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Thread: What would the return be on Revere?

  1. #21
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    Because:
    a. he is younger
    b. he is cheaper
    c. he is better now
    d. Span will probably bring something more
    e. Span will be over the hill sooner (when the Twins will be competitive)
    f. unless the Twins get starting pitching what Revere does will not matter and
    g. by then Hicks/Buxton/Benson will be ready.

    Want more reasons?
    So you keep a guy that has a possibility to backslide just because it won't matter how he does if the team is awful again? That doesn't make any sense.

    If you have a wealth of outfielders coming through the minors and a guy who is playing well now but could revert to a pretty mediocre player overnight, it most certainly matters how he performs or you might end up with a nearly worthless Revere trade chip when Arcia/Hicks/Benson arrive.

    You can make the argument that trading Span first is the smarter move but arguing that Revere doesn't matter is... illogical.

  2. #22
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    I'm not the biggest Revere fan, in part b/c I'm not convinced he can do this year in and year out. Between Revere and Span, I'd trade the guy that nets the most value, though I admit that Revere in my opinion is nothing more than a stop gap until Hicks or Benson is ready. I would guess that Span is going to get more value because he's an established player, whereas other GMs might like Revere's cost, but still see the risk. The nice thing is that if Revere does this again next year, and Hicks/Arcia/Benson all do well in AAA, we could be looking at the exact same situation next season.

    This offseason, trade Span for something nice. Move Revere to center and let Parmelee man right.
    Trade Morneau at the trade deadline and move Parmelee to 1B. Call up one of the outfielders (most likey Arcia).
    Next offseason, trade Revere assuming that Hicks and/or Benson is ready. Keep the other one in AAA and consider flipping Willingham at that deadline (or potentially move him to DH to open up the last OF spot).

  3. #23
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocketpig View Post
    So you keep a guy that has a possibility to backslide just because it won't matter how he does if the team is awful again? That doesn't make any sense.

    If you have a wealth of outfielders coming through the minors and a guy who is playing well now but could revert to a pretty mediocre player overnight, it most certainly matters how he performs or you might end up with a nearly worthless Revere trade chip when Arcia/Hicks/Benson arrive.

    You can make the argument that trading Span first is the smarter move but arguing that Revere doesn't matter is... illogical.
    Revere matters and to make myself clear:

    Span has a higher likehood of backsliding than Revere

    based on:

    a. Revere is a better player right now
    b. Span's major medical issues (concussion and inner ear - yes they are asymptomatic now, but not sure for how long)
    c. Revere is before his prime right now while Span at 29 next season will be at the apex of his prime and will be downhill from then

    And yes Revere does matter and I think that he will give the Twins a better possibility of competing than Span.
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  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocketpig View Post
    So you keep a guy that has a possibility to backslide just because it won't matter how he does if the team is awful again? That doesn't make any sense.

    If you have a wealth of outfielders coming through the minors and a guy who is playing well now but could revert to a pretty mediocre player overnight, it most certainly matters how he performs or you might end up with a nearly worthless Revere trade chip when Arcia/Hicks/Benson arrive.

    You can make the argument that trading Span first is the smarter move but arguing that Revere doesn't matter is... illogical.
    I don't get it. The numbers guys always preach and teach us proles to look at the previous minor league numbers as the most reliable predictor and indicator of future results. What Revere is doing now production-wise is what he has done from the day he signed with the Twins. Based on his consistent number production in his professional career, his trade value, whatever it is to the rest of the American and National League, likely won't change in the next few years- unless he increases his power or decreases his speed.

  5. #25
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I don't get it. The numbers guys always preach and teach us proles to look at the previous minor league numbers as the most reliable predictor and indicator of future results. What Revere is doing now production-wise is what he has done from the day he signed with the Twins. Based on his consistent number production in his professional career, his trade value, whatever it is to the rest of the American and National League, likely won't change in the next few years- unless he increases his power or decreases his speed.
    Revere spent most of the minors with a BABIP in the .330-.340 range. Right now, it's sitting at a rather unsustainable .360.

    His slugging is quite a bit higher this season as well, though I think that has more to do with maturation than any kind of aberration. If he's making good contact, the extra base hits will come as he ages.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocketpig View Post
    Revere spent most of the minors with a BABIP in the .330-.340 range. Right now, it's sitting at a rather unsustainable .360.

    His slugging is quite a bit higher this season as well, though I think that has more to do with maturation than any kind of aberration. If he's making good contact, the extra base hits will come as he ages.
    And every other GM in baseball doesn't know, and factor in, these facts into how much they project and value Revere?

  7. #27
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    And every other GM in baseball doesn't know, and factor in, these facts into how much they project and value Revere?
    I'm sure they do, some more than others. I'm not saying that Revere needs to be traded. I'm suggesting that it's in the best interest of the Twins to dangle him and see if anyone bites.

    The more players you offer on the vine, the more likely you are to find a suitor who is willing to give up something worthwhile. Some teams might want Span while others might be more cost-conscious and prefer Revere.

  8. #28
    If the plan is to plug Parmalee in at the RF position I would rather see Revere's range in center. Span would seemingly bring a bigger return tradewise and imo, Revere's stolen bases would make up for the loss of Span's OBP run wise.

  9. #29
    I would guess Revere would slot in as a #4 outfielder on most contenders next year and non contenders never give up prospects of any value. I see Reveres value being very minimal in a trade. Heck, the Twins didnt think enough of him to give him a fulltime job this spring so they should deal him for a A ball arm with modest upside as they are playing with house money at this point.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocketpig View Post
    I'm sure they do, some more than others. I'm not saying that Revere needs to be traded. I'm suggesting that it's in the best interest of the Twins to dangle him and see if anyone bites.

    The more players you offer on the vine, the more likely you are to find a suitor who is willing to give up something worthwhile. Some teams might want Span while others might be more cost-conscious and prefer Revere.
    The Twins FO would be guilty of malfeasance, given the current state of the Twins, if they aren't offering everyone- on every vine- all for the hope of getting something close to the right price in return. I just took issue with your expectation and characterization of Revere's game that he will possibly "revert to a mediocre player overnight."

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinswon1991 View Post
    I would guess Revere would slot in as a #4 outfielder on most contenders next year and non contenders never give up prospects of any value. I see Reveres value being very minimal in a trade. Heck, the Twins didnt think enough of him to give him a fulltime job this spring so they should deal him for a A ball arm with modest upside as they are playing with house money at this point.
    Uhh, you do realize that he is in position to contend for the batting title and his WAR of 2.8 is just short of Torii Hunter's 2.9? He's also the #2 ranked OF in UZR for 2011-12.

    You are on the right track in his trade value, a pitching-rich team in dire need of an inexpensive CF is the most likely suitor (is there currently one out there?).
    Last edited by jokin; 08-07-2012 at 12:29 PM.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    The Twins FO would be guilty of malfeasance, given the current state of the Twins, if they aren't offering everyone- on every vine- all for the hope of getting something close to the right price in return. I just took issue with your expectation and characterization of Revere's game that he will possibly "revert to a mediocre player overnight."
    Well, I'm generally down on burners who rely on BABIP. Baseball history hasn't been terribly kind to that sort of player. Right now, Revere is riding high. If he stays healthy, he'll be a good centerfielder who hits around .300 but doesn't walk enough to be elite. I'm not saying he's going to fall on his face (though one minor lower body injury could definitely do that), I'm only raising the question of whether now is a good time to consider moving him because he's playing out of his mind.

    Like most of the board, I'm tired of seeing the Twins sell low on players and Revere might be a good opportunity to reverse that trend.

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocketpig View Post
    Well, I'm generally down on burners who rely on BABIP. Baseball history hasn't been terribly kind to that sort of player. Right now, Revere is riding high. If he stays healthy, he'll be a good centerfielder who hits around .300 but doesn't walk enough to be elite. I'm not saying he's going to fall on his face (though one minor lower body injury could definitely do that), I'm only raising the question of whether now is a good time to consider moving him because he's playing out of his mind.

    Like most of the board, I'm tired of seeing the Twins sell low on players and Revere might be a good opportunity to reverse that trend.
    I second your second paragraph and agree with the last sentence of your first.

    But Wade Boggs, Lou Brock and Ty Cobb, and more directly to the Twins- Kirby Puckett and Rod Carew- made out OK relying on BABIP and I think they are regarded pretty highly as that sort of player. I believe a study has been done on Revere's contact rate, it's off the charts all the time, not just when he's playing out of his mind.
    Last edited by jokin; 08-07-2012 at 12:37 PM.

  14. #34
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Uhh, you do realize that he is in position to contend for the batting title and his WAR of 2.8 is just short of Torii Hunter's 2.9? He's also the #2 ranked OF in UZR for 2011-12.

    You are on the right track in his trade value, a pitching-rich team in dire need of an inexpensive CF is the most likely suitor (is there currently one out there?).
    The Reds.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Uhh, you do realize that he is in position to contend for the batting title and his WAR of 2.8 is just short of Torii Hunter's 2.9?

    You are on the right track in his trade value, a pitching-rich team in dire need of an inexpensive CF is the most likely suitor (is there currently one out there?).
    If the Twins think he is a 3 win player they would be crazy to trade him but he is playing way over his head. Scannin MLB and MiLB rosters of potential conteders for 2013 I seel him as being a #4 OF on every team except MIL and CIN. We arent talking about a highly valuable asset here. Parra and Bourjos are two guys who will be on the market who I would much rather have due to their all around defensive ability and offensive game.

  16. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by rocketpig View Post
    <snip> Right now, Revere is riding high. If he stays healthy, he'll be a good centerfielder who hits around .300 but doesn't walk enough to be elite. I'm not saying he's going to fall on his face (though one minor lower body injury could definitely do that), I'm only raising the question of whether now is a good time to consider moving him because he's playing out of his mind.

    Like most of the board, I'm tired of seeing the Twins sell low on players and Revere might be a good opportunity to reverse that trend.
    Exactly this. No requirement to move him, but we'd be foolish to not see what kind of offers we receive. It's especially so, given that's it's probable that he's playing as well as we're ever likely to see. So, happy to keep him, happy to trade him for the right offer.

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's exactly what Rocketpig is saying.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocketpig View Post
    Well, I'm generally down on burners who rely on BABIP. Baseball history hasn't been terribly kind to that sort of player. Right now, Revere is riding high. If he stays healthy, he'll be a good centerfielder who hits around .300 but doesn't walk enough to be elite.
    .300 average, projects to 40+ SB, and ranked as the #2 UZR rated OF for 2011-12 is not elite?

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by deanlambrecht View Post
    Exactly this. No requirement to move him, but we'd be foolish to not see what kind of offers we receive. It's especially so, given that's it's probable that he's playing as well as we're ever likely to see. So, happy to keep him, happy to trade him for the right offer.

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's exactly what Rocketpig is saying.
    Yes, but I think RP thinks his numbers are unsustainable, when in fact, his MiLB numbers suggest he can maintain a pace close to this- an elite level for as long as he maintains his speed- especially with Mauer and Willingham behind him for plate protection.

    As I stated, the Twins better be listening for offers on EVERYONE.

  19. #39
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    Revere is the kind of guy the Twins hold onto, whether he's producing or not--so I see the chances of trading him at pretty much nil, despite however it makes sense.

  20. #40
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinswon1991 View Post
    Scannin MLB and MiLB rosters of potential conteders for 2013 I seel him as being a #4 OF on every team except MIL and CIN. .
    um.... MIL a contender? I guess as much as the Twins are

    The Phillies will be all out for a lead-off man/CF this off-season, and Span would be a perfect fit for them. Revere too, but Span and the Phillies will be a match made in heaven and the Twins could get a nice return back.
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