08-07-2012, 01:05 PM #41
Revere will probably hit .300 no matter what. That's still pretty good. But the difference in a player like that getting on base 33% of the time versus 36% of the time or better is pretty significant.
08-07-2012, 01:06 PM #42
I think that Revere could likely bring back more in the offseason, while Span would at the deadline.
I would rather keep both, trade Morneau for said high SP prospect, keep the OF defense stellar, and make Parmelee the everyday 1B next year.
08-07-2012, 01:08 PM #43
08-07-2012, 01:11 PM #44
08-07-2012, 01:16 PM #45
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I'm all for listening - he's not untouchable. But it's rare that teams trade two promising young players. The Twins and Rays did it with Delmon-Garza. The Yankees and Mariners did so last year with Moreno-Pineda. But that's all I can remember.
I honestly don't know which would fetch more back, Span or Revere, but I have to think Span would be easier to find a suitor. During the offseason, teams are going to look for a sure thing from the lead off, and Span seems more sure-thing-ish than Revere. And the Twins don't need to get as much back for Span either. It just seems so much more likely a deal could be completed with Span. Revere is more of a gamble for everyone involved.
08-07-2012, 01:17 PM #46
All three proposed OF are non-qualifiers, but here is their current valuation:
UZR/150- Defensive metrics 2011-12
As RP mentioned, these numbers for Revere would be higher if he were playing full-time in CF as Bourjos and Parra are. I can't say that any contender would want Revere over who they currently have, but Revere would be a cheap alternative in CF for the next 5 years, not only allowing dollars to be allocated to other areas of need, but also with his personality and weekly highlight reel defense, a ticket-revenue enhancer.
08-07-2012, 01:19 PM #47
08-07-2012, 01:19 PM #48
08-07-2012, 01:21 PM #49
08-07-2012, 01:23 PM #50
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08-07-2012, 01:24 PM #51
08-07-2012, 01:26 PM #52
08-07-2012, 01:30 PM #53
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To follow that up, I agree that Revere gives the Twins a better chance. I strongly disagree with trading Span before Revere because it is an EXCELLENT idea to trade high on Ben after this season. It's almost a guarantee that Revere will decline next year and his value couldn't get much higher. Both Revere AND Span should be sent packing if a good offer comes around because neither is necessary for the future. Hicks is our CF, Arcia is our RF, and Benson is our LF. Hicks, Benson, and Arcia will of course need a little more time to develop, but they are all knocking at the door in AA and it's possible we see them in September call-ups and certainly in Spring Training. I wouldn't mind holding on to Denard until the 2013 deadline rather than the offseason to be a stopgap in the meantime. Simply put, Denard is more 'proven' and can be counted on to compete at a consistent level. His value probably won't change much. Parmelee, Doumit, and Mastroianni are all reasonable stopgap solutions as well.
MY PLAN: Trade Revere in the 2012-2013 offseason.
Spring Training OF/Opening Day OF:
Willingham LF, Span CF, Mastroianni RF, 4th OF Parmelee (Parmelee splits time at 1st and DH in addition)
Here's where it gets interesting.
Think of the trio Benson, Arcia, and Hicks...
Trade Span at the 2013 deadline. If 1/3 Outfielders or more progress. Extremely likely.
Second Half OF (If one of Benson/Hicks progress):
Willingham LF, Hicks/Benson CF, Mastroianni RF, 4th OF Parmelee
Second Half OF (If only Arcia progresses):
Willingham LF, Mastroianni CF, Arcia RF, 4th OF Parmelee (Parmelee splits time at 1st and DH in addition)
Trade Willingham at the 2013 deadline. If 2/3 Outfielders or more progress. Somewhat likely.
Second Half OF (If both Arcia and one of Hicks/Benson progress)
Parmelee/Doumit LF, Hicks/Benson CF, Arcia RF, 4th OF Mastroianni
Second Half OF (If both Hicks and Benson progress; Not Arcia)
Benson LF, Hicks CF, Parmelee/Doumit RF, 4th OF Mastroianni
Consider trading Justin Morneau if 3/3 Outfielders progress. Unlikely.
Second Half OF
Benson LF, Hicks CF, Arcia RF, 4th OF Mastroianni
In hindsight, I actually like keeping Span last deadline. It's nice to have him around while we wait for players with more potential. None of these arrangements are intended to be competitive and you'll see that I am expecting the entire trio to be prepared for 2014, not 2013. Hopefully Span, Revere, and Willingham would all fetch good SP hauls. I love Denard Span and Ben Revere and would hate to see them go, I really do. The moves would definitely be very unpopular with the fanbase and I understand that. They both have great personalities and have become fan favorites. But what's to say we don't like the new guys too? Trading Morneau makes me very uncomfortable because I am one of the believers. If the outfield all pans out in 2013, the Twins really can't put Parmelee there and he would need to spend more time between 1B and DH. This is a solid plan to derail the logjam in the outfield and what I think would get the Twins back on track to contention!
Last edited by YourHouseIsMyHouse; 08-07-2012 at 01:42 PM.
08-07-2012, 01:32 PM #54
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08-07-2012, 01:33 PM #55
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08-07-2012, 01:35 PM #56
He is valuable, projecting out as #2 (#1, if he possibly catches Trout?) in SB and admittedly underrated as #2 in UZR for 2011-12 and batting .300, even with a low OBP, are still numbers virtually all players would kill for. If he does go on the block, the Twins can't repeat past faulty talent assessment mistakes like Garza, Gomez, Young, Dickey and Lohse.
08-07-2012, 01:35 PM #57
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08-07-2012, 01:36 PM #58
08-07-2012, 02:00 PM #59
08-07-2012, 02:24 PM #60
Is there a new valuation number floating around out there somewhere that corrects for Over-BABIP and Over-UZR metrics? It's my understanding that Baseball Reference uses lower defensive values.