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Thread: What would the return be on Revere?

  1. #41
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    But Wade Boggs, Lou Brock and Ty Cobb, and more directly to the Twins- Kirby Puckett and Rod Carew- made out OK relying on BABIP and I think they are regarded pretty highly as that sort of player. I believe a study has been done on Revere's contact rate, it's off the charts all the time, not just when he's playing out of his mind.
    Boggs, Carew, Cobb, and Brock all had OBP at least .050 higher than their BA (Boggs was .090 higher and only Brock was close to .050). Right now, Revere is sitting just .030 higher than his BA. That's what I mean by "riding a BABIP". If a guy is walking a lot, BABIP fluctuations don't hurt nearly as badly as if he's depending on that BABIP to get on base 95% of the time.

    Revere will probably hit .300 no matter what. That's still pretty good. But the difference in a player like that getting on base 33% of the time versus 36% of the time or better is pretty significant.

  2. #42
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    I think that Revere could likely bring back more in the offseason, while Span would at the deadline.

    I would rather keep both, trade Morneau for said high SP prospect, keep the OF defense stellar, and make Parmelee the everyday 1B next year.

  3. #43
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocketpig View Post
    Boggs, Carew, Cobb, and Brock all had OBP at least .050 higher than their BA (Boggs was .090 higher and only Brock was close to .050). Right now, Revere is sitting just .030 higher than his BA. That's what I mean by "riding a BABIP". If a guy is walking a lot, BABIP fluctuations don't hurt nearly as badly as if he's depending on that BABIP to get on base 95% of the time.

    Revere will probably hit .300 no matter what. That's still pretty good. But the difference in a player like that getting on base 33% of the time versus 36% of the time or better is pretty significant.
    I wouldn't mind that .330 OBP batting 9th next year. Clearly not if he is batting second (or first).

  4. #44
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    .300 average, projects to 40+ SB, and ranked as the #2 UZR rated OF for 2011-12 is not elite?
    No, just as Denard Span isn't elite. It's good but not elite. For a player to be considered "elite" status for me, he has to be in the top three at his position at any given time. Revere isn't that guy and I don't think he will be.

    But that doesn't mean he's not valuable.

  5. #45
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    I'm all for listening - he's not untouchable. But it's rare that teams trade two promising young players. The Twins and Rays did it with Delmon-Garza. The Yankees and Mariners did so last year with Moreno-Pineda. But that's all I can remember.

    I honestly don't know which would fetch more back, Span or Revere, but I have to think Span would be easier to find a suitor. During the offseason, teams are going to look for a sure thing from the lead off, and Span seems more sure-thing-ish than Revere. And the Twins don't need to get as much back for Span either. It just seems so much more likely a deal could be completed with Span. Revere is more of a gamble for everyone involved.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinswon1991 View Post
    If the Twins think he is a 3 win player they would be crazy to trade him but he is playing way over his head. Scannin MLB and MiLB rosters of potential conteders for 2013 I seel him as being a #4 OF on every team except MIL and CIN. We arent talking about a highly valuable asset here. Parra and Bourjos are two guys who will be on the market who I would much rather have due to their all around defensive ability and offensive game.
    And yet these numbers are similar to his entire MiLB career.

    All three proposed OF are non-qualifiers, but here is their current valuation:

    Revere $12.7
    Parra $8.3
    Bourjos $6.8

    UZR/150- Defensive metrics 2011-12

    Revere 18.2
    Bourjos 16.3
    Parra 11.7

    As RP mentioned, these numbers for Revere would be higher if he were playing full-time in CF as Bourjos and Parra are. I can't say that any contender would want Revere over who they currently have, but Revere would be a cheap alternative in CF for the next 5 years, not only allowing dollars to be allocated to other areas of need, but also with his personality and weekly highlight reel defense, a ticket-revenue enhancer.

  7. #47
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    I'm all for listening - he's not untouchable. But it's rare that teams trade two promising young players. The Twins and Rays did it with Delmon-Garza. The Yankees and Mariners did so last year with Moreno-Pineda. But that's all I can remember.
    Damn, John just went and played the Delmon/Garza card.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by shanewahl View Post
    I wouldn't mind that .330 OBP batting 9th next year. Clearly not if he is batting second (or first).
    Yes. I proposed this earlier in the season, with Mauer rightfully moving up to the 2 spot.

  9. #49
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Yes. I proposed this earlier in the season, with Mauer rightfully moving up to the 2 spot.
    Mauer should have been entrenched into the two slot five years ago.

    Sigh. It's just not going to happen. Gardy toyed with the idea for awhile but then realized that Mauer didn't play second base so a move had to be made.

  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    And yet these numbers are similar to his entire MiLB career.

    All three proposed OF are non-qualifiers, but here is their current valuation:

    Revere $12.7
    Parra $8.3
    Bourjos $6.8

    UZR/150- Defensive metrics 2011-12

    Revere 18.2
    Bourjos 16.3
    Parra 11.7

    As RP mentioned, these numbers for Revere would be higher if he were playing full-time in CF as Bourjos and Parra are. I can't say that any contender would want Revere over who they currently have, but Revere would be a cheap alternative in CF for the next 5 years, not only allowing dollars to be allocated to other areas of need, but also with his personality and weekly highlight reel defense, a ticket-revenue enhancer.
    Revere has nice range thus the web gem type range but when adding in arm he cant hold Parra or Bourjos's jocks as a defender.

  11. #51
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocketpig View Post
    Mauer should have been entrenched into the two slot five years ago.

    Sigh. It's just not going to happen. Gardy toyed with the idea for awhile but then realized that Mauer didn't play second base so a move had to be made.
    Yes. The skull density there is mind-boggling.

  12. #52
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinswon1991 View Post
    Revere has nice range thus the web gem type range but when adding in arm he cant hold Parra or Bourjos's jocks as a defender.
    You can't honestly believe that arm is as important as range. You just can't.

  13. #53
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    c. Revere is before his prime right now while Span at 29 next season will be at the apex of his prime and will be downhill from then

    And yes Revere does matter and I think that he will give the Twins a better possibility of competing than Span.
    This was the biggest thing I disagree with. How often do we see players in their 30's peak? Cuddyer and Willingham are a few examples that we have seen first hand. I don't buy that there is a prime in baseball unlike other sports. It's not very physical and is much more mental. A player in his 'physical prime', or in that 27-29 year old range, isn't significantly more likely to be in his 'career prime'.

    To follow that up, I agree that Revere gives the Twins a better chance. I strongly disagree with trading Span before Revere because it is an EXCELLENT idea to trade high on Ben after this season. It's almost a guarantee that Revere will decline next year and his value couldn't get much higher. Both Revere AND Span should be sent packing if a good offer comes around because neither is necessary for the future. Hicks is our CF, Arcia is our RF, and Benson is our LF. Hicks, Benson, and Arcia will of course need a little more time to develop, but they are all knocking at the door in AA and it's possible we see them in September call-ups and certainly in Spring Training. I wouldn't mind holding on to Denard until the 2013 deadline rather than the offseason to be a stopgap in the meantime. Simply put, Denard is more 'proven' and can be counted on to compete at a consistent level. His value probably won't change much. Parmelee, Doumit, and Mastroianni are all reasonable stopgap solutions as well.

    MY PLAN: Trade Revere in the 2012-2013 offseason.
    Spring Training OF/Opening Day OF:
    Willingham LF, Span CF, Mastroianni RF, 4th OF Parmelee (Parmelee splits time at 1st and DH in addition)

    Here's where it gets interesting.
    Think of the trio Benson, Arcia, and Hicks...

    Trade Span at the 2013 deadline. If 1/3 Outfielders or more progress. Extremely likely.
    Second Half OF (If one of Benson/Hicks progress):
    Willingham LF, Hicks/Benson CF, Mastroianni RF, 4th OF Parmelee

    Second Half OF (If only Arcia progresses):
    Willingham LF, Mastroianni CF, Arcia RF, 4th OF Parmelee (Parmelee splits time at 1st and DH in addition)

    Trade Willingham at the 2013 deadline. If 2/3 Outfielders or more progress. Somewhat likely.
    Second Half OF (If both Arcia and one of Hicks/Benson progress)
    Parmelee/Doumit LF, Hicks/Benson CF, Arcia RF, 4th OF Mastroianni


    Second Half OF (If both Hicks and Benson progress; Not Arcia)
    Benson LF, Hicks CF, Parmelee/Doumit RF, 4th OF Mastroianni

    Consider trading Justin Morneau if 3/3 Outfielders progress. Unlikely.

    Second Half OF
    Benson LF, Hicks CF, Arcia RF, 4th OF Mastroianni

    In hindsight, I actually like keeping Span last deadline. It's nice to have him around while we wait for players with more potential. None of these arrangements are intended to be competitive and you'll see that I am expecting the entire trio to be prepared for 2014, not 2013. Hopefully Span, Revere, and Willingham would all fetch good SP hauls. I love Denard Span and Ben Revere and would hate to see them go, I really do. The moves would definitely be very unpopular with the fanbase and I understand that. They both have great personalities and have become fan favorites. But what's to say we don't like the new guys too? Trading Morneau makes me very uncomfortable because I am one of the believers. If the outfield all pans out in 2013, the Twins really can't put Parmelee there and he would need to spend more time between 1B and DH. This is a solid plan to derail the logjam in the outfield and what I think would get the Twins back on track to contention!
    Last edited by YourHouseIsMyHouse; 08-07-2012 at 01:42 PM.

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by rocketpig View Post
    You can't honestly believe that arm is as important as range. You just can't.



    Nope range is the most important but you cant be an elite defender without having great range and a good arm.

  15. #55
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Not me

    Quote Originally Posted by shanewahl View Post
    I think that Revere could likely bring back more in the offseason, while Span would at the deadline.

    I would rather keep both, trade Morneau for said high SP prospect, keep the OF defense stellar, and make Parmelee the everyday 1B next year.
    I don't think a team so power challenged in the middle infield can afford to carry two slap hitters in the outfield as regulars. Either Span or Revere must go. I'd rather move Span because of Revere's explosiveness on the bases. If only an outfielder is moved, the Twins kind of owe it to Parmelee to give him a shot in RF. If Morneau is moved as well, you are banking on Parm as your 1B. Actually, I think the Twins should trade Morneau as well as one of Span/Revere.

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocketpig View Post
    No, just as Denard Span isn't elite. It's good but not elite. For a player to be considered "elite" status for me, he has to be in the top three at his position at any given time. Revere isn't that guy and I don't think he will be.

    But that doesn't mean he's not valuable.
    Under those strict criteria he's definitely not elite and without additional power and more plate discipline he has no hopes of ever becoming Josh Hamilton, but then, you are a demanding grader.

    He is valuable, projecting out as #2 (#1, if he possibly catches Trout?) in SB and admittedly underrated as #2 in UZR for 2011-12 and batting .300, even with a low OBP, are still numbers virtually all players would kill for. If he does go on the block, the Twins can't repeat past faulty talent assessment mistakes like Garza, Gomez, Young, Dickey and Lohse.

  17. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    Revere matters and to make myself clear:

    Span has a higher likehood of backsliding than Revere

    based on:

    a. Revere is a better player right now
    b. Span's major medical issues (concussion and inner ear - yes they are asymptomatic now, but not sure for how long)
    c. Revere is before his prime right now while Span at 29 next season will be at the apex of his prime and will be downhill from then

    And yes Revere does matter and I think that he will give the Twins a better possibility of competing than Span.
    I'm not sure I agree with this at all. Revere has more range (though Span is above average in the field) with lousy arm. Span has more power and gets on base more. He's not quite as good of a base stealer. Span is the better player right now. You are correct that Span will start his decline phase too, but I'm highly skeptical of guys whose only tool is speed and rely on a high BABIP. He's one tweaked hammy away from being a lousy player. I agree that Span gets traded, but let's be realistic. Revere is not an upgrade.

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by stringer bell View Post
    I don't think a team so power challenged in the middle infield can afford to carry two slap hitters in the outfield as regulars. Either Span or Revere must go. I'd rather move Span because of Revere's explosiveness on the bases. If only an outfielder is moved, the Twins kind of owe it to Parmelee to give him a shot in RF. If Morneau is moved as well, you are banking on Parm as your 1B. Actually, I think the Twins should trade Morneau as well as one of Span/Revere.
    This, but only if they don't screw up on the acquired trading assets.
    Last edited by jokin; 08-07-2012 at 01:56 PM.

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinswon1991 View Post
    Nope range is the most important but you cant be an elite defender without having great range and a good arm.
    Only in UZR, I guess.

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    You are correct that Span will start his decline phase too, but I'm highly skeptical of guys whose only tool is speed and rely on a high BABIP. He's one tweaked hammy away from being a lousy player. I agree that Span gets traded, but let's be realistic. Revere is not an upgrade.
    What player isn't one hamstring injury away from being a lousy player? Revere is only 24, virtually everybody last year said he had hit his ceiling and now look where he is. I agree that he likely will regress back closer to .300, but look what he's been able to accomplish during his "out of his head" stretch even with Mauer behind him in a mini-slump (206/292/353 in last 9 games). And he's not just a better base-stealer, but a much better guy on the bases, stealing and everything else, Span at times can look lost, confused, asleep or scared on the basepaths. It seems the (admittedly flawed) Sabre-valuation numbers are overvaluing Revere and the Sabre-guys want to put a stop to the madness.

    Is there a new valuation number floating around out there somewhere that corrects for Over-BABIP and Over-UZR metrics? It's my understanding that Baseball Reference uses lower defensive values.

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