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Thread: What would the return be on Revere?

  1. #1
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    What would the return be on Revere?

    Just throwing around ideas but right now, Revere is tearing the cover off the ball, one single at a time. He's a 2.5 WAR player in RF, a number that would surely raise with a shift to centerfield. With all the Twins prospects coming down the road, it's starting to make a lot of sense to move Revere this offseason and hold on to Span.

    This is what I would consider doing this offseason:

    - Trade Revere this offseason. I don't see how his value is going to get higher than if he finishes the season with a .330 BA and stellar defense. He should bring back a high upside starter plus a low minors guy with that kind of season under his belt. Revere has a lot of room to backslide with those numbers but unless he starts developing power, he has little room to grow as a player.

    - Replace Revere with Parmelee. Some time early next season, Arcia is going to be knocking on the door. This gets Chris some playing time in the meantime for the next move...

    - Trade Morneau at the 2013 deadline. If you can't move Justin this offseason, keep him for next deadline and hope he keeps hitting. If he does, he will bring back a solid prospect in return.

    - Hold on to Span until the 2013 offseason, at which point the second of Hicks/Arcia/Benson should be knocking on the door. Span will still have two more seasons on his contract (one mandatory year, one optional) and should demand a decent return.

    Four moves and you've completely altered the organization for the long term while not sacrificing a ton of offense in the short term (hopefully).

  2. #2
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    RE: Trade Revere - As much as it makes sense to do, I'm not sure the return on him is all that high. If his upside is still a Juan Pierre-type, and as you say he is already basically at his ceiling, if you're another team, do you give up a high upside pitcher?!?!?! I guess I probably would not, but it only takes one team...bring it on!!!

  3. #3
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    We may have to remove our expectation about major league starting pitching, but the plan is sound.

    I would suggest trading Willingham instead of Revere and moving Revere to left. I am very concerned that the Willingham of 2014 will be a liability on the field and his bat will drop to the median of left fielders.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sorney View Post
    RE: Trade Revere - As much as it makes sense to do, I'm not sure the return on him is all that high. If his upside is still a Juan Pierre-type, and as you say he is already basically at his ceiling, if you're another team, do you give up a high upside pitcher?!?!?! I guess I probably would not, but it only takes one team...bring it on!!!
    Pierre is a good comp. He has been traded a few times. After 2005, he was traded for Ricky Nolasco and Sergio Mitre. Both were prospects at the time. Nolasco was a B prospect and in the Cubs top 10. It can happen which sets our expectations, but the trade environment for starting pitching appears much more difficult today.

  5. #5
    [QUOTE=rocketpig;43219]Just throwing around ideas but right now, Revere is tearing the cover off the ball, one single at a time. He's a 2.5 WAR player in RF, a number that would surely raise with a shift to centerfield. With all the Twins prospects coming down the road, it's starting to make a lot of sense to move Revere this offseason and hold on to Span.[QUOTE]



    Rocket - I've been saying this for months. Way to steal my thunder!

    I love the scenario, but I don't think you'll get the high-end pitching prospect that you would hope to get in return. The Juan Pierre deal was 7 years ago and many things have changed since then. Teams are not going to part with those pitchers for a Revere-type player.

  6. #6
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    Span still has the most trade value and Revere is an obvious in-house replacement for him. I still think Span should be moved this off season. He's a 4.5-5 WAR player under a great contract, if the Twins can't get a Latos/Gonzalez/Pence like return for him, hold onto him and we have this OF arrangement again next year.

  7. #7
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    While I think Pierre is a good comp, his trade isn't really applicable to Revere. Pierre has only posted an OPS+ of over 100 twice in his career and when he went to the Cubs, he only had one year of control left. The year before, he also posted a very pedestrian 84 OPS+. Right now, Revere is posting an OPS+ of 108 and can't be a FA until 2017 or something like that.

  8. #8
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    I think that it is silly to even think about trading the younger guy who hasn't reached his prime yet and is making minimum and has a higher WAR and more years of team control than the older guy who is signed to a reasonable contact. They got to trade Span. Revere will be a better player (he is a better player now ) and Span's value will not be much higher (because of the contract and because of the risk)
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  9. #9
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    I think that it is silly to even think about trading the younger guy who hasn't reached his prime yet and is making minimum and has a higher WAR and more years of team control than the older guy who is signed to a reasonable contact. They got to trade Span. Revere will be a better player (he is a better player now ) and Span's value will not be much higher (because of the contract and because of the risk)
    What happens if Revere comes out and posts a .650 OPS next season? It's entirely possible and some would argue likely... His BABIP is at .360 for the season, which is pretty lucky, even for a guy with his speed. He hasn't shown Denard's ability to take a walk, which is a good way to prevent huge fluctuations in OBP in unlucky BABIP years.

    If Denard is healthy, he's close to a lock for a .720 OPS with a .350 OBP. Revere is too reliant on BABIP to be considered a lock for much of anything at this point and is performing quite well this season... Why not trade high on the guy?

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    Quote Originally Posted by rocketpig View Post
    What happens if Revere comes out and posts a .650 OPS next season? It's entirely possible and some would argue likely... His BABIP is at .360 for the season, which is pretty lucky, even for a guy with his speed. He hasn't shown Denard's ability to take a walk, which is a good way to prevent huge fluctuations in OBP in unlucky BABIP years.

    If Denard is healthy, he's close to a lock for a .720 OPS with a .350 OBP. Revere is too reliant on BABIP to be considered a lock for much of anything at this point and is performing quite well this season... Why not trade high on the guy?

    Revere is always gonna be one of those guys that lives off a high BABIP. Hell fair or not Ichiro has a career .347 BABIP and he's a pretty similar player to Revere. I'd personally rather move Revere then Span...but it's crazy to think Revere can live in that .340 BABIP range for his career.

  11. #11
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DPJ View Post
    Revere is always gonna be one of those guys that lives off a high BABIP. Hell fair or not Ichiro has a career .347 BABIP and he's a pretty similar player to Revere. I'd personally rather move Revere then Span...but it's crazy to think Revere can live in that .340 BABIP range for his career.
    I assume you meant "not crazy" to assume Revere can consistently BABIP at .340. I agree with that.

    The thing is that he's 20 points higher than that right now. If he BABIPs at .330 next season, he's suddenly a .300 hitter with a .330 OBP. A far cry from a .330/.360 guy with no power he is today.

    I'm not saying that Revere is going to collapse, all I'm saying is that there's a good chance he never gets much better than he is today.

    And it's a good idea to sell high on guys like that, especially if you have another guy cost-controlled for three years and a wealth of OF prospects beating on the door.

  12. #12
    Super Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    I would Trade Revere if he brought back Starting Pitching. I would not trade him for a SS. I'd be real sad to see him go but for Pitching I'd say lets do it.

    Now... If choosing between Revere and Span... I'd keep Revere straight up and I also believe that Span fetches a higher return. So Span is still the guy to move that makes sense. I'd also be sad to see Span go... But for Pitching... I'd say lets do it.

    On the Subject of Parmelee... Keep him out of the OF if Willingham is also in the outfield. Having two slow footed corners in the OF is a real bad idea. When you are trying to build a pitching staff... You need every bit of Defense that you can muster. Those balls that Revere and Span get to are extremely important to your pitching staff. One ball not caught in the OF can lead to 3 runs scored that didn't have to and that can cause inflated ERA's. In my opinion, You can sacrifice one OF position range wise for a plus power guy. Sacrificing two is pushing it.

    Also, If you have two slow footed OF Corners. You will need Revere in CF more than ever.

  13. #13
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
    On the Subject of Parmelee... Keep him out of the OF if Willingham is also in the outfield. Having two slow footed corners in the OF is a real bad idea. When you are trying to build a pitching staff... You need every bit of Defense that you can muster. Those balls that Revere and Span get to are extremely important to your pitching staff. One ball not caught in the OF can lead to 3 runs scored that didn't have to and that can cause inflated ERA's. In my opinion, You can sacrifice one OF position range wise for a plus power guy. Sacrificing two is pushing it.

    Also, If you have two slow footed OF Corners. You will need Revere in CF more than ever.
    It definitely makes for an ugly OF to start the 2013 season. My hope would be that Arcia, Hicks, or Benson would arrive early enough in 2013 to make it palatable.

    As with anything on a team this questionable, lots of "ifs".

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocketpig View Post
    And it's a good idea to sell high on guys like that, especially if you have another guy cost-controlled for three years and a wealth of OF prospects beating on the door.
    No doubt, I'd finally love to see the Twins sell high on a player then low. But I just really have my doubt for what Revere could bring back. Young, cheap MLB ready pitching is the gold currency of baseball right now and I just don't see Revere fetching all that much in a trade.

  15. #15
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DPJ View Post
    No doubt, I'd finally love to see the Twins sell high on a player then low. But I just really have my doubt for what Revere could bring back. Young, cheap MLB ready pitching is the gold currency of baseball right now and I just don't see Revere fetching all that much in a trade.
    Yep. I don't know what it's going to take to get a decent starting pitcher from another team at this point. I was tossing out this idea because to some teams, Revere might be more alluring than Span because he is stupid-cheap and team-controlled for many more years.

  16. #16
    I like the thought process. But, if I had my choice, I'd prefer to move Span and keep Revere. I know on paper (as you've laid out) Span should be the better player. But Revere just keeps proving people wrong at ever level. Wouldn't it suck to trade him and find out he just keeps getting better? Yes, he could regress too. But we are just guessing. We know what we have in Span. He's solid. But he's also older, not getting better and had concussion issues. Bottom line, one of them should be moved. Let the market decide who (based on return).

  17. #17
    I think both Revere and Span (and Morneau) should be on the trading block this offseason. Who do you trade?? Whoever brings the most. Trade any one of the three if you can get a solid MLB starter...then pull the others back. Thats simple. Yes, no more OF prospects or older utility IF.

  18. #18
    I like your basic point: trade high on a player instead of waiting for them to fall down and then trading low. I just think most others will believe he is going to fall back and so the return for Revere would not be all that much. Personally I would rather trade Span: more expensive and fewer years under team control and he will bring more in trade. Plus he also has risk for falling back, in his case over injury concerns.

  19. #19
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocketpig View Post
    What happens if Revere comes out and posts a .650 OPS next season? It's entirely possible and some would argue likely... His BABIP is at .360 for the season, which is pretty lucky, even for a guy with his speed. He hasn't shown Denard's ability to take a walk, which is a good way to prevent huge fluctuations in OBP in unlucky BABIP years.

    If Denard is healthy, he's close to a lock for a .720 OPS with a .350 OBP. Revere is too reliant on BABIP to be considered a lock for much of anything at this point and is performing quite well this season... Why not trade high on the guy?
    Because:
    a. he is younger
    b. he is cheaper
    c. he is better now
    d. Span will probably bring something more
    e. Span will be over the hill sooner (when the Twins will be competitive)
    f. unless the Twins get starting pitching what Revere does will not matter and
    g. by then Hicks/Buxton/Benson will be ready.

    Want more reasons?
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  20. #20
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    It's worth dangling - but it's not going to happen.

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