Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Page 1 of 5 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 81

Thread: What's to Blame for the Rotation?

  1. #1
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
    Posts
    1,235
    Like
    8
    Liked 17 Times in 12 Posts
    Blog Entries
    10

    What's to Blame for the Rotation?

    What frequently gets tossed around on TD is that the Twins failed to 'restock' on arms. True to an extent, I fervently disagree it's the main problem and I think it's more unfortunate luck to fault. The Twins lack of depth there has been exposed this season, but that's not to say the original plan was bad. 2 'major league ready' pitchers they drafted both succumbed to TJ surgery and a few previously reliable starters flopped in addition to a free agent signing.
    At this point, the Twins FO of 2010 had to expect a rotation similar to this:
    1. Gibson
    2. Baker
    3. Innings Eater Pavano
    4. Wimmers
    5. Blackburn

    Liriano also being a factor if everything went according to plan. Injuries took a toll on 4/5 of these players (TJ for 3) and that's not something any FO could predict.

  2. #2
    Banned Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    636
    Like
    0
    Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
    A combination of Deron Johnson and the Twins scouts and a fundamentally flawed idea that back of the rotation arms can anchor a rotation.

  3. #3
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    8,131
    Twitter
    @rocketpig76
    Like
    49
    Liked 1,605 Times in 832 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    It's a combination of bad drafting, bad luck, and poor use of the FA market. You can't pin all the failures on one aspect of the organization. It took almost everybody to make this mess.

  4. #4
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    2,693
    Like
    310
    Liked 220 Times in 140 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by DPJ View Post
    A combination of Deron Johnson and the Twins scouts and a fundamentally flawed idea that back of the rotation arms can anchor a rotation.
    You do realize that Johnson's drafting philosophy has been far different than Radcliff's, right? Gibson, Hunt, Bullock, Tootle, Berrios, Willaims, Gutierrez, Boer, Boyd etc can not really be described as typical Twins pitchers. Wimmers would fall into that category but generally Johnson has made more risky picks on flame throwers and HS pitchers than Radcliff did.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    498
    Like
    2
    Liked 80 Times in 50 Posts
    Relying on a best-case scenario is pretty much always the step right before failure, in baseball or anything else. But the pitching situation is just an organizational problem that we can't trace directly, from the outside. Johnson would seem to be an obvious factor, and no doubt he is one, but the groundwork is all laid by the scouts on the ground across the country (and world). Not to mention, Johnson and the scouting department, and every other aspect of the organization, are part of a Twins' culture that is outdated.

    If Ryan has a real strategy to turn things around, we wouldn't know about it. Unfortunately I suspect it's something along the lines of 'get back to the old ways' rather than 'let's rethink things and see how we can bring ourselves up to date.'

  6. #6
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
    Posts
    1,235
    Like
    8
    Liked 17 Times in 12 Posts
    Blog Entries
    10
    Maybe all these faults were pre-destined.... it did allow Minnesota to draft Byron Buxton, Twins superstar, and a future member of the HOF....

  7. #7
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
    Posts
    2,787
    Like
    667
    Liked 385 Times in 215 Posts
    Blog Entries
    10
    There are over 50 starting pitchers on the DL around baseball. Any FO that doesn't account for injury risk from pitching is thinking wishfully.

  8. #8
    Banned Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    636
    Like
    0
    Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    You do realize that Johnson's drafting philosophy has been far different than Radcliff's, right? Gibson, Hunt, Bullock, Tootle, Berrios, Willaims, Gutierrez, Boer, Boyd etc can not really be described as typical Twins pitchers. Wimmers would fall into that category but generally Johnson has made more risky picks on flame throwers and HS pitchers than Radcliff did.
    Half those guys profiled as relief pitchers, some are too young or early in their career to comment on and the rest have been hurt or suck.

    So once again, blame goes toward Deron Johnson.

  9. #9
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
    Posts
    4,178
    Twitter
    @thrylos98
    Like
    36
    Liked 446 Times in 273 Posts
    Blog Entries
    200
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    It's a combination of bad drafting, bad luck, and poor use of the FA market. You can't pin all the failures on one aspect of the organization. It took almost everybody to make this mess.
    Agreed, but you have to add:

    - bad player development
    - bad coaching
    - bad scouting and evaluation of their own players (e.g. RA Dickey, Kevin Slowey)
    - bad training and medical staff
    -----
    Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/
    twitter: @thrylos98

  10. #10
    Senior Member All-Star Boom Boom's Avatar
    Posts
    1,091
    Like
    10
    Liked 214 Times in 100 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    It's a combination of bad drafting, bad luck, and poor use of the FA market. You can't pin all the failures on one aspect of the organization. It took almost everybody to make this mess.
    Agreed, but you have to add:

    - bad player development
    - bad coaching
    - bad scouting and evaluation of their own players (e.g. RA Dickey, Kevin Slowey)
    - bad training and medical staff
    Bad trades?

    Out of the three pitchers the Twins received in the Santana trade, two never made a start for the Twins and are now gone, and the third is a full-time reliever now.

  11. #11
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
    Posts
    4,178
    Twitter
    @thrylos98
    Like
    36
    Liked 446 Times in 273 Posts
    Blog Entries
    200
    Quote Originally Posted by Boom Boom View Post
    Bad trades?

    Out of the three pitchers the Twins received in the Santana trade, two never made a start for the Twins and are now gone, and the third is a full-time reliever now.
    Guerra is still young. Mulvey was turned into Rauch who helped the Twins win a division title. The guy who threw the perfect game is part of the bad player evaluation part. Same with Gomez/JJ Hardy.

    Still what they got from Santana was probably more than what they would have gotten with 2 sandwich picks in 2008 (because the Mets' pick was the 33rd below the Twins' sup pick). Here is who was drafted in 2008 in the 1st and sup rounds. Not exactly ground shakers where those picks would have been....
    Last edited by Thrylos; 08-13-2012 at 12:31 PM.
    -----
    Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/
    twitter: @thrylos98

  12. #12
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,670
    Like
    11
    Liked 54 Times in 35 Posts
    At this point in 2010 Pavano, Liriano and Slowey were having good seasons. Blackburn and Baker were signed through 2013. The FO could have thought the rotation was set for a few years. Wimmers was in the low minors and would not have been part of the plan for 2012. Gibson would have allowed them to trade Slowey. The FO did not extend his contract, he would have been the odd man out. Who could have foreseen how 2011 played out with the ineffectiveness of those starters, then the injuries that continued into 2012.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    At this point in 2010 Pavano, Liriano and Slowey were having good seasons. Blackburn and Baker were signed through 2013. The FO could have thought the rotation was set for a few years. Wimmers was in the low minors and would not have been part of the plan for 2012. Gibson would have allowed them to trade Slowey. The FO did not extend his contract, he would have been the odd man out. Who could have foreseen how 2011 played out with the ineffectiveness of those starters, then the injuries that continued into 2012.
    Absolutely. It all fell apart so fast. Pavano, Liriano, Baker, Blackburn, Slowey all had double digit wins that year and pitched over 150 innings each. Then you had Duensing finish the year as a starter and did ok (I think he took over when Slowey went down). All those guys were ages 26-28 except Pavano. Then there was Perkins (still a starter at that time in AAA), Swarzak (prospect star fading, but still only 24 at that time), Gibson (22) at AA along with Guerra (21) and two more 21 year olds in Wimmers/Hendricks at A ball. Wow that blew up fast....

  14. #14
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    877
    Like
    485
    Liked 84 Times in 63 Posts
    To blame the Twin's pitching problems on any one person (Deron Johnson? C'mon.) or label it all as bad bad bad bad (thrylos of course) is incredibly simplistic. This year's rotation problems specifically? The buck stops clearly with Ryan. Some of people think they made a good call and had bad luck. Some people, myself included, think they made an risky bet and paid the price. And of course, some people are far less charitable.

    I have a theory related to the causes of the current shortage of promising starters in the system, and I would suggest this order of the most significant causes:

    1. A full decade of picking in the back half of the draft order. (One exception, which netted us Hicks). No prospect considered to have a #1 ceiling was available to the Twins, not one, during this entire ten-year period. No high-profile, sure-fire ace lasts until even the 14th pick of the first round. Go for ten years, or 500 rounds worth of selections, always picking in the second half, and then ask yourself why anyone should expect your pitching pipeline to be better than average. By the way, the Twin's farm system is still more highly rated than any othe team in its division except KC, which has picked in top five for over a decade probably.
    2. Some bad luck with injuries and setbacks that could not have been anticipated.**
    3. Some bad decisions.**

    Some of you are experts, so you can tell us which of these picks was bad luck versus bad judgment. If you submit that they are all a result of bad judgment, you have zero credibility. Zero. Hunt, Bashore, Gutierrez, Tootle, Gibson, Wimmers, Waldrop, Rainville, Fox...

    I don't buy all the bad evaluation, bad scouting, bad coaching, bad development nonsense. And I definately also do not buy the "soft tosser" preference stuff. I'm very skeptical that ther's been any change in philosophy regarding "hard throwers", although by appearances, it's possible. I just don't think the five dozen scouts employed by the Twins are told to avoid pitchers who "throw hard". Here's a test: make a list of the top 20 "hardest throwers" on the Twins active roster over the past decade. Then make a list of the top 20 "softest tossers". Now, compare the fastball velocity of the #20 guy on each list. What's the difference? My guess is about 2.5MPH. This soft versus hard is simplistic.

  15. #15
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
    Posts
    1,235
    Like
    8
    Liked 17 Times in 12 Posts
    Blog Entries
    10
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    At this point in 2010 Pavano, Liriano and Slowey were having good seasons. Blackburn and Baker were signed through 2013. The FO could have thought the rotation was set for a few years. Wimmers was in the low minors and would not have been part of the plan for 2012. Gibson would have allowed them to trade Slowey. The FO did not extend his contract, he would have been the odd man out. Who could have foreseen how 2011 played out with the ineffectiveness of those starters, then the injuries that continued into 2012.
    I had heard Wimmers was the 'safe' and most league ready arm if I remember correctly. A two year ETA doesn't seem too out of reach with that being said. Unfortunately he's free fallen since the organization COMPLETELY screwed up his UCL tear. Too stupid to get the surgery done right away.

  16. #16
    Banned Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    636
    Like
    0
    Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    At this point in 2010 Pavano, Liriano and Slowey were having good seasons. Blackburn and Baker were signed through 2013. The FO could have thought the rotation was set for a few years. Wimmers was in the low minors and would not have been part of the plan for 2012. Gibson would have allowed them to trade Slowey. The FO did not extend his contract, he would have been the odd man out. Who could have foreseen how 2011 played out with the ineffectiveness of those starters, then the injuries that continued into 2012.
    You know what the good teams go, they prepare and add depth up the ass for things like that. The moment you think you're deep at a position, you realize you're not through injuries bad luck or whatever. Pavano was in his mid-30's and Blackburn is the type of arm that could fall apart at any moment. Baker & Slowey were always banged up and spending time on the DL. Hell Liriano is really the only one out of that group who I didn't see this coming, but goes to show what I know.

    The point is depth is the greatest thing you can plan for during a major league offseason. Prepare yourself that people are gonna get hurt, prepare yourself for losing guys in the majors and minors. The Twins have long relied on having a respectable farm system for kids to come up and fill those holes in the field or rotation. Now that the farm system has tailed off those kids aren't there and you're left giving 38 year infielders multi-year contracts or having a rotation of a Duensing, Blackburn, Daduno, Diamond and the DeVries.

  17. #17
    Twins News Team MVP
    Posts
    6,775
    Like
    890
    Liked 864 Times in 555 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    ...and then ask yourself why anyone should expect your pitching pipeline to be better than average....

    OK. I just did. Given the succession of-

    poor trades of pitchers moved from, or acquired by, the Twins,
    the outright release of arms left with value and
    outright misses on now-MLB-successful lower round pitching draft picks on other teams,
    the current wretched state of the pitching staff up and down the upper levels of the system,
    an apparently flawed training and developmental regimen and,
    an apparently less-than-competent medical evaluation process-

    I found myself more than acceptant to a pipeline slighly below average as a reasonable expectation. The Twins failed even at a bar set that low.

  18. #18
    Twins News Team MVP
    Posts
    6,775
    Like
    890
    Liked 864 Times in 555 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    ....By the way, the Twin's farm system is still more highly rated than any othe team in its division except KC....
    Filed for new entry under- Faint Praise, damning with (http://www.urbandictionary.com/defin...faint%20praise)

  19. #19
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    2,693
    Like
    310
    Liked 220 Times in 140 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    To blame the Twin's pitching problems on any one person (Deron Johnson? C'mon.) or label it all as bad bad bad bad (thrylos of course) is incredibly simplistic. This year's rotation problems specifically? The buck stops clearly with Ryan. Some of people think they made a good call and had bad luck. Some people, myself included, think they made an risky bet and paid the price. And of course, some people are far less charitable.

    I have a theory related to the causes of the current shortage of promising starters in the system, and I would suggest this order of the most significant causes:

    1. A full decade of picking in the back half of the draft order. (One exception, which netted us Hicks). No prospect considered to have a #1 ceiling was available to the Twins, not one, during this entire ten-year period. No high-profile, sure-fire ace lasts until even the 14th pick of the first round. Go for ten years, or 500 rounds worth of selections, always picking in the second half, and then ask yourself why anyone should expect your pitching pipeline to be better than average. By the way, the Twin's farm system is still more highly rated than any othe team in its division except KC, which has picked in top five for over a decade probably.
    2. Some bad luck with injuries and setbacks that could not have been anticipated.**
    3. Some bad decisions.**

    Some of you are experts, so you can tell us which of these picks was bad luck versus bad judgment. If you submit that they are all a result of bad judgment, you have zero credibility. Zero. Hunt, Bashore, Gutierrez, Tootle, Gibson, Wimmers, Waldrop, Rainville, Fox...

    I don't buy all the bad evaluation, bad scouting, bad coaching, bad development nonsense. And I definately also do not buy the "soft tosser" preference stuff. I'm very skeptical that ther's been any change in philosophy regarding "hard throwers", although by appearances, it's possible. I just don't think the five dozen scouts employed by the Twins are told to avoid pitchers who "throw hard". Here's a test: make a list of the top 20 "hardest throwers" on the Twins active roster over the past decade. Then make a list of the top 20 "softest tossers". Now, compare the fastball velocity of the #20 guy on each list. What's the difference? My guess is about 2.5MPH. This soft versus hard is simplistic.
    This is a good post. After the 2004 draft, BA ranked the Twins draft the best. But injuries hit all four of those pitchers ...

    IIRC, Gutierrez was seen as a reach in the first round but it could also have been a money thing, since the Twins had 3 picks in the top 30ish that year. Klaw ripped the Twins for taking Gutierrez but praised them for taking Hunt. I think the prospect community (BA, Klaw, Prospectus, Mayo) have generally been positive of recent Twins drafts. We got a lot of praise for taking Gibson, Hicks, and the last two years drafts first few picks. We got some criticism for taking Revere and Span and not overpaying later in the draft (I think that has some basis in reality, I wish the Twins would have spent a little more and signed Marvel this season, for instance). Parmelee was seen as a good gamble pick as he was the #1 high school power bat in his draft class. Wimmers was a well regarded conservative move although some pushed for the Twins to take a gamble on HS pitcher Stetson Allie. I can't remember the specifics of taking guys like Tootle, Bullock and Bashore but I think someone wondered about the health of one of them. The Twins tendency to draft toolsy HS players is probably something that most in the prospect community support, since they understand the Twins are making an athletic bet and they probably enjoy that.

  20. #20
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
    Posts
    4,178
    Twitter
    @thrylos98
    Like
    36
    Liked 446 Times in 273 Posts
    Blog Entries
    200
    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post


    I don't buy all the bad evaluation, bad scouting, bad coaching, bad development nonsense. .
    So tell us why R.A. Dickey is not a Twin right now and why Blackburn is signed until 2014? Luck?

    Cleveland got rid of their pitching coach even though their rotation has been better than the Twins. The Twins are on pace to finish with the worse record in the AL for a second season in a row and the Scholarships that the interim was so against at the beginning of the season, still stand for the manager and the coaches of that debacle.

    How can they be unscratched here. Someone has to pay.

    And Marquis who was pitching like crap earlier this season, took a no-hitter into the 7th inning and ended up with a two-hitter. And you are telling me the coach is clean....
    Last edited by Thrylos; 08-13-2012 at 04:15 PM.
    -----
    Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/
    twitter: @thrylos98

Page 1 of 5 123 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.