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Thread: Article: Offensively, Twins Remain Uneven

  1. #21
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    If you're talking about only the offensive contribution of a player, it doesn't make much sense to use normal WAR, as it factors in defense.

    OPS is a decent quick and dirty stat but I prefer OBP/SLG splits. Either way, OPS isn't a bad baseline stat to use in a comparison like this.

  2. #22
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    Where is the bar set? Compete for a central title, or field a team that is playoff caliber? Adding a couple mid level starters and an upgrade in MI may get you a chance in the Central but it won't make you a playoff quality team, imo. Without very good top of the rotation starters getting far in the playoffs is slim at best.
    Looking at next year should also include what we have this year and are these guys likely to repeat. Are Willy and Doumsie going to stay healthy and productive their track record says probably not. Will young guys like Reverie and Plouffie repeat in a soph. yr? Will M & M boys stay healthy? This team has been very heathy this year amoung the position players, that is not likely to repeat. All of the big bats have a history of injuries and all have been healthy, hold your breath because our depth is next to zero!

  3. #23
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer crarko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
    Where is the bar set? Compete for a central title, or field a team that is playoff caliber? Adding a couple mid level starters and an upgrade in MI may get you a chance in the Central but it won't make you a playoff quality team, imo. Without very good top of the rotation starters getting far in the playoffs is slim at best.
    Looking at next year should also include what we have this year and are these guys likely to repeat. Are Willy and Doumsie going to stay healthy and productive their track record says probably not. Will young guys like Reverie and Plouffie repeat in a soph. yr? Will M & M boys stay healthy? This team has been very heathy this year amoung the position players, that is not likely to repeat. All of the big bats have a history of injuries and all have been healthy, hold your breath because our depth is next to zero!
    Since there's no chance then, cutting the payroll to like 60 million is a good thing then, right? Why waste good money on these stiffs.

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    Completely valid criticism on the Bartlett and Hardy decisions, diehard.
    My trouble with that criticism is that he pointed to "Gardy's doghouse." Gardenhire has made it clear in interviews that he was disappointed to lose Bartlett. I wish I could recall the exact wording, but I remember him saying something like "I thought we finally had our long-term shortstop, but they traded him."
    And does anyone remember Gardenhire ever criticizing Hardy? All I remember is a lot of "He knows how to pick it," and "He makes all the plays," etc.
    It's been my impression that these were FO decisions that he didn't care for much.

  5. #25
    Found it! Lavelle E Neal wrote the article http://m.startribune.com/news/?id=141377903
    "When we lost Bartlett, that was the most frustrating thing for me," Gardenhire said. "I thought we had Bartlett where we wanted him. So when we made the trade with Bartlett, then I was frustrated. But it is what it is. I wanted Bartlett to stay here. I thought we had gotten him to the point where we wanted, so I was not on the Bartlett side of the trade."

  6. #26
    Excellent point on this. Gardy exhibits some of the same issues with young middle infielders that Tom Kelly had with catchers. He has never met one that he thinks is a bona fide major leaguer.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by PopRiveter View Post
    Found it! Lavelle E Neal wrote the article http://m.startribune.com/news/?id=141377903
    "When we lost Bartlett, that was the most frustrating thing for me," Gardenhire said. "I thought we had Bartlett where we wanted him. So when we made the trade with Bartlett, then I was frustrated. But it is what it is. I wanted Bartlett to stay here. I thought we had gotten him to the point where we wanted, so I was not on the Bartlett side of the trade."
    It is easy to make a statement like that now, in spring training of 2012 after Bartlett is an established regular, but in practice, when Bartlett played for this team, he was constantly in the dog house with Gardy, whether that was because he was made to spend more time in AAA to learn to be more vocal in the IF (while Juan Castro started for them) or getting benched after not being able to handle a grounder that no other SS in the league would have even been able to get to. Perhaps Gardy was overruled by teh front office, but there's little indication in his treatment of Bartlett while he was a Twin that this was the case.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
    Where is the bar set? Compete for a central title, or field a team that is playoff caliber? Adding a couple mid level starters and an upgrade in MI may get you a chance in the Central but it won't make you a playoff quality team, imo. Without very good top of the rotation starters getting far in the playoffs is slim at best.
    Looking at next year should also include what we have this year and are these guys likely to repeat. Are Willy and Doumsie going to stay healthy and productive their track record says probably not. Will young guys like Reverie and Plouffie repeat in a soph. yr? Will M & M boys stay healthy? This team has been very heathy this year amoung the position players, that is not likely to repeat. All of the big bats have a history of injuries and all have been healthy, hold your breath because our depth is next to zero!
    Whether you like it or not, the team is going to need to take some baby steps to move forward. They have glaring weaknesses in their SP, but that isn't going to get fixed in one offseason. They need to figure out if Dozier can be a competent regular, and while he's shown some flashes of being a good player, there have been lumps too. I'm fine with being a competitor in 2013, especially since I would expect both Hendricks and Gibson to take some lumps next year. I don't think the Twins should be satisfied with that though.

  9. #29
    Speediest Moderator All-Star snepp's Avatar
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    OPS does break down a bit at the extremes, but in general it's pretty effective.

    GPA? Why bother? If you're not going to use OPS, you may as well go straight to a linear weights measure like wOBA that includes base running.
    "Maybe you could go grab a bat and ballÖ and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
    - Strib commenter educating the elitists on the value of RBI's

  10. #30
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by crarko View Post
    Since there's no chance then, cutting the payroll to like 60 million is a good thing then, right? Why waste good money on these stiffs.
    "no chance" are your words. Who did I call a stiff?
    Building a playoff type team takes steps and part of that is being prepared for injuries and failures. The last few years this team hasn't really had much of a backup plan. Lack of depth is not unique to the Twins it just seems like it always or nearly always comes into play with us.
    My question was are we just trying to compete or is there a longer term plan in place to be a quality playoff type team? (I can't see us ever buying a team like some do with a 120m or larger payroll) If you just want to compete you keep all these guys and try to find a few starters to fill out the rotation. If you are looking at building a strong playoff team it probably means trading some of these guys and building up the talent level in the minors for a run a few years down the road.

  11. #31
    Senior Member Triple-A Dilligaf69's Avatar
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    2B and RF are the big ?.....Can Parmalee learn to play well enough in RF to earn a full time spot and thus hold down a everyday spot in the lineup?? If Span is traded and Revere takes over CF he may get a shot especially if they keep Justin going into next season.

  12. #32
    No Trevor Plouffe hasn't even been close to the level of Mauer's performance. Below average defense at 3rd base and a 330 OBP with a 259 Average doesn't translate into a better season than a player who leads the league in OBP and is in the top 5 in average with a war 3+ as opposed to Plouffe who has one around 2. Plouffe has struck out 57 times. That is 2 less than Mauer while having a 100 less at bats. It's not even close.

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeanS7921 View Post
    No Trevor Plouffe hasn't even been close to the level of Mauer's performance. Below average defense at 3rd base and a 330 OBP with a 259 Average doesn't translate into a better season than a player who leads the league in OBP and is in the top 5 in average with a war 3+ as opposed to Plouffe who has one around 2. Plouffe has struck out 57 times. That is 2 less than Mauer while having a 100 less at bats. It's not even close.
    Speaking of close-

    Qualifers in AL/OBP

    1) Ortiz .414
    2) Mauer: .413

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeanS7921 View Post
    No Trevor Plouffe hasn't even been close to the level of Mauer's performance. Below average defense at 3rd base and a 330 OBP with a 259 Average doesn't translate into a better season than a player who leads the league in OBP and is in the top 5 in average with a war 3+ as opposed to Plouffe who has one around 2. Plouffe has struck out 57 times. That is 2 less than Mauer while having a 100 less at bats. It's not even close.
    Mauer's WAR is goosed as a part-time C.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Mauer's WAR is goosed as a part-time C.
    And part time DH and part time 1B. Those would seem to average out to be perhaps only slightly above a 3B in the "value added by position" category.

  16. #36
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer 70charger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeanS7921 View Post
    No Trevor Plouffe hasn't even been close to the level of Mauer's performance. Below average defense at 3rd base and a 330 OBP with a 259 Average doesn't translate into a better season than a player who leads the league in OBP and is in the top 5 in average with a war 3+ as opposed to Plouffe who has one around 2. Plouffe has struck out 57 times. That is 2 less than Mauer while having a 100 less at bats. It's not even close.
    WAR with respect to defensive position aside, I agree with this perspective. I don't think it's accurate to say that Plouffe has had a better season. From mid-May until his injury? Yup. (Again, not because Mauer is doing badly; because Plouffe beginning about May 15 was otherworldly.) But that's only about a month, and Mauer has been back to his old rock-solid, consistent self.

    Perhaps we're splitting hairs.

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