to get an infield hit keeps you out of slumps. Slumps come when you stop making solid contact for a stretch. The ability to beat out an infield hit keeps you somewhat productive through those times. The infield hit doesn't make you more prone to slumps... It is the exact opposite.

    Span is a better leadoff hitter because he does a better job working the count and drawing a walk. Revere is better in the two spot because when he reaches base he's a baserunning distraction for the pitcher which is a real benefit for Joe Mauer hitting after.

    Hitting leadoff is only guarenteed in the 1st inning. If Denard Span makes the last out in the 3rd inning... Ben Revere will be leading off in the 4th.

    Two outs runner on 2nd... I'll take Ben because he has a higher batting average and makes better contact. We don't need a double or walk in that situation.

    Needing a bunt to move a runner over.... I rarely see Denard Bunt. I'm not sure... I'd hope that Willingham can get a bunt down if it's that needed.

    Leading off an inning down a run in the ninth... I'd go with Span here but Revere doesn't scare me at all.

    The Gap at the plate isn't that large and the Gap in the Field isn't that large.
    If that is the case why is it that Ben has had huge slumps in back to back years? It's because it's not a sustainable way to get on base. You're right about making solid contact, but Ben doesn't consistently do that, contact yes, but not "solid".

    With a runner on second, You would take Ben because he has a higher BA? It's a .013 difference in BA this season and steadily declining. Denard has been a consistent hitter throughout his career and has a higher career BA with a much larger sample size. He is also more likely to get the ball out of the infield.

    As far as bunting, Denard is terrific at getting a bunt down when he needs to, either direction, although he's especially good at the drag bunt. I guess you don't remember those games this season where Ben popped up bunts late in the game where they needed to move a runner over, or maybe it's selective memory like the myth that Ben doesn't get picked off.

    I like both players, but I don't like the way people bash Denard. I'm just trying to point out his strengths, unfortunately I have to point out Ben's weaknesses. I have agreed from the beginning I would trade Denard first, but don't tell me there isn't currently a huge gap at the plate, cause the numbers and more importantly my eyes tell me otherwise. This obviously might change with Denard aging and hopefully Ben developing.

  8. #48
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Here is another possible comp: Bret Gardner. 9 HRs in 1700 minor league PAs (5 in low-A) to 5 for Revere (same PAs). Revere drew half as many walks, but struck out half as much. .776 OPS to Revere's .787. 157 SBs to 160. At the MLB level, Gardner saves better than 30 runs/year playing LF. Revere (small samples) saves 15 runs/150 games, playing all positions. However the Yankees didn't give Gardner full time duty till he was 26 years old. He is 29 now and his window for elite speed is about to close. Speed doesn't age as well as power. And Span will be 29 next spring. Revere will be 25, his window for elite speed is wide open for the next 4-5 years.

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by ericchri View Post
    Trade both. One this offseason and one at next year's deadline. Hicks just profiles as a more complete player than either of those two if he continues to live up to his potential, such that I think he makes a better CF than either. Leave the corners for the guys who can flat-out hit (Willingham, Arcia). Hicks looks to be a better base-stealer with more pop than Span, more plate discipline and a better arm than Revere. Not really inferior in anything to either of them. Again, assuming he continues the play he finally showed this year. Of course he's still only played at AA, so he could flame out, but then we just wait for Buxton while filling in with Benson/Mastroianni.
    This 100%
    If they want to hold onto Revere as a 4th OF type, then deal only Span but Gardy isnt the type to handle this correctly.
    Go with the talent & that is Hicks ASAP. IF they want to start the year with Hicks in AAA, CF can start out with Mastro out there for the first month or 2 till this cheap organizaiton calls him up

  10. #50
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post

    You got that backwards... The ability to get an infield hit keeps you out of slumps. Slumps come when you stop making solid contact for a stretch. The ability to beat out an infield hit keeps you somewhat productive through those times. The infield hit doesn't make you more prone to slumps... It is the exact opposite.

    Span is a better leadoff hitter because he does a better job working the count and drawing a walk. Revere is better in the two spot because when he reaches base he's a baserunning distraction for the pitcher which is a real benefit for Joe Mauer hitting after.

    Hitting leadoff is only guarenteed in the 1st inning. If Denard Span makes the last out in the 3rd inning... Ben Revere will be leading off in the 4th.

    Two outs runner on 2nd... I'll take Ben because he has a higher batting average and makes better contact. We don't need a double or walk in that situation.

    Needing a bunt to move a runner over.... I rarely see Denard Bunt. I'm not sure... I'd hope that Willingham can get a bunt down if it's that needed.

    Leading off an inning down a run in the ninth... I'd go with Span here but Revere doesn't scare me at all.

    The Gap at the plate isn't that large and the Gap in the Field isn't that large.
    If that is the case why is it that Ben has had huge slumps in back to back years? It's because it's not a sustainable way to get on base. You're right about making solid contact, but Ben doesn't consistently do that, contact yes, but not "solid".

    With a runner on second, You would take Ben because he has a higher BA? It's a .013 difference in BA this season and steadily declining. Denard has been a consistent hitter throughout his career and has a higher career BA with a much larger sample size. He is also more likely to get the ball out of the infield.

    As far as bunting, Denard is terrific at getting a bunt down when he needs to, either direction, although he's especially good at the drag bunt. I guess you don't remember those games this season where Ben popped up bunts late in the game where they needed to move a runner over, or maybe it's selective memory like the myth that Ben doesn't get picked off.

    I like both players, but I don't like the way people bash Denard. I'm just trying to point out his strengths, unfortunately I have to point out Ben's weaknesses. I have agreed from the beginning I would trade Denard first, but don't tell me there isn't currently a huge gap at the plate, cause the numbers and more importantly my eyes tell me otherwise. This obviously might change with Denard aging and hopefully Ben developing.
    All players slump and slump hard at times. For a variety of reasons. If they didn't... The .400 hitter would be a lot more normal. I just can't go along with the assertion that bloops and infield hits make you more prone to slumps.

    You can't say Ben slumps more than others. If Ben slumps harder than others... You would have to also say that he gets hotter than others as well because his average is higher than others. Nothing like a hot player.

    I contend his ability to leg one out is a plus during a slump stretch. Seems logical to me.

    To me it's not worth discussing who you want up with a runner on 2nd... Down by a run and two outs. I'm OK with both of them. I picked Ben over Denard by a hair and it was batting average based. Not just this year but throughout their careers. In that situation... I'll take the higher batting average. Even if it's slight... Ultimately... I want the guy who is hotter at that point in time. Some days it will be Ben and some days it will be Denard. Although the experience factor would give the edge to Span I suppose. If we are down by two... I'll take Span but I'm probably pinch hitting for both and trotting up Jack Cust.

    Bunts... The team doesn't do a lot of bunting. Is Span better? I have no idea... If the situation arises... I'd want all of them to get a bunt down. As for Ben popping up a bunt or two. Yeah... And he's gotten bunts down. I'd put down the branding iron. Not enough bunting happening to draw a complete picture.

    Personally... I don't like bunting unless you are dragging for a hit. Bunts are such a rare thing that it's barely a factor.

    I don't think it's necessary to bash either player. Span is a great hitter. So is Ben... Neither of them are blessed with power and both can run and both play great defense and neither have good arms. Denard is more valuable because he is experienced... Ben is more valuable because he is young.

    The reason to trade either of them is for Pitching. We need pitching... If Ben fetches a better pitcher than he's the guy to trade. I'm guessing Span has more value but I'm only guessing. If we don't get decent pitching in return..l see no reason to trade either of them. They are both fine players and we really don't know what we have on Arcia and Hicks yet. Bird in hand... Two in the Bush.

  11. #51
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by StormJH1 View Post
    Yet, despite a career .296 average, he's basically a .700 OPS hitter
    I'm with you mostly when it comes to OPS from a team perspective. However, if you are careful, you can get a lot of value from a table-setter or two who brings only a stellar OBP to the table. A .700 OPS like Pierre could be acceptable if it comes from .350 OBP.

    But fill up your roster with too many table-setters, and you end up with, well, some of the troubles we saw the Twins go through this year, where it takes 3 hits/walks to score a run while more powerful lineups get the job done with 2 successful plate appearances or even just one. Even worse is when you have a couple of guys in the lineup such as Carroll and Casilla whose upside is only as table-setter but can't even really achieve that.

    Anyway, with Span still on the team there is not need for much more in the way of pure table-setting. But if he's gone next year there is room for someone with Revere's ceiling as a hitter, if he can improve his walk rate.

  12. #52
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by StormJH1 View Post
    Juan Pierre is a great comparison - guy with CRAZY elite speed and a left handed bat that several teams tried to make into a leadoff hitter. Yet, despite a career .296 average, he's basically a .700 OPS hitter because of (a) the absolute lack of power; and (b) the inability to take a lot of walks when pitchers aren't afraid to go right after you. Once you're in the majors, (b) is the result of (a). It doesn't really matter if he has a great eye or not. Even in Mauer's case, while he certainly could be a more powerful hitter, pitchers do have in the back of their head that a meatball could end up being a double in the gap, or possibly even a homerun.

    .
    I'm not sure if this is a pro or con statement about Juan Pierre.

    If it's Pro... I Agree... The Numbers look great to me.

    If it's Con. Not everyone can be Ryan Braun and besides Ryan Braun type players cost a lot of money. Very few teams can afford a lineup filled with Ryan Braun and Robinson Cano. The Big OPS Guys cost a lot of money.

    I believe a winning baseball team is a balanced team. You need Speed and You need Power... You need Pitching and Defense and the guy who can get a key hit or simply move runners over. You need to manufacture a run on occasion and you need a guy who can swat a three run homer every once in awhile. You need the Big Stars and lesser names hungry for recognition and a future. It's balance... It's all about not making outs on Offense and Making outs on Defense. Neglect one area and you will most likely struggle.

    I've seen teams that have loaded up on the Power Bats and Failed. Raise your hand if the Dombroski built 2008 Tigers scared ya a little. It didn't work and the Tigers were looking for balance the next year.

    Juan Pierre can play for my team.

    The Twins balance is off because of the Pitching and overall depth. We are gonna have to get some pitching. If it costs us some offense. So be it. We have to restore some balance.

  13. #53
    I'm puzzled by a lot of derisive comments comparing Revere to Juan Pierre as a way of arguing the Twins should ditch Revere before Span. Juan Pierre is a better player than Denard Span will ever be. Pierre has 2,100 career hits and could end his career in the neighborhood of 2,500. If Ben Revere has Juan Pierre's career he should be very grateful.
    Last edited by TK10; 09-07-2012 at 03:40 PM.

  14. #54
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TK10 View Post
    I'm puzzled by a lot of derisive comments comparing Revere to Juan Pierre as a way of arguing the Twins should ditch Revere before Span. Juan Pierre is a better player than Denard Span will ever be. Pierre has 2,100 career hits and could end his career in the neighborhood of 2,500. If Ben Revere has Juan Pierre's career he should be very grateful.
    Juan Pierre, 13 seasons, 14.7 WAR.

    Denard Span, 5 seasons, 15.6 WAR.

    Denard Span is a better player than Pierre. He's a CF (Pierre stopped playing center at age 29), will take a walk, and has a career average only .011 below Pierre. The only thing Pierre did better than Span was steal bases.

  15. #55
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    I will be really happy if Span or Revere have the career that Pierre has had. I think Revere is more valuab
    I'm worried the Denard is starting to break down. Because of that I would trade Span, and go with Revere until the young prospects prove they are ready.
    I am also wondering if Span has somehow put himself into either Gardenhire's or Ryan's doghouse. Anyone have insight on that?

  16. #56
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    Acctaully Revere has nearly double the UZR span has and is a much better base stealer. you also have to factor in that he is younger

  17. #57
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    Why do people keep saying Span is breaking down? He's played in 108 out of 137 games this year. A lot of those were days off and another 2 weeks were wasted trying to play through an injury he sustained while making a great catch for his team, when he could have been getting treatment and rehabbing. This is his first stint on the DL this year. His concussion last year was on a play where he was trying to score a run, once again, for his team! This was his 5th year in the league not his 15th, the guy has plenty of baseball left. Maybe from now on he shouldn't dive for balls in the outfield and pull up before he has a collision at the plate. Then maybe he'll get some respect for his play and not be called "fragile".

  18. #58
    There just isnt anything that Span does well. He's decent at alot of things. Not a starter anymore on a .500+ team (why he can start here).
    Get rid of him while he's still decent at certain things before those start to fail him.
    Revere is only as good as his BAve. Hit .260 not worth starting.... hit .300 decent starter....hit .325 a starter. Classic 4th OF who's GM is not a fan of him but his manager thinks is an everyday player cause he's stuck in 70s/80s era baseball (bat leadoff is you steal bases etc)
    Hicks shows star potential....something neither guy showed in minors. Dont fight Aaron being the CF of future as Gardy will

  19. #59
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Span, Willingham, Arcia, Hicks, Parmelee, Benson, etc. There are just too many players that will be better options than Revere that it makes sense to sell on him high. I just don't like the way some see Revere as a staple for the next few years.

  20. #60
    Pierre has four 200+ hit seasons and another season with 196 and has 40+ steals 12 times. Span can't carry Pierre's jock.

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