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Thread: Twins top 10 prospects

  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    It will be an interesting year for Sano next year. He has to start to be able to field the ball better and throw with some accuracy. He will also need to cut down on strikeouts and make contact more often.
    This is one of the weirdest things that has been propagated about him and I do not know where it started...

    FACT 1: All power hitters strike out more than non-power hitters (ask Willie)
    FACT 2: Sano's BB:K ratio is better than Jim Thome's at the same age

    Enough
    Jim Thome at age 19 played in rookie ball and A+ Combined had an OPS 1.074 , struck out 44 times had a batting average of .340 and only 27 errors. while playing third. Sano OPS .894 SO 142 BA .235, and 42 errors. When you cal something weird, use a better example than comparing Sano to Thome at the same age. Fact, there are big holes in Sano's game that need to be fixed.
    Thome played in 55gms at 18 & 67gms at age 19. There were 26 errors @ 3B (83gms) those 2 yrs (14e's in 40gms at SS) with 77k 72bb in 505ABs

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    It will be an interesting year for Sano next year. He has to start to be able to field the ball better and throw with some accuracy. He will also need to cut down on strikeouts and make contact more often.
    This is one of the weirdest things that has been propagated about him and I do not know where it started...

    FACT 1: All power hitters strike out more than non-power hitters (ask Willie)
    FACT 2: Sano's BB:K ratio is better than Jim Thome's at the same age

    Enough
    Jim Thome at age 19 played in rookie ball and A+ Combined had an OPS 1.074 , struck out 44 times had a batting average of .340 and only 27 errors. while playing third. Sano OPS .894 SO 142 BA .235, and 42 errors. When you cal something weird, use a better example than comparing Sano to Thome at the same age. Fact, there are big holes in Sano's game that need to be fixed.
    Thrylos was probably quoting Sano's DR League BB:K ratio when he actually was 19 (when was that? 3 years ago?)

    For the record, Sano's BA is currently .260, not .235.

    But the point is well taken, Sano has quite a journey ahead of him to try to match Thome's game, Sano's projection partner is scary, his current rate of production bears a more current resemblance to Adam Dunn's.....(Dunn at 19 in the Midwest Leauge: OPS 885/SO 64/BB 46/BA 307)

  3. #23
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Brad Swanson's Avatar
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    Matt Kemp had 159 Ks in 2011, his OPS was almost 1.000 and he hit 39 home runs.

    Jim Thome had 185 Ks in 2001, his OPS was over 1.000 and he hit 49 home runs.

    Ryan Howard had 181 Ks in 2006, his OPS was over 1.000 and he hit 58 home runs.

    Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan Braun, Josh Hamilton, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce and Justin Upton strike out more than average. They all struck out a lot in the low minors too. They are all huge power guys and occasional MVP candidates.

    Josh Willingham might strike out 150 times this year. He also might hit 40 home runs.

    Power hitters strike out a lot and they don't always have good batting averages. When they can combine both, they might be inducted into the Hall of Fame (Pujols, M. Cabrera). It depends on what you want from Sano. If you want 40 bombs per year, he is going to strike out 120-150 times. If you want 25 and .300, he will have to change his approach. He has 80 power, why not see how many home runs he can hit and learn to deal with the Ks?

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brad Swanson View Post
    Matt Kemp had 159 Ks in 2011, his OPS was almost 1.000 and he hit 39 home runs.

    Jim Thome had 185 Ks in 2001, his OPS was over 1.000 and he hit 49 home runs.

    Ryan Howard had 181 Ks in 2006, his OPS was over 1.000 and he hit 58 home runs.

    Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan Braun, Josh Hamilton, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce and Justin Upton strike out more than average. They all struck out a lot in the low minors too. They are all huge power guys and occasional MVP candidates.

    Josh Willingham might strike out 150 times this year. He also might hit 40 home runs.

    Power hitters strike out a lot and they don't always have good batting averages. When they can combine both, they might be inducted into the Hall of Fame (Pujols, M. Cabrera). It depends on what you want from Sano. If you want 40 bombs per year, he is going to strike out 120-150 times. If you want 25 and .300, he will have to change his approach. He has 80 power, why not see how many home runs he can hit and learn to deal with the Ks?
    When it's finally all said and done, I'll gladly settle for career numbers somewhere in-between Thome and Dunn.

  5. #25
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    I'm really trying not to get my hopes up about the 2012 pitching draft class until they have success in New Britain, but it is hard not to be optimistic that some of these guys will find their way onto the top ten list as very few have yet to stumble. While the sample sizes are small and most of these guys have only pitched an couple innings at a time in relief, it would seem that many, if not most of these guys should be in over their head during their first taste of pro ball, but I'd say only a couple pitchers drafted late really are in too deep.

    Barrios- 49K/4BB, 30 IP, 1.17 ERA between GCL and E'ton
    Bard- 7K/7BB, 7 IP, 3.86 ERA: GCL/E'ton
    Melotakis- 34K/6BB, 24 IP, 1.88 ERA: E'ton/Beloit
    Chargois- 22K/5BB, 16 IP, 1.69 ERA: E'ton
    Jones- 31K/11BB, 19 IP, 2.37 ERA: E'ton/Beloit
    Duffy- 27K/2BB, 19 IP, 1.42 ERA: E'ton
    Martinez- 11K/9BB, 14 IP, 4.50 ERA: GCL
    Powell- 30K/7BB 15, IP, 5.74 ERA: E'ton
    Baxendale- 31K/2BB, 18 IP, 0.98 ERA: E'ton/Beloit
    Rogers- 73K/17BB, 61 IP, 2.35 ERA: E'ton/Beloit
    Muren- 12K/9BB, 24 IP, 1.46 ERA: GCL
    Huber- 10K/8BB, 14 IP, 7.71 ERA: E'ton
    Goldsmith- 5K/5BB, 4 IP, 6.75: GCL
    Ferreira- 13K/7BB, 10 IP, 1.80 ERA: E'ton
    Merck- 28K/6BB, 24 IP, 4.07 ERA: E'ton

    These are the 15 pitchers from the 2012 draft class that have already got innings with the organization.

    Only three are failing to strikeout a batter an inning, while Barrios, Melotakis, Chargois, Duffy, Baxendale, Rogers and Merck seem to have very little to no control issues at this point.

    Only one of the top six pitchers taken has an ERA over 2.50, and nine of the 15 overall are lower than that figure.

    Six of the pitchers got a mid-season promotion, and Chargois and Duffy, maybe even Merck deserved one too, but it's tough to find room for that many pitchers late in the year.

    There is enough talent here, hopefully most of these guys get a shot at starting and can carry over most of the success they have had in relief. We won't know if drafting relievers and transforming them into starters is going to work for several years, but with the success up to this point, I would not be surprised if the Twins take the same approach in next years draft.

  6. #26
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Benson would replace Vargas (want to see V get a full season at Fort Myers first), but that is a very good and accurate top 9.

    One thing is certain and that is that the Twins system is now very good or great through Beloit. Then it is very good again at New Britain.

  7. #27
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    I along with Seth Stohs made the trek to Beloit to see these guys and the thing that I came out from Sano is he has the physical tools to stay at 3rd base. I think it is a maturity and focus thing more than a physical thing. In pregame warm ups he can move laterally and he makes all the plays in pregame. This was my 2nd year going and Seth's 3rd year and we both agreed that he is a freak that will only improve. Some of the strikeouts that we saw were borderline pitches that I don't want him swinging at anyway. I came away feeling like Sano has all the god given tools to be a monster. I think we all just need to take a step back and let him develop at his pace. I may be in the minority but I believe he can play at 3rd base. His bat is going to be huge and I think he can put up Miguel Cabrera type numbers as he moves up. Miguel Sano is the least of my worries about the Twins farm system he will be just fine.

  8. #28
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    The ridiculous part of thrylos comments is that comparing a prospect's stat line (esp in low A) to HOF (and all star) players is ridiculous. There's nothing wrong with striking out at the rates that Sano does but it's difficult to maintain those rates as you move up in the minors. The scouting reports also suggest that there are concerns with strikeouts.

    I don't really understand what the discussion is about. i think everyone has him rated #1 on the Twins list and he looks like he'll be top 25 on most lists. He is a really, really good prospect but if you ignore the flaws then you are in for a letdown.

  9. #29
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    I tend to agree with thrylos' comment, but only because I find myself finishing old nurse's statement as "He will also need to cut down on strikeouts and make contact more often"... OR HE WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE BIG LEAGUES.

    However, old nurse may wish to complete his/her sentence as ... or he will not become an All Star (or HOFer), in which case I would be in complete agreement.

  10. #30
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    I think the big year for Sano starts when he starts at New Britain. I see two big steps to be made for position players in the minors. The first is to full-season ball (almost always Beloit, except for poor Levi Michael) and the second is to AA. Sano passed his first test with some room for improvement (to be worked on at Fort Myers, if he starts to improve the K/rate, move him up to AA and begin to figure out where exactly to put him while his bat is tested in AA). I would say much the same for all batters like him. If, on the other hand, a player has plate discipline and a decent k rate already, I want to see more time at Rochester (would apply to Hicks and Herrmann, should have already been applying to Herrmann for the second half of 2012).

    Vargas will be one of my guys to watch next year. If he really takes off, the Twins will have a much different look in their system.

  11. #31
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Nice work but I don't see how Parmelee can be left off the list over guys who have virtually no professional experience. The guy posted a 1.102 OPS in AAA as a 24 year old. Sure, he's a first baseman but those numbers are still god-like. I don't think he's top five but leaving him off the top ten seems like you're factoring in too much "look at the potential!" instead of "holy crap, this dude is raking".

  12. #32
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    I assumed that Parmelee wasn't in the top 10 simply because of the amount of playing time with the Twins?

  13. #33
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Nice work but I don't see how Parmelee can be left off the list over guys who have virtually no professional experience. The guy posted a 1.102 OPS in AAA as a 24 year old. Sure, he's a first baseman but those numbers are still god-like. I don't think he's top five but leaving him off the top ten seems like you're factoring in too much "look at the potential!" instead of "holy crap, this dude is raking".
    He went over the "prospect/rookie" plate appearances early this year, so he wouldn't be included any more in prospect lists. When I do mine, I go by the MLB Rookie criteria. If they can still win the rookie of the year award, they're a 'prospect.'

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    It will be an interesting year for Sano next year. He has to start to be able to field the ball better and throw with some accuracy. He will also need to cut down on strikeouts and make contact more often.
    This is one of the weirdest things that has been propagated about him and I do not know where it started...

    FACT 1: All power hitters strike out more than non-power hitters (ask Willie)
    FACT 2: Sano's BB:K ratio is better than Jim Thome's at the same age

    Enough
    Jim Thome at age 19 played in rookie ball and A+ Combined had an OPS 1.074 , struck out 44 times had a batting average of .340 and only 27 errors. while playing third. Sano OPS .894 SO 142 BA .235, and 42 errors. When you cal something weird, use a better example than comparing Sano to Thome at the same age. Fact, there are big holes in Sano's game that need to be fixed.
    Thome played in 55gms at 18 & 67gms at age 19. There were 26 errors @ 3B (83gms) those 2 yrs (14e's in 40gms at SS) with 77k 72bb in 505ABs
    If you want to argue statistics over two years fine. There is still a significant difference between the two players, The number of errors Sano has is way higher. When he connects good things happen. Thome in the majors fielded third at a .952. Again a significant difference from Sano at .881. Would you want a third baseman with a career .881 fielding percentages and an error a week? Sano's batting average dropped significantly between rookie and A ball.

  15. #35
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    I haven't seen Sano play, like most of us I read a lot of stuff, but haven't analyzed his approach or his actual swing. Most everyone understands that with big-time power he will whiff a lot. My concern/question is truly one of ignorance. What is the reason for the strikeouts? Is it too long of a swing (think Brandon Wood) or is it just his approach or strike-zone discipline? If you don't recall Brandon Wood put up crazy power numbers at all of his stops in the minors but could never adjust to MLB pitchers due to a "long" swing. Is this Sano? Or does Sano just need to mature as guys like Jay Bruce and Jason Heyward have been allowed to (although at the MLB level)?

  16. #36
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Nice work but I don't see how Parmelee can be left off the list over guys who have virtually no professional experience. The guy posted a 1.102 OPS in AAA as a 24 year old. Sure, he's a first baseman but those numbers are still god-like. I don't think he's top five but leaving him off the top ten seems like you're factoring in too much "look at the potential!" instead of "holy crap, this dude is raking".
    He went over the "prospect/rookie" plate appearances early this year, so he wouldn't be included any more in prospect lists. When I do mine, I go by the MLB Rookie criteria. If they can still win the rookie of the year award, they're a 'prospect.'
    That's fair. I guess it all depends on where you draw the line on "prospect". For me, it's a guy who hasn't gotten a real chance to play every day for at least two months. Chris hasn't had a real shot, he's just accumulated ABs here and there.

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    All in all it was a good list. After the top 5 it is kinda of a crapshoot. Hopefully we can bring in a few arms with next years draft (and the haul we take in trading Mornie and Span).
    Can you really say this list is a crapshoot with Berrios and Gibson in the 6 and 7 spot? Personally I am extremely excited about Berrios' potential as a starter, and his K/BB ratio is ridiculous! Gibson isn't putting up quite the "video game esque" numbers, but is a legit starter that will be a favorite for a spot in the rotation next year.

  18. #38
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Twins Twerp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mauerzy4Prez View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    All in all it was a good list. After the top 5 it is kinda of a crapshoot. Hopefully we can bring in a few arms with next years draft (and the haul we take in trading Mornie and Span).
    Can you really say this list is a crapshoot with Berrios and Gibson in the 6 and 7 spot? Personally I am extremely excited about Berrios' potential as a starter, and his K/BB ratio is ridiculous! Gibson isn't putting up quite the "video game esque" numbers, but is a legit starter that will be a favorite for a spot in the rotation next year.
    I see where you are coming from. I maybe should have said six as I also like JO. But Gibson is going to be 25 and probably starting out at AAA. He is also going to be 2 years removed from surgery. He could still be a solid pro but I don't see him as a hot prospect anymore.

    I am not on high as JO as everyone else seems to be. I still think he could become a great pitcher, but his size scares me. You just don't see a lot of those skinny short type of pitchers starting. I know that some will put out the 'freak' and Trevor Bauer. But the freak is just that, a freak. JO's floor is pretty high too. At the very least, he will be a late inning reliever. When the rankings come out this spring from all the National mags/websites/columnist/etc. I think the reviews on JO will be all over the map. It is nice to have some pitching to look forward to in the future. Go Twins

  19. #39
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    I like the top 10 listed here. I would remove Vargas and add Goodrum or Michael (I'm still high on him) but can't quibble with 1-6.

  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Mauerzy4Prez View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    All in all it was a good list. After the top 5 it is kinda of a crapshoot. Hopefully we can bring in a few arms with next years draft (and the haul we take in trading Mornie and Span).
    Can you really say this list is a crapshoot with Berrios and Gibson in the 6 and 7 spot? Personally I am extremely excited about Berrios' potential as a starter, and his K/BB ratio is ridiculous! Gibson isn't putting up quite the "video game esque" numbers, but is a legit starter that will be a favorite for a spot in the rotation next year.
    I see where you are coming from. I maybe should have said six as I also like JO. But Gibson is going to be 25 and probably starting out at AAA. He is also going to be 2 years removed from surgery. He could still be a solid pro but I don't see him as a hot prospect anymore.

    I am not on high as JO as everyone else seems to be. I still think he could become a great pitcher, but his size scares me. You just don't see a lot of those skinny short type of pitchers starting. I know that some will put out the 'freak' and Trevor Bauer. But the freak is just that, a freak. JO's floor is pretty high too. At the very least, he will be a late inning reliever. When the rankings come out this spring from all the National mags/websites/columnist/etc. I think the reviews on JO will be all over the map. It is nice to have some pitching to look forward to in the future. Go Twins
    I tend to disagree about Gibson breaking camp in AAA next year. All reports I have heard/read have said to look for him in the rotation next year out of ST, if he can perform well enough in the spring.

    Berrios' stature may not be that of the typical starter in the bigs. But I don't think he can be called "short and skinny".... The dude is pretty ripped, and I had once seen that his workout routine is pretty intense. He's listed at 6'0 187lbs online, and is only 18. He may not be getting any taller, but he will certainly gain some more weight in muscle.

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